The culmination of the PGA season is here, the playoff finale also known as The TOUR Championship will take place at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, GA. The top-30 ranked golfers in FedEx Cup (FEC) standings will battle to no longer be the golfer with the most accumulated FEC points over the season, but will be competing to win the tournament: the golfer who wins the TOUR Championship, wins the FedEx Cup Championship and all the cash ($15 million in earnings).
The format will be completely different this week, golfers will start on the leaderboard based on their points coming into the TOUR Championship. The golfer with the most FEC points, Justin Thomas, will start in first place at 10-under, second place starting two back at eight-under, third place starting at seven-under, so on and so forth while those ranked from 26th to 30th, will start at even par. This will be completely different than betting a regular-season tournament (or even last week), the top of the leaderboard will have an enormous advantage over the field to claim the top spot. Here is one of my favorites this week.
Round 3 Bet
Justin Rose +100 over Rickie Fowler +120Sticking with the theme of elite ball-strikers who are having bad putting weeks, Rose ranked dead last today losing over three strokes on the greens and hitting only 55% of greens in the second round. Rose is not going to claim back-to-back FedEx Cup titles, but he should play well tomorrow to best Rickie Fowler by keeping his irons hot, gaining close to 1.5 through approach over the first two rounds. Rickie is doing what he’s done all season, which is bail himself out with the putter ranking inside the top 10, but losing strokes through ball-striking ranking 28th this week. Both will be aggressive and attack pins early, which bodes well for Rose who ranks first in SG: Tee-to-green over the last 24 rounds on Donald Ross courses.
Round 2 Bet
Patrick Cantlay to Win +1000 (With Starting Strokes)If there’s someone who can ruin Brooks Koepka’s storybook ending to a fantastic season, it’s Cantlay. He ranked first in the field in SG: Approach (gaining four strokes on the field), but had his third worst putting round of the season (losing 2.2 strokes). Less than 25% of golfers gained more than a stroke on the greens in Round 1 and Cantlay was clearly not one of the few. He should improve with the putter Friday, gaining an average of 0.55 strokes over the season and ranks sixth in SG: Putting on bermuda over the last eight rounds.
Round 1 Bets
Jon Rahm to Win +1100 (without FedEx Cup starting points)There is little value if you’re betting the tournament with the FedEx Cup starting points. Justin Thomas, who’s starting in the No. 1 spot at 10-under par, is gaining an average of three strokes total on the field in the playoffs, which ranks No. 1. Thomas, Patrick Cantlay and Brooks Koepka are going to be tough to catch, but there’s still some value by removing the starting points/position. In the playoffs, Rahm not only ranks inside the top five in birdies or better gained, but also holds the third spot in SG: Total behind only Thomas and Cantlay. Last week was the first time Rahm finished outside the top five in SG: Ball striking over his last three tournaments as well as the first time he lost strokes through approach since May. The Spaniard has made the TOUR Championship since 2017, has not finished outside the top five so far in this year’s FEC tournaments and ranks fifth in SG: Putting on Bermuda greens over the last 12 rounds.
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