The umbrellas have finally been put away after a rainy and wet week of golf. The PGA Tour heads over to Quail Hollow Club for the Wells Fargo Championship in North Carolina. Below is a list of golfers I love, like, and hate for help when building your lineups this week on DraftKings.
Golfers I Love
Rory McIlroy ($12,800) – It’s hard to imagine a scenario in which a $12,800 golfer could be a value play, but based on the Vegas odds Rory McIlroy is underpriced. At the Northern Trust Open Rory and Spieth were both over $13k and their odds were no better than 7:1. In this case Rory’s odds are 5:1 and I have him projected nearly 30 points higher than the second highest projected golfer in my model. I will be owning a lot of shares of Rory and I’ll be hoping his high price tag will keep his ownership percentages down.
Justin Rose ($10,000) – Justin Rose is in a unique spot because he makes a great cash game option but also could be a sneaky GPP play as well. His game suits Quail Hollow well and coming off a missed cut last week where he was +30% owned I expect his ownership to be very low. Rose being priced at only $10,000 is a steal for the number 10 ranked golfer in the world.
Phil Mickelson ($9,500) – Phil Mickelson has an immaculate course history at Quail Hollow, with 7 top 10 finishes without ever missing a cut. Phil’s current form isn’t as sharp as he is coming off back-to-back missed cuts, although Phil hasn’t missed 3 straight cuts since 2007. Based on Phil’s historical strength at Quail Hollow, I expect him to be in contention on Sunday.
Jim Furyk ($8,000) – Jim Furyk hasn’t played since September, and he will make his return this week in what will likely be a warmup event for the The Players Championship next week. While he isn’t a young man at age 45, I think this week presents a unique opportunity to get what was the 3rd ranked golfer in the world in 2015 at an extremely discounted price and what should be incredibly low ownership. If Furyk does come off his injury feeling 100%, we can expect him to perform above expectation which makes him a great GPP play.
Morgan Hoffman ($6,600) – Hoffman has nothing to speak of in terms of good recent form or course history at this event, however he plays well in his approach game from outside 200+ yards and has good distance efficiency numbers. Both of these stats will set him up for success on a 7,500+ yard course like Quail Hollow.
Golfers I like
Rickie Fowler ($10,900) – In all of 2015, Fowler was ranked first in approaches from 225-250 yards which makes me really interested in rostering Rickie Fowler. Unfortunately his price is a bit high for my liking but as one of the world’s most elite golfers, only Rory McIlroy’s stats fit this course better.
Hideki Matsuyama ($9,300) – Hideki Matsuyama is a steal at only $9,300 and is one of the least expensive golfers with really serious winning potential.
Kevin Kisner ($8,100) – Kevin Kisner has been in the top 5 in both all-around ranking and birdie or better percentage for the last 16 weeks on tour and statistically he stands out nearly every week. Since Kisner is a streaky golfer, I’ll be looking to try and get on him before he gets hot and this feels like a good potential week for Kisner to catch fire.
Jason Bohn ($7,100) – Interestingly enough, Jason Bohn stands out in my statistical projections in a big way. While Bohn’s course history is speckled with missed cuts, he also has 3 top 10 finishes at this event and while I wouldn’t recommend him in cash I think he makes for an interesting GPP play with good upside.
Vijay Singh ($5,300) – Vijay Singh at the minimum salary has me really scratching my head. Through 2015 Vijay Singh was ranked 25th in strokes gained tee to green and while he hasn’t had a great year through 2016, he certainly doesn’t strike me as the caliber of golfer who belongs at the bottom of the salary list.
Golfers I Hate
Adam Scott ($10,600) – Adam Scott is obviously an elite talent, however Scott’s game does not suit this course very well. While Adam Scott’s tee to green game is clearly world class, it’s his approaches from distances outside of 200 yards that he has struggled with consistently. I expect Adam Scott to be very popular this week which is fine in my book as I will not be rostering him at all.
Patrick Reed ($9,700) – Coming off of a recent 2nd place finish at the Valero Texas Open, I expect Patrick Reed to be more popular than I am comfortable with. He has decent course history here but projects as one of the lowest golfers in the $9k+ range for me and I don’t see Patrick Reed having winning potential in a field as strong as this one.
Daniel Berger ($8,400) – Berger is in the midst of a very strong stretch of golf that has led to increased salary based on his performance. However on this track, Berger is going to find himself playing out of the rough often at Quail Hollow, a course which boasts one of the highest missed fairway percentages on tour. Berger’s proximity from the rough however is not one of the strong suits in his game, so I would suggest looking elsewhere this week.
Graham DeLaet ($7,400) – Quail Hollow is not exactly the type of course you would expect first timers to have big showings at this event. At this long and difficult course, I would expect Graham DeLaet to find himself catching the learning curve, limiting his upside in a big way.
Hunter Mahan ($6,500) – Hunter Mahan made the like section of my article last week which turned out to be a big mistake. When looking back and reviewing my process for selecting Mahan it came to my attention that it has been a very long time since we have seen any significant results from Hunter Mahan. Moving forward, I will likely be staying away from Mahan regardless of what the stats say unless we see something change because of his poor form.
Do you have questions about golfers who aren’t in this article? Get more weekly analysis and answers to any of your questions by following me on Twitter @BradMessersmith