The AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am tees off Thursday morning, overlooking Carmel Bay, a backdrop that makes for some of the most breathtaking holes on the entire PGA tour. Rated the #1 course in America, this public course offers the right mix for a pro (or fantasy) tournament: challenging enough to make them sweat, with enough scoring opportunities to make it exciting. Good luck.
Jordan Spieth ($13,200) – This is how I’m going to look at it: he’s the most expensive play on the board this week. In truth, it’s third, but I have a hard time imagining how you are going to spend up for Day or Walker, both of whom amount to more than a THIRD of your total budget. And honestly, to get Spieth and then realize that there was someone more than $4,000 more expensive – never mind two someones – makes you feel like you’re getting a bargain. He missed the cut last weekend, but that followed up a T7 at the Phoenix Open and a win at the Hero World Challenge – both of which have followed up an exceptional first two years of his career. At the end of the year, that MC is going to stand out as an anomaly.
Brandt Snedeker ($10,100) – Snedeker meets the criteria we talked about in the breakdown – namely, playing well RIGHT NOW. The way this tournament plays, on the shorter side, with Pebble Beach and MPCC specifically playing as two of the very shortest courses on Tour, with lots of scoring chances, so you don’t need to be an expert in this particular course to go out there and have a great weekend. And Snedeker’s got three top-20 finishes in his last four tournaments (including two top-10’s), and he hasn’t played a single round over par in either of his last two. And as luck would have it, he’s won here before too (2013) – the double whammy.
Chris Kirk ($9,400) – Kirk hasn’t cracked the top-20 since the Hyundai Tournament of Champions right after New Year’s, but he hasn’t missed a cut either. His game is not far off, and it wouldn’t take a lot to get him back in the form that had him pushing for top-10’s routinely earlier in 2014. He is a player that can card a lot of birdies when his game is right, which could mean that he is a very useful fantasy option if he finishes anywhere in the top-25 – like someone like Sergio Garcia, he’s a guy who would outscore players who finish ahead of him on the leaderboard.
Nick Watney ($9,300) – He finished T7 at Torrey Pines last weekend, despite going 72-73 over the weekend. He did is basically on the back of a 65 on Friday, when he was faced with the easier course of the weekend. An opportunity for strokes was placed in front of him, and he capitalized. You really can’t ask for a lot more.
Shane Lowry ($8,300) – He’s never competed here before, but he had never competed at the Farmers before either, and he finished seven under. But he has been on fire everywhere other than the U.S lately – so far, for the 2015 European Tour season, he has made the top-25 in six of seven (five of those inside the top 11).
Jason Kokrak ($8,200) – Top-20 in both of his last two performances here at Pebble Beach, and he is playing great golf. He makes shots, he just hasn’t strung them all together in a row just yet. But as an example of the kind of success he can have when it’s there in front of him, he is averaging 75 fantasy points over his last two tournaments, despite finishes of T40 and T48. He makes shots. Which helps your fantasy team no matter where he finishes on the leaderboard (just root for him to make the cut!).
Spencer Levin ($7,500) – He’s finished in the top 15 three times in fives tries in this tournament for his career. Who knows, maybe he likes playing with the celebrities, tuning out the distraction more than others. Maybe he just likes the course. But he finished T11 last weekend, and with his history here, he definitely qualifies as someone with the potential for real value at his price.
Rory Sabbatini ($7,300) – Top 25 in each of his last three tournaments, with only one round over par during that entire stretch. But honestly, never mind rounds over par – he’s only had 18 bogeys in that entire stretch.