The Honda Classic brings out some of the best talent on the PGA Tour. With a ton of stars set to play this weekend, we’ll need to decipher which guys we should be considering for our lineups. Below you’ll find a list of golfers that I love, like, and hate as targets heading into this weekend’s tournament. Let’s get right into it!
Golfers I Love
Rickie Fowler ($11,700) – Fowler is coming off one of the best streaks of good play in his career having placed in the top 5 in 4 of his last 5 events, making him the hottest golfer on tour right now. With his last event having resulted in a tough loss in a playoff to Matsuyama, I expect Rickie to come out firing this week.
Adam Scott ($11,000) – Adam Scott is far and away my favorite play this week short of the fact that his ownership is going to be inflated because of his 2nd place finish last week. He is my highest projected golfer and hasn’t placed outside the top 10 in any of his last four events dating back 14 weeks so I am going to be putting Scott in a high percentage of my lineups in GPPs.
Sergio Garcia ($9,300) – Sergio left many of us with a sour taste in our mouths after missing the cut in miserable fashion last week, which is exactly why I am going to be back on Sergio in a huge way. Prior to last week’s meltdown, Sergio had made over 20 cuts in a row and I expect him to bounce back well, and at $9,300 he is severely underpriced and has a shot to win. I will almost definitely be starting my cash lineup with Sergio this week.
Jamie Donaldson ($7,200) – Surprisingly enough Jamie Donaldson jumps off the page in my projections, largely in part due to his putting abilities. Donaldson ranked 10th last year in Total Putting which is a metric that weights several different putting distances to evaluate a player’s overall putting ability. Donaldson only strengthens my argument by backing his projection up with 3 straight cuts made at this event and a 5th place finish last year.
Camilo Villegas ($6,700) – I won’t be going all in this week on Villegas by any means, but I think he presents some definite GPP value as someone who has a volatile history at this event. As my highest projected player under the $7k salary range, I will have some exposure knowing the casual fan will have forgotten that Villegas won this event in 2010.
Golfers I Like
Brooks Koepka ($10,500) – Brooks Koepka is rapidly becoming a PGA fantasy favorite as a golfer who has an undeniably wide range of skills, all of which should suit him well on PGA National Champion course. Koepka should have a home field advantage here being from the area, and at under $11k he is someone who has the ability to win here.
Paul Casey ($9,500) – Casey, who I have projected well this week, in large part because of his abilities from the rough should do well on a course where playing from the rough is key. Casey was near the top of the list last year in rough proximity and is 2nd in that stat through 2016, on top of which he hasn’t finished lower than 12th in his last two times out at this event.
PGA Price Check
Jason Dufner ($8,000) – Jason Dufner presents some incredible value at his clearance price of only $8,000 having not missed a cut here since 2007. As a result he will be justifiably high owned in cash games this week. I will have some exposure to him in GPPs as well, but given his history his ownership percentage leaves me a bit concerned with rostering too much of him in large tournament formats.
Robert Streb ($7,400) – Streb is not necessarily someone who stands out in any particular category this week, but hasn’t missed a cut at this event in his two appearances. Being in the top 50 world golf rankings has me carefully eyeing Streb at $7,400, and being priced next to Charles Howell III should leave him largely overlooked.
Brian Harman ($6,900) – Many people won’t realize this, but Brian Harman is one of the best putters on tour through 2016 from distances inside 15 feet. For a guy who is under $7k salary he presents a serious opportunity to gain strokes on the field with his putting and if he can hit a few approaches close, he should score well for fantasy purposes.
Golfers I Hate
Phil Mickelson ($10,800) – Mickelson, despite looking refreshed in the beginning of the 2016 season, is someone who will consistently be over owned by the general public. With all the coverage and news of his performance it’s easy to forget that he hasn’t won on tour since 2013 and at this price you are going to be overlooking golfers who have a much better shot at getting a win.
Russell Knox ($9,700) – Despite having finished 2nd and 3rd at his last two outings at this event, Knox is no bargain at a $9,700 price tag. While I won’t be fading him entirely, Knox is easily my lowest projected player in his price range and as such I will be bypassing him frequently when building my lineups this week.
David Lingmerth ($8,200) – Lingmerth is definitely overpriced at $8,200 most likely because of a solid string of events he put together 5 weeks ago. Since then Lingmerth has missed two cuts in a row though and hasn’t looked good in that stretch. I’m not willing to pay the $8,200 to find out if he’s found his game again or if his missed cut streak will continue.
Jason Kokrak ($7,800) – By now you should be sensing the theme this week in the hate section, but Kokrak’s price is also higher than it should be after his T2 finish at the Northern Trust Open last week. Don’t get fooled by a single result from Kokrak, I’d rather not end up suffering the pains of his $800 price bump when he falls back in performance.
Charles Howell III ($7,500) – This is really going to surprise some people this week, but this feels like a letdown spot for CH3, despite how well he looks on paper with 7 cuts in a row made at this event and 10 cuts in a row since last year I don’t have him projected well at all. I may have Howell in some of my cash games because of his history here, but he is going to be very highly owned this week in GPPs and if he does miss the cut I am going to look to capitalize on that.
Do you have a golfer you aren’t sure about or want more analysis? Catch me on twitter @bradmessersmith.