WATCH: COURSE PREVIEW – TPC POTOMAC
There is a lot of data to digest when researching for golf. Course characteristics can tell us whether we want to favor long hitters, great putters or the best scramblers. Weather is crucial as strong wind early on Thursday would mean we want players teeing off later in the day. Figuring out exactly how good a golfer is relative to his DraftKings salary and the field sounds simple but is crucial.
The topic I’ll be focusing on this week is recent form. Like every other stat in every DraftKings sport, this is just one piece of the puzzle rather than the whole pie. But knowing who comes into the event in good form does correlate with success on DraftKings.
*The TPC Potomac hasn’t hosted a PGA Tour event since 2006, so we have no significant course history data.
COMING IN HOT: RECENT FORM
1. David Lingmerth, $8,500
As noted in this space last week, Lingmerth has found the form that made the 29-year-old Swede one of the game’s most interesting prospects in 2015-16. He’s smashed salary-based expectation in four straight events, a run which includes a 12th at DEAN & DELUCA and a 21st at the U.S. Open. Lingmerth did play this course while on the Web.com Tour in 2012 and booked an outright win by shooting eight under par.
2. Bill Haas, $9,500
Haas has been under $7,000 in each of his last three starts, so spending $9,500 on him feels exorbitant regardless of the soft field. Still, we can’t deny that Haas is one of the hottest players in this field. He finished 5th at the U.S. Open, 25th at Memorial and 12th at DEAN & DELUCA. Haas still doesn’t have a top two finish this year, something he’s done at least once in each of the last seven seasons.
3. Kevin Streelman, $7,400
Streelman has the third-best Recent Adjusted Round Score in this entire field (via Fantasy Labs). That’s thanks to an 8th last week at Travelers, 13th at Memorial and 18th at DEAN & DELUCA. Streelman is also $400 cheaper than he was last week even though the field here at TPC Potomac is far weaker.
4. Danny Lee, $8,200
It’s been an up-and-down year for the 26-year-old Lee, who is still trying to find the form which left him 10th in the 2015 FedEx Cup standings. It’s been a strong run lately though, as Lee has made five straight cuts and booked three top-6s during that span. Much like Bud Cauley, Kyle Stanley and Si Woo Kim, Lee’s odds to win are better than his DraftKings salary.
COMING IN COLD: RECENT FORM
1. Byeong-Hun An, $8,600
An was among the higher-owned golfers on DraftKings in his last three appearances thanks in large part to his salary. He was oddly $7,100 or less at the Travelers, the U.S. Open and the Memorial. However, he scuffled to 66th, missed cut and 25th in those events – but now his price has spiked to $8,600. An will likely come with low ownership but also a low floor.
2. Hudson Swafford, $7,300
Swafford won the CareerBuilder Challenge way back in late-January. It’s mostly been a nightmare since then and things have really come to a head lately. Swafford has missed the cut in four of his last five events and finished 66th when he did get to the weekend.
3. Harris English, $8,000
English is in the midst of his worst season as a pro, missing 10 cuts in just 21 events played and booking zero top-9s on the year. Yet somehow, he’s still priced in the mid-range on DraftKings. Even in this extremely weak field, English is a high-risk play as he hasn’t shown very many signs of turning things around – he shot a 75 on Friday at the Travelers to miss the cut, staying ice cold.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is AdamLevitan) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.