Golfers I Love
Bubba Watson ($10,400) – This week is going to be Bubba week for me, after coming off an MDF at AT&T last week, his ownership should be deflated even more than the 12% or so he was last week and his price is down $500 as well. As a guy who birdies nearly 60% of par 5s and has shown the ability to win Bubba is going to be in a large percentage of my lineups, especially with his reduced price tag.
Sergio Garcia ($10,100) – As someone who is ranked number one in putts made per event over 20’ in 2015 which I equate to hitting a home run in MLB. DFS scoring comes from putting in the PGA and Sergio is a golfer that has shown the long term ability to deliver in a big way. With Sergio having been off of the PGA tour for a while he should be out of a lot of people’s rosters this week, but he has been playing well internationally and should be a good option this week.
J.B. Holmes ($9,800) – Holmes is ranked 3rd overall in my projections this week, largely because of his ability to make birdies from the rough which typically is a key factor at Riviera Country Club. Being one of the most difficult courses on tour, Holmes’ ability to make birdies from the rough are going to play a big role in his performance this week.
K.J. Choi ($7,100) – At this price how could you not consider K.J. Choi who has made the cut in all of his last 12 times playing this event? No, that wasn’t a typo, Choi is 12 for 12 dating back to 2004, which was the same year destiny’s child released their last album. If course horse is a thing that exists, then K.J. Choi is a course unicorn at Riviera.
Daniel Summerhays ($6,500) – Summerhays is coming off his first missed cut this season at pebble beach and present fantastic value at his price. He projects well on this course and should have a really good chance at making the cut, with a low price tag and low ownership due to his missed cut last week. I am going to be having summerhays in all of my cash game lineups this week.
Golfers I like
Dustin Johnson ($11,300) – is a phenomenal golfer who disappointed a lot of people last week with a mere T41 finish after just sneaking past the cut. I am hoping that people overlook the fact that he has finished 2nd here two years in a row and that I can snag him at a decently low ownership, but it’s likely he will still be owned at a decent clip. Either way I am going to be looking to own a lot of DJ this week.
Paul Casey ($8,900) – Casey is the guy in the sub $9,000 salary range that has the best chance of winning this week despite a really tough field. Casey lands near the top of the list in proximity from rough in 2015 and that is enough for me to want to have some exposure.
Justin Thomas ($8,500) – The only thing standing between Justin Thomas and the list of golfers I love is his recent form. As a player with solid stats and incredible talent I won’t be fading him entirely but I am hesitant to go all in on someone who has missed two straight cuts. His talent and stats upside is going to be enough for me to get him in some lineups this week.
Tony Finau ($7,400) – Finau has disappointed on a regular basis this year after some seriously high ownership in the first part of the season. His stats project well for this course and I’m going to continue to go back to the Finau well knowing that at some point he will make some puts and finish near the top of the leaderboard.
Stewart Cink ($6,700) – Cink managed to wind up seventh overall in my rankings and at this price tag I think he is definitely worth some exposure having come off a top 25 last week and a long history of cut making at this event. Despite being a bit on the aged side, he has had a decent season thus far and it’s still early in the season.
Golfers I hate
Jordan Spieth ($13,200) – I know I wasn’t the only person to look at Spieth’s price tag and wonder what happened. He barely made the cut last week and was 30% owned which has led to a price increase of $900. At this price tag Jordan Spieth has to win for you to be happy and I’m not confident in his putting stroke as of recently, I’m just hoping this one won’t come back to bite me.
Kevin Na ($8,000) – While Na is having a decent year thus far, and has had some top ten finishes at this course, he also hasn’t finished higher than 60th in four years and has missed the cut 2 of the last 4 years at this event. He is a golfer I like to target in cash games and his price has me looking twice, but I don’t feel good about rostering him this week.
Will Wilcox ($7,300) – Despite being easily one of my favorite golfers on tour, Will “the thrill” does not typically do well on difficult courses in difficult fields, and has no history at this event. Despite planning on having a lot of Wilcox in my lineups this year, this week isn’t the week.
Francesco Molinari ($7,200) – As one of the lowest projected golfers in my model, Molinari will not be in any of my lineups this week, partly due to how poorly he plays out of the rough and in part due to his low upside as just a cut maker.
Lucas Glover ($7,000) – After a strong showing last week at AT&T Lucas Glover is going to be too highly owned for my liking. With how poorly Lucas Glover putts you can expect him to be somewhat volatile from week to week and it’s unlikely I’ll be on him with people chasing his recent performance.
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