WATCH: CHASE OR FADE – DUSTIN JOHNSON
There is a lot of data to digest when researching for golf. Course characteristics can tell us whether we want to favor long hitters, great putters or the best scramblers. Weather is crucial as strong wind early on Thursday would mean we want players teeing off later in the day. Figuring out exactly how good a golfer is relative to his DraftKings’ salary and the field sounds simple but is crucial.
The two topics I normally focus on in this weekly article are course history and recent form. However, this year’s PGA Championship is being held at Quail Hollow – normally the site of the Wells Fargo Championship. So instead of playing the same course twice in one year, the Wells Fargo is being held at Eagle Point Golf Club in Wilmington, North Carolina. We have no course history to work from, so this week I’ll just be looking at recent form.
COMING IN HOT: RECENT FORM
1. Kevin Kisner, $8,400
Kisner is in the midst of by far the best season of his career. He’s made seven straight cuts and has seven top-25 finishes in his last nine events overall. That includes a 2nd at the Arnold Palmer in mid-March, an 11th at the Heritage in mid-April and a 2nd in last week’s best ball event. Kisner is one of the week’s most mispriced golfers relative to his implied odds to win.
2. Kevin Tway, $7,200
Kevin Tway, the son of top golfer Bob Tway, is starting to come into his own at age 28. He finished 32nd in Puerto Rico, 3rd in Texas and then paired with Kelly Kraft to finish 3rd at last week’s best ball event. Tway’s Recent Adjusted Round Score of 68.5 is sixth-best in this field.
3. Paul Casey, $9,900
Casey doesn’t have a top-5 on the season, but he’s been knocking on the door for a while now. He’s made seven straight cuts, a run which included 6th at The Masters and 11th at Honda. It’s even more impressive considering the elite fields he’s faced each week. Casey has the second-best Adjusted Greens In Regulation percentage in this field over the last six weeks (via FantasyLabs). Only Adam Scott has been better.
COMING IN COLD: RECENT FORM
1. Rafael Cabrera-Bello, $8,700
Cabrera-Bello has only played three events on American soil this year. He missed the cut at The Masters, missed the cut at the Houston Open and finished 37th at the Honda. It’s a bit of an odd cold stretch for the 32-year-old Spaniard, especially after making nine cuts and booking three top-10s in just 10 PGA Tour events last season.
2. Patrick Reed, $9,800
Reed is in a season-long funk. He’s missed the cut in each of his last three events and hasn’t finished better than 38th in any of his last seven. Even though a turnaround is eventually likely, Reed remains priced in the elite range at $9,800. Paul Casey and Adam Scott are just $100 and $200 more, respectively.
3. Harris English, $7,400
English looked like a rising star last year when he made 22-of-26 cuts and was inside the top-10 three times. But this year has been a disaster for the 27-year-old as he’s already been cut a whopping six times in 14 events. And when he has made the cut, three of his finishes were 61st (Houston), 60th (Honda) and 57th (Phoenix). Only Steven Bowditch has worse Adjusted Driving Accuracy over the last six weeks in this field.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is AdamLevitan) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.