The PGA tour moves on to the next stop and is out of the Florida swing to the Puerto Rico Open in Rio Grande. Many of the top players in the world rankings will be competing in the WGC– Dell Match Play event, so it will be even more important to make sure you are choosing carefully when building your lineups this week. Below is a list of golfers I love, like, and hate this week at this event!
Golfers I Love
William McGirt ($10,500) – William McGirt’s price on the outside looks incredibly high, but keep in mind with less talent in the field it’s a relative change. As a golfer who has had a really up and down season, I like his chances to win in this weak field, and he shouldn’t be particularly high owned.
Tony Finau ($9,200) – Tony Finau made a cut last week after missing several in a row, and as a result, I expect his ownership to be inflated this week, even more so than it was last week. That being said, he doesn’t have a history at this event, but he projects very well for me. Finau is one of the more talented golfers in the field and should have a shot to win this event.
“…he doesn’t have a history at this event, but he projects very well for me”
Jon Curran ($8,400) – Jon Curran is by no means a “safe” golfer but has shown some upside this year including 4 top 30s and a 4th place finish. In a weak field, Curran should be able to perform well here as one of my top projected golfers overall this week.
Aaron Baddeley ($7,600) – As another golfer with no history at this event and a generally unpopular option, I expect Aaron Baddeley to have very low ownership this week. That being said, in events in which Baddeley makes the cut, he hasn’t finished outside the top 50 and has 2 top 10s this season. He should present some serious upside on a course that is very playable for first time competitors.
Bronson Burgoon ($6,200) – Bronson Burgoon is one of the most skilled golfers in this price range hands down, and he has 4 top 25 finishes in the 12 events he’s played this season. He is not necessarily a household name but should present a great option in GPPs.
Golfers I Like
George McNeil ($10,100) – McNeil is one of the few golfers who has a consistent history here; although, I won’t be making my decisions based too heavily on course history for this event, I do like the fact that my projections are confirmed by his history here. His recent form does not reflect his skill as a golfer, and, as such, he should be criminally under owned.
Alex Cejka ($9,500) – As the defending champion Alex Cejka projects fairly well for me and is by far my highest projection in his price range. However, his tournament history and having made his last 2 cuts has me concerned about ownership. It’s unlikely he wins this event back-to-back, but I like him as a golfer who should have some upside.
Sam Saunders ($7,900) – Sam Saunders has played this event once, and has a 2nd place finish, and I like him as a lower priced golfer who has a chance to win this week. While his projection is not off the charts, his game should set up well for this course.
Rory Sabbatini ($6,600) – Rory Sabbatini is a highly volatile golfer, but that condition is going to be hard to avoid in a field of weaker golfers this week. Rory Sabbatini is, however, one of the more veteran golfers in this field, and as a result, if he does make the cut this week, I expect him to easily meet value.
Miguel Angel Carballo ($4,800) – Talk about extreme value! Miguel Angel Carballo comes in under $5k, which is extremely rare in general. While I won’t be going overboard with Carballo by any means, he is coming off a phenomenal season on the Web.com tour in 2015, and at some point I expect him to hit his stride in the big leagues. As a low priced golfer, he is worth a flier.
Golfers I Hate
Freddie Jacobson ($10,400) – Freddie Jacobson easily could win this tournament, so my hate is not far reaching, but I project him poorly in my model, and, as such, I won’t have too much of him. My strategy is going to include some ownership of each of the highest salary players this week, so I will definitely own him to some extent.
Retief Goosen ($9,700) – Despite being a household name, he does not belong at $9,700, even in a weak field. In his long and storied career, he has never played this event, most likely as a result of having been good enough to qualify for other events without a need to play here. I don’t expect Goosen to be able to put together 4 rounds that are good enough to compete here.
“I don’t expect Goosen to be able to put together 4 rounds that are good enough to compete here”
Hiroshi Iwata ($8,100) – Iwata has had some seriously close calls to being a winner on tour this year; however, this price concerns me a bit for the type of golfer he is. He seems far more likely to miss the cut than to meet value at $8,100 this week, and, as such, I will be passing by his name when making lineups.
Will MacKenzie ($7,400) – Despite his solid tournament history at this event, Will MacKenzie projects as one of the lowest golfers in my model this week. His upside will concern me a bit since he won’t be in any of my lineups, but I can’t advocate using him in GPPs as a golfer who isn’t likely to win the tournament at the same price as several players who can win here.
Tom Hoge ($6,000) – There doesn’t seem to be much value for Hoge here in my book, coming in at the worst golfer in my projections. He has one appearance at this event and missed the cut, and I don’t expect that trend to end in any drastic fashion this week.
Do you have questions about golfers who didn’t make my list? Get more weekly analysis and answers to your questions by following me on twitter @BradMessersmith