There is a lot of data to digest when researching for golf. Course characteristics can tell us whether we want to favor long hitters, great putters or the best scramblers. Weather is crucial as strong wind early on Thursday would mean we want players teeing off later in the day. Figuring out exactly how good a golfer is relative to his DraftKings salary and the field sounds simple but is crucial.
The two topics I’ll be focusing on in this weekly article are course history and recent form. Like every other stat in every DFS sport, these two topics are a piece of the puzzle rather than the whole pie. But knowing who historically plays well at a certain course and who comes into the event in good form correlate significantly with DFS success as long as we have a solid sample size.
*The DEAN & DELUCA has been played at Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas since 1946.
DEAN & DELUCA Course History: The Good
1. Chris Kirk, $8,200
It’s been a tough season for Kirk, who missed four cuts in six tournaments leading up to THE PLAYERS. But he showed some life there, finishing 12th and he now gets a course he’s owned. Kirk has made six straight cuts at Colonial, a run which includes a win in 2015, a 5th in 2012 and five top-16 finishes.
2. Ryan Palmer, $7,900
Palmer was featured in this space last week at $8,200 and he went on for a solid 27th at the Byron Nelson. This week he’s gone down in salary, the field is weaker and he has an even better history on the course. Palmer did miss the cut here in 2015, but he was 3rd in 2016, 5th in 2014, 14th in 2013 and 5th in 2012. He’s also flashed considerable upside relative to price this season with a 6th at Valero and 11th at The Heritage.
3. Jordan Spieth, $12,000
I’m always hesitant to note the most expensive golfers in this space because they’re supposed to have good course history everywhere. It’s also typically priced in with these guys, as it is this week with Spieth. But we have to at least be aware that he’s absolutely dominated in his four appearances here with a 1st, 2nd, 14th and 7th. It’s a get-right spot as Spieth is coming off three missed cuts in his last four outings.
4. Charley Hoffman, $7,300
Hoffman was $10,700 at Valero just a month ago and $8,500 last week at Byron Nelson. Now he’s somehow dropped to $7,300 despite making six of his last seven cuts and having solid course history here at Colonial. Hoffman was 10th in 2015, 18th in 2013 and 13th in 2012. Overall, he’s made six straight cuts at this event.
DEAN & DELUCA Course History: The Bad
1. Paul Casey, $10,200
Casey is in the midst of an excellent season as he’s beat salary-based expectation in his last nine outings. That’s caused a significant price hike here as he’s over $10,000 for the first time all season. So there’s some concern that Casey has struggled a bit here with a 43rd in 2015 and missed cut in 2014 (he didn’t play this event in 2016).
2. James Hahn, $7,400
Hahn was spectacular last week, going off for 100.5 DK points at just $7,500 in the Byron Nelson. That will likely spike his ownership this week. It’s a dangerous spot to chase as Hahn has missed the cut in all three of his appearances at Colonial and also had seven straight 41st or worst finishes leading up to last week.
COMING IN HOT: RECENT FORM
1. Kevin Tway, $7,100
This is the third time I’ve highlighted Tway in this space as he continues to impress. The son of Bob was 20th at Byron Nelson last week, 5th at Wells Fargo and 3rd at Valero. However, his price has not reflected the way he’s playing – Tway is down to $7,100 after being priced up at $7,700 last week.
2. Sung Kang, $7,400
Kang has made a believer out of many on the PGA Tour as he’s now 29th in the FedEx Cup standings and has finished no worse than 30th in his last six events. That includes a 2nd in Houston, 11th at The Heritage and 6th at the Valero. Kang’s recent adjusted round score of 68.1 is fifth-best in this week’s field (via Fantasy Labs).
3. Kyle Stanley, $7,400
Stanley has extremely poor course history here at Colonial, but that was before the 29-year-old turned a corner with his game. He’s made 12-of-14 cuts this season and has been especially strong over the last month with three top-20s in his last four events. That includes a 4th at the ultra-tough field PLAYERS.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is AdamLevitan) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.