The first leg of the FedEx Cup has come and gone with a Patrick Reed win, and we are down to only 100 golfers this week as the PGA Tour heads to TPC Boston for the Deutsche Bank Championship. The field of players will be cut down to only 70 players before the third leg of the FedEx Cup next week which means you’ll have to choose golfers carefully when building lineups. Below is a list of golfers I love, like, and hate for help when building lineups this week.
Golfers I Love
Jason Day ($12,500) – What’s not to love about Jason Day who has proven himself time and time again as a golfer who consistently shows up in events with tough fields and a lot on the line. No matter the course fit, Day comes out and continues to prove he is the top golfer in the world. Now that he has been overtaken in the FedEx Cup rankings by Patrick Reed, I expect him to come out on fire this week.
Adam Scott ($10,400) – You may not recall because it’s been a while, but Adam Scott is a two-time winner on Tour this season, and statistically he is top notch. Approaches form 200-225, Strokes Gained: Approach the Green, and Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green are all stat categories in which Adam Scott ranks number one in on Tour. Don’t overthink Adam Scott in this spot because he can definitely show up with a win.
Jim Furyk ($8,800) – I’m a bit concerned with Jim Furyk’s upside in GPP formats, but this tournament has been very kind to Jim Furyk historically. In his last seven tries, Furyk has never finished worse than thirty-seventh and has top fifteen finishes in four of those same results. With three top ten finishes, I think Furyk should have enough upside at this price and will likely find his way into both my cash game lineups and GPP lineups.
Justin Thomas ($7,600) – Thomas makes another interesting statistical play, and he meets a lot of the criteria I look for in a mid-priced golfer. Recently, he has been good with a top ten and third place finish in the last three events. His twentieth rank in Par 5 Scoring and fourteenth rank in Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green should set Justin Thomas up to follow up his string of good golf in a big way this week.
Webb Simpson ($6,100) – Webb Simpson continues to be under-priced in a tough field, but for some of the same reasons as last week, I think Webb Simpson makes sense again this week. He didn’t necessarily crush it last week, but he hasn’t missed a cut in five events over the course of eight weeks, and at $6,100 the combination of consistency and upside is fairly unique in Webb Simpson.
Golfers I Like
Dustin Johnson ($12,100) – Don’t sleep on Dustin Johnson after eighteenth place finish at the Barclays last week. While at his price, anything but winning is not a great result when it comes to your fantasy lineups, but Dustin Johnson can win any day of the week (particularly Sunday I suppose), and I’m hoping DJ’s ownership will have dropped a bit after most were left disappointed last week.
Patrick Reed ($10,200) – I suppose you probably could have seen this coming if you were paying attention last week, but Patrick Reed would not be the first golfer to win back-to-back this year. Reed hasn’t finished outside the top twenty five in over eight weeks, and six of his seven events in those eight weeks he finished inside the top fifteen. I think Patrick Reed should be much more expensive based on his recent results, and I’m a bit concerned that his ownership percentage will be very high.
Hideki Matsuyama ($8,600) – This week is the perfect opportunity to get on Hideki Matsuyama following his missed cut at the Barclays last week. We’ve seen Matsuyama finish top five in two straight events prior to the missed cut, and his upside has not changed. I think people are going to avoid Matsuyama because of his result last week, and we can nab him at low ownership in a great spot.
Jhonattan Vegas ($7,400) – Vegas has been one of the hottest golfers on Tour as of late, and he certainly makes a case as the hottest golfer in this price range. We’ve seen on several occasions golfers get hot late in the season and make good sleeper runs at the FedEx Cup, and I think Vegas could be that guy this year.
Jason Dufner ($7,800) – I’m not sure Dufner has a good shot to win in this type of field. That being said, Dufner has a phenomenal cut-making ability, and certainly has the ability to grind his way into the top twenty-five, which he’s done in three of his past four events. At under $8,000, you’ll need to decide whether you think a top twenty-five finish is enough for Jason Dufner to make his way into your lineups, but he’ll almost certainly find his way into mine.
Golfers I Hate
Jordan Spieth ($11,600) – You’ve heard me mention Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green several times when it comes to TPC Boston, and if Jordan Spieth had a weakness, it would be his approach game. History tells the same story, with only one top five at this event historically for Jordan Spieth, it’s enough for me to avoid having him in too many of my lineups.
Justin Rose ($9,700) – I try not to make decisions based solely on course history, but Justin Rose has a history here that certainly scares me. Since 2009, Justin Rose’s best finish was a sixteenth place finish, and he has three missed cuts in that same stretch. There’s enough of a sample size here of poor finishes for me to be very concerned about taking on too much exposure to Justin Rose.
Jimmy Walker ($7,000) – Since Jimmy Walker won his first major at the PGA Championship, he has missed back-to-back cuts. Statistically, he should fit this course, but his three missed cuts in six tries at this event paint a very different picture, so I’ll be treading carefully with Jimmy.
J.B. Holmes ($6,500) – I’m a bit torn on J.B. Holmes because he certainly feels like a great value at under $7k, but with four missed cuts in his last six events, Holmes has certainly not been playing his A-game. This week should be no different, when you consider the fact that this course does not exactly play to J.B. Holmes’ strengths as a golfer.
Do you have questions about golfers who aren’t in this article? Get more weekly analysis and answers to any of your questions by following me on Twitter @BradMessersmith
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is IthinkIcan1) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.