Medinah Country Club will play host to the top-70 FedEx Cup ranked golfers after last week’s first playoff cut all looking to make the top-30 for the final leg of the playoffs, The Tour Championship at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta. Medinah has played host to prestigious tournaments over the years like The U.S. Open (1945, 1975, 1990), The PGA Championship (1999, 2006) and the Ryder Cup (2012); this week will be no different adding the BMW Championship to its illustrious list. Let’s get into the bets I like for this week:
Round 4 Bets
Lucas Glover Top-Five +350There’s still a golf tournament going on even if everyone is playing for second place. Barring a complete disaster, Justin Thomas will win the tournament and Lucas Glover, who is playing extremely well this week, should finish inside the top five. Glover is losing close to two strokes on the greens, but has gained over four in ball-striking ranking him third behind only Tony Finau and Justin Thomas. Even though Glover’s had issues with his putting this week, he’s been able to turn it around on the final day throughout the year. Over his last three final rounds on bentgrass greens, he’s gained an average of 1.6 strokes with losing strokes putting in at least one round in those tournaments.
Round 3 Bets
Paul Casey Top-Five +1800Casey shot at least two rounds in the 70s in both his third-place finish at the WGC-Mexico Championship as well as his win at the Valspar Championship this season, which is what he finished with after the first two rounds. He’s been struggling with his putter over the season, but has gained strokes on the greens in eight of his past 10 tournaments and has only lost strokes approach in one tournament all season. His irons continue to be hot, ranking top 20 in approach and top 12 in ball-striking this week. Casey could’ve been using the first two rounds to dust off the proverbial rust with this week teeing it up for the first time in the playoffs, expect him to start climbing the leaderboard.
Round 2 Bets
Best Score – Round 2: Ian Poulter (+180) over Jordan Spieth (+150) and Rory Sabatini (+200)The Ryder Cup stud, who gained the most points of any golfer back in 2012, didn’t light up the leaderboard carding just four birdies on Thursday resulting in a pedestrian two-under-par finish. He should have a better day in the second round just by normalizing his putting; he lost close to three strokes on the greens today, something we haven’t seen in his first rounds since May. In fact, this was Poulter’s third-highest amount of strokes lost on the greens in his opening rounds all season, and only the second time it’s happened over the last six tournaments (with Shot Tracker data). Although Poulter ranked close to dead last in the field with his putter, he finished top-15 in SG: Ball Striking and third in SG: Approach hitting over 83% of his greens. Both Spieth and Sabatini ranked inside the top-four in SG: Putting today and in the bottom third in ball-striking.
Round 1 Bets
Jason Day to Win +5500He parted ways with caddie Stevie Williams after six tournaments and looks to improve on his ranking currently sitting outside the top-30 looking in at 50th in the FedEx Cup standings. Over his career, Day has had success on courses similar to Medinah like Quail Hollow, Bay Hill and Whistling Straits, winning at each within the past four years. More recently, over the last 24 rounds, he ranks 30th in SG: Tee-to-green and 11th in SG: Off-the-Tee and if we sharpen our focus on par-72 courses over 7,400 yards, he ranks fifth in SG: Approach and 14th in SG: Tee-to-Green.
Xander Schauffele to Win +4500It’s enticing to take Paul Casey at +4000, but he’s going to be more of a DraftKings play than an outright bet to win. Enter: The X-Man. Schauffele has been nothing short of impressive at impactful tournaments throughout the season with top-five finishes at The Masters, The U.S. Open, as well as a 16th at The PGA Championship. He’s also got two wins this season in difficult fields at the WGC-HSBC and The Sentry Tournament of Champions to accompany his solid major finishes. Schauffele’s recent form isn’t great, which is why we’re getting a number closer to his floor, but if we look over the last 24 rounds, on Par 72 courses over 7,400 yards he ranks 11th in SG: Off-the-Tee and 25th in SG: Tee-to-Green.
Cameron Champ First Round Leader +9000It’s been an interesting season for the rookie (whose last name destined him to a career in sports) with nine missed cuts since his win at Sanderson Farms early this season, but he could be in line for a solid start at Medinah. Champ will ride his recent success at last week’s Northern Trust into the first round at Medinah finishing with back-to-back rounds in the 60s while also improving on his putting gaining strokes in two of his four rounds. Champ’s putting still needs work, but he had a modicum of success without relying too much on his approach ranking 55th in opportunities gained at Liberty National. He’ll be going out in the morning before the course potentially firms and although Champ’s victory at Jackson Country Club earlier this season doesn’t have similar ambiance, prestige, or strength of field as Medinah, Champ still needed an all-around game from tee-to-Green to claim the top spot at a course over 7,400 yards with fast greens, similar to what we’ll see this week.
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