UFC 195 features a welterweight title fight between Robbie Lawler and Carlos Condit. Below are the studs and value plays for UFC 195 to help fill out your DraftKings lineups:
Best Plays on the Card
Stipe Miocic ($10,500) vs. Andrei Arlovski
The winner of this fight could be in line for a heavyweight title shot. Arlovski has had a heck of a run in his second UFC stint but it’s going to end Saturday night.
Both fighters have incredible power but Miocic is known for his volume. In his last fight against Mark Hunt, Miocic landed 360 strikes. That set a record for a UFC heavyweight fight. Miocic has the fifth highest striking ratio in UFC heavyweight history.
Arlovski can still put anyone to sleep. He has nine knockouts in his UFC career. However, as we saw in his last fight with Frank Mir, Arlovski’s cardio simply isn’t at an elite level now that he’s almost 37-years-old. If Arlovski can’t end this fight early, Miocic’s pace will be too much for him.
Miocic is 4-1 in his last five fights. His only defeat over that span was a close decision loss to Junior Dos Santo in a fight that was a war. Miocic just has too much skill for an aging Arlovski. If he doesn’t eat a big punch early, Miocic will win this fight by TKO.
Albert Tumenov ($10,100) vs. Lorenz Larkin
This fight promises to be an exciting standup war. Larkin has been impressive since moving down to welterweight. Despite Larkin being the bigger fighter in this matchup, I see Tumenov winning by stoppage.
Tumenov has won four fights in a row. Three of those wins have come by first-round knockout. Tumenov has some of the most devastating power at 170 pounds. Standing with him is dangerous gameplan and unfortunately for Larkin, that’s what he’s likely to do Saturday night.
Larkin has a takedown rate of only 0.22, so he’s unlikely to test Tumenov’s ground game. Larkin likes to stand and strike as well and while that’s served him well throughout his career, it could put him at a disadvantage against Tumenov. Larkin is an accurate striker, so he’ll he have to try to use his bigger frame and keep Tumenov at a distance.
This is just a bad matchup for Larkin. Tumenov’s pressure and finishing ability will be the difference. Look for Tumenov to make a statement by getting a stoppage win over Larkin.
h2. Value Plays
Best Value Plays for the Price
Dustin Poirier ($8,800) vs. Joe Duffy
When I look at a value play I compare a fighter’s salary to his probability of winning. Poirier has one of the lowest salaries on the board but I see this being an even fight that I’m looking forward to watching.
Duffy is an impressive prospect who could certainly win this fight. Duffy has won both of his UFC fights easily by first-round stoppage. He has excellent striking and Duffy is just as comfortable going to the ground. Duffy is a complete fighter who can challenge anyone in the lightweight division.
Poirier shouldn’t be dismissed in this matchup though. Poirier has looked good since moving up from featherweight to lightweight; winning his last two fights by first-round knockout. Overall, Poirier has won five of his last six fights. His only loss over that span was to Conor McGregor.
Duffy is a -175 favorite in this fight. That’s about right. Duffy should be the favorite but for under a $9,000 price tag, Poirier isn’t a option if you’re looking for cheaper option to fill out your lineup card.