The PGA tour exits Texas and heads to New Orleans this week on one of the easiest courses of the season, TPC Louisiana. While the course may not be difficult, you’ll have to choose players carefully if you hope to win this week on Draftkings. Below is a list of golfers I love, like, and hate for help when building your lineups!
Golfers I Love
Jason Day ($12,500) – Jason Day is far and away the best golfer in the field here, and, as such, I will own a significant portion of him in my lineups. While Jason Day is definitely no secret on tour at this point in his career, many tend to forget that he is a phenomenal scorer on par 3s and has it in his game to shoot -22 in four rounds which will play in Day’s favor in a big way this week.
Justin Rose ($11,800) – Justin Rose is a phenomenal consideration as a player who has world class form coming into this event along with 3 top 10s in 4 years at this event historically. He happens to be the defending champion at this event, and his high projection in my statistical model has me loading up my lineups with plenty of Justin Rose.
Smylie Kaufman ($9,500) – Smylie Kaufman has one of the highest projections in the field in my statistical model largely due to his ability to play from the sand. He also happens to be 3rd in Total Birdies through 2016 which should translate to DraftKings points in a big way.
Luke List ($7,400) – Luke List has one of the prettiest swings on Tour and really seems to have turned a corner recently with 6 cuts made in his last 7 appearances on Tour. He doesn’t have much course history to speak of, but at $7,400 we are getting a really hot golfer at a great discount.
Hudson Swafford ($6,700) – This course is not one that tends to favor golfers who are long off the tee, and Swafford is well known as a “bomber.” However, Swafford happens to be ranked 22nd in proximity from the fairway and was ranked 26th in Strokes Gained: Putting through 2015 which means Swafford is definitely not a one-trick pony. There is some risk associated with Swafford, but I’ll be rostering him in my GPP lineups.
Golfers I Like
Rickie Fowler ($11,100) – Rickie Fowler’s name speaks for itself in many ways; however, it’s his 5 top 10s in his last 8 starts that puts him in the same conversation as the best players in the world. Statistically, Rickie’s game should fit this course fairly well; however, it’s his back-to-back missed cuts on the course that has me second guessing him a bit.
Billy Horschel ($10,300) – Billy Horschel was in my article last week and is going to be in my lineups again after his 4th place finish in Texas. This course sets up well for him again, and he has made 10 straight cuts which makes him a great cash game consideration as well.
Russell Henley ($8,100) – I don’t have much to say about Russell Henley other than his stats speak to him doing very well at this course. I’ll be rostering him with some hesitation because of his lack of course history and very rocky recent form. That being said, there have been numerous cases of first time players performing very well at this event.
Hunter Mahan ($7,000) – Hunter Mahan has the type of game that could do very well on TPC Louisiana which will reward his putting ability. Hunter Mahan is typically fairly volatile, so I won’t be loading up on him in cash, but his upside provides some interesting possibilities when building lineups in a fairly weak field.
Scott Pinckney ($6,400) – In his first and only appearance at this event, Pinckney finished 12th, and I expect him to follow up this performance with another high finish. His recent form with back-to-back missed cuts gives me pause, but I think if there was a week for him to bounce back it would be at this course.
Golfers I Hate
Charley Hoffman ($10,500) – Charley Hoffman is coming off a win, and this will be his 6th straight week of golf. While I project Hoffman to do well here, this feels like a letdown spot if he is even slightly fatigued, and I expect him to be very highly owned with all of his recent success.
Chris Kirk ($9,800) – I won’t be falling into the Chris Kirk trap this week because his price is far too high, and his game does not suit this course well. Being ranked 157th in Strokes Gained: Putting along with his very poor projection in my model scares me enough to completely fade him.
Byeong-Hun An ($8,300) – While I will definitely be rostering Byeong-Hun An in future events this year, I will be fading Beyong-Hun An this week. He was quoted the week before the Masters saying he hadn’t swung a club in over a week due to an injury. His last 2 events have included a WD and a missed cut, and until I see something out of An, I won’t be rostering him for fear of withdrawal.
Anirban Lahiri ($7,700) – Lahiri is a bomber off the tee through and through, and, as such, I don’t expect him to do well on a course that requires putting, and course management skills. While I will definitely look to roster Lahiri as we get into some courses that suit his game better, I am not interested in Lahiri at a Pete Dye course like TPC Louisiana.
Seung-Yul Noh ($7,300) – Many will fall into the trap of rostering Seung-Yul Noh after realizing that he has won this event in the past. However, he projects poorly for me, and he has also had a WD, missed cut, and 66th place finish in other appearances here which scares me enough to avoid rostering Noh.
Do you have questions about golfers who aren’t in this article? Get more weekly analysis and answers to any of your questions by following me on Twitter @BradMessersmith