UFC on Fox 17 features a featherweight title fight between Rafael Dos Anjos and Donald Cerrone. Below are the studs and value plays for UFC on Fox 17 to help fill out your DraftKings lineups:
Best Plays on the Card
Junior Dos Santos ($10,900) vs. Alistair Overeem
If you’re looking for a fight likely to finish Saturday night, this is the one. Fourteen of Dos Santos’ 17 career wins have come by stoppage. Meanwhile, Overeem has won 35 of his 39 wins by either knockout or submission.
The big difference between the two fighters is defense. Dos Santos has only been stopped once in his career and that was by Cain Velasquez. Dos Santos lasted until the fifth round of a fight where he took an unbelievable amount of punishment.
Dos Santos took 123 significant strikes from Velasquez before finally being finished. There’s no denying Dos Santos’ chin. It’s one of the best in all of MMA.
Overeem has been knocked out nine times in his career and his last seven losses have all come by knockout. Overeem is just 3-3 in his last six fights with knockout losses to Ben Rothwell, Travis Browne and Antonio Silva.
Both fighters are aggressive strikers and with Dos Santos’ excellent takedown defense, this fight is likely to stay standing. Considering Dos Santos’ power and ability to take a punch, it sets up for him to win by stoppage.
CB Dollaway ($10,800) vs. Nate Marquardt
Marquardt is 1-4 since returning to the UFC. He’s lost three of those four fights by stoppage. Unless Marquardt gets lucky with a one-punch knockout Saturday night, this will likely be his last fight in the UFC.
Dollaway is on a two-fight losing streak himself but those losses have come against Lyoto Machida and Michael Bisping. Dollaway does a good job of beating the guys he should beat and Marquardt is a step down from his previous two opponents.
The stats from these two are pretty similar but the difference is the amount of punishment Marquardt has absorbed lately. Marquardt is eating 4.25 strikes per minutes over his last five fights. At 36-years-old, Marquardt is slowing down and when fighters get older they become an easier target to knock out.
Anything can happen in a fight but unless Dollaway gets caught, he will dominate Marquardt. Dollaway should win by stoppage.
Best Value Plays for the Price
Charles Oliveira ($9,400) vs. Myles Jury
This should be a good fight, so I like taking the value with Oliveira.
Oliveira had won four fights in a row before losing his last time out to Max Holloway. However, that fight had to be stopped prematurely because Oliveira suffered a neck injury. I liked Holloway to win that fight but it’s hard to count the loss against Oliveira because it was stopped so early.
Jury is also coming off a loss in his last fight to Donald Cerrone. It was the first loss in Jury’s career.
I see these two being even. Jury has been impressive but he was completely dominated by Cerrone. Jury is a well-rounded fighter who’s comfortable if the fight takes place standing or on the ground.
Likewise, Oliveira is a complete fighter. He has six wins by knockout but Oliveira is extremely dangerous on the ground with 12 submission victories on his resume.
This will be an interesting matchup between two Top 10 featherweights. Oliveira is a one of the top lower-salary options on the card. He’s worth a shot in your lineup at the price.