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Below, we will take a look at the top three notable betting insights from data taken from DraftKings Sportsbook ahead of tonight’s UFC card. For the full list of available bets on DraftKings Sportsbook, download the DK Sportsbook app or check out the DraftKings Sportsbook website.
Bettors Prefer Drew Dober, Bigger Bets Prefer Him Even MoreDrew Dober (-125) is a small favorite against Alexander Hernandez, and the split on number of bets is about what you’d expect, slightly leaning towards Dober at 53%. The money is much more aligned with Dober, however, with 72% of the handle coming down on his side. Dober finished each of his last two fights with first round knockouts, and the larger wagers from DraftKings Sportsbook bettors seem to indicate that they’re expecting more of the same.
Looking at the method of victory bets, the story is similar. The most popular wager by bet percentage is actually Hernandez with 42% of the bets, but those wagers only make up 23% of the handle. Dober to win by knockout accounts for 27% of the bets, and those bets make up 46% of the handle. It sets up a pretty clear trend, where Dober is the slightly preferred option overall but the bigger bets favor him to a significant extent.
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Surprising Amount of Money on Ricky Simon to Finish the FightThe betting data for Ricky Simon looks very similar to that of Drew Dober, as Simon (-165) has accounted for 59% of the bets and 73% of the handle. Unlike Dober and Hernandez, however, Simon will face Ray Borg in a fight that is heavily favored to go the distance. Simon is +110 to win by decision and Borg is +210 to win by decision, and those are by far the two shortest betting lines for the fight.
Looking further into the method of victory bets, there’s actually a sizable discrepancy in the breakdown of bets and handle, even though on the surface it looks like bettors are strongly siding with this fight going to the judges scorecards. Simon by knockout (+550) accounts for 10% of the bets and 31% of the handle, while Simon by decision makes up 54% of the bets but only 33% of the handle. Most DraftKings Sportsbook bettors are looking to Rocky Simon to win in a decision, but there’s a disproportionate amount of money pushing towards the KO finish.
Betting Trends indicate Glover Teixeira is Being OverlookedSome of the most popular fighters on Saturday’s card were from Colorado, the newest state to have legalized sports betting. That trend continues on Wednesday as Anthony Smith, born in Texas but fighting out of Denver, is by far the most wagered on fighter. Smith is a -182 favorite, and he’s taking in 81% of the bets and 87% of the handle to beat Glover Teixeira. Smith (31) is fighting the much more senior 40-year-old Teixeira, and bettors may simply view this as a significant advantage for Smith despite the fact that Teixeira has won three fights in a row. It also seems likely that just like at UFC 249, new Colorado sports bettors are driving up some favoritism for the hometown fighter.
The method of victory bets reveal a similar theme, with Smith winning by knockout being easily the most bet on outcome. At +110, those bets are taking in 46% of the bets and 52% of the handle, with no other options surpassing 22% in either category. One notable finding here is that Teixeira to win by decision (+600) isn’t all that unlikely in terms of betting odds compared to some of the other outcomes, but essentially no one thinks this will happen. Less than 1% of the bets and less than 1% of the handle are on Teixeira to beat Smith in a decision.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
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