The Field

This is the second week of the Fedex playoffs and the field has been reduced to 100 players. The top 70 players and ties will still make the weekend though meaning that over 70% of the field will play four rounds. Getting your players through the cut line this week will be very important. In terms of players, almost everyone in the top 100 is playing this week with the exception of Sergio Garcia who is skipping the event for personal reasons. Rory McIlroy is returning to competition after doing more rehab for his injured ankle and Louis Oosthuizen also returns after resting his back for a week. Number 1 and number 3 players in the World golf rankings, Jordan Spieth and Jason Day also return.

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The Course

TPC Boston, Massachusetts

Par 71, 7200-7300 yards,
Stroke index-2014: 70.47

TPC Boston is one of my favorite courses of the year. It rewards aggressive play and features drivable par 4’s, reachable par 5’s but also some tough longer holes as well. The course was designed by Arnold Palmer in 2001 but redesigned in 2007 and actually shortened a bit (mainly a couple par 4’s). The front side is generally where players will need to get their scoring done as the first hole and the fourth both are drivable par 4’s. The second is also a reachable par 5 and plays as one of the easiest holes on the course. The back nine features tougher holes including a few longer par 4’s where players will need accurate drives off the tee. Fescue style rough lines this course in areas and players who are inaccurate could find themselves laying up for their second shot. The course finishes with a fairly easy par 5 and so expect to see some lead changes and possible drama on the finishing hole.

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Last 5 winners

Chris Kirk—2014 
Henrik Stenson—2013
Rory McIlroy—2012
Webb Simpson—2011
Charley Hoffman—2010

 

Winning Trends

The last 5 winners of this event have all ranked inside the top 25 in scoring average and within the top 27 in the all-around ranking in the year of their victory.

Three of the past five winners at the Deustche Bank had scored a T5 or better in their previous five starts before winning… four of the past five winners had scored a T10 or better in their previous 5 starts before their respective wins.

Statistics

Scoring Average
All-around
Par 5 scoring
Strokes Gained: tee to green

As mentioned previously, the winners of this event have all ranked highly in both scoring average and all-around. Players who can score well on a variety of different courses have tended to dominate here and an expansive skill-set is needed to go low. Good driving, putting and a short game will all be key and so looking at yearly scoring average and the all-around rankings to find good fantasy value makes sense this week. With that in mind scoring on the par 5’s here is absolutely crucial. There’s clear eagle chances on two of them and so those who rank highly in par 5 scoring should be given an extra boost. I also like looking at strokes gained: tee to green this week as well. Players ranked highly in this category have done well on this course which rewards strong driving and long approaches with birdie and eagle opportunities. All-in-all this is a week to look for the most quality, all-around players and ride them to some good scores.

Who’s had success at TPC Boston?

Phil Mickelson loves being aggressive on the golf course and this course has suited him well in the past. Phil won this event after the changes were made in 2007 and has a 10th and 4th in his past 5 visits.
Jason Day also loves this course. As if you needed more reason to play him he’s landed finishes 2nd, 3rd, 11th, and 7th in his past 5 starts at TPC Boston.
John Senden has good course form here for a lower priced player. Since 2009 he’s played here 5 times and never finished worse than 21st. Last year was his best finish at 5th.
Jason Dufner also has good course history. In his last five attempts his worst finish is 31st and he has an 9th and a 2nd in that span.

Who’s struggled at TPC Boston?

Bubba Watson hasn’t really taken a liking to TPC Boston. In his past five visits his best finish is a 16th, but he’s also finished outside of the top 30 on three occasions.
Zach Johnson hasn’t totally struggled at TPC Boston but he hasn’t thrived here either. In 7 visits he’s never cracked the top 10 at this event and has finished outside the top 20 four times.
Justin Rose looks to be in good form but he’s struggled at TPC Boston for the most part. In 6 starts since 2007 he’s missed the cut three times and has a best finish of 16th.
Hunter Mahan has played this event every year since 2007 but doesn’t have a ton to show for it. Only once has he finished inside the top 10 and only 3 times has he finished better than 30th.

DFS Strategy

You’ll need a high score this week to compete. Winning scores for the tournament have tended to hit -20 more often than not and so landing players with lots of birdie and eagle bonuses will be key. I’d really target golfers who rank well in par 5 scoring, scoring average and who have a good course history at TPC Boston. Being able to score well on this course is just as important as recent form for me this week.

My Pick: Brooks Koepka

Mr. Brooks is currently ranked 4th in scoring average, 6th in all-around, and 4th in par 5 scoring. He missed the cut last week but has really been circling the top of leaderboards for months now. I feel like this course suits him to an absolute tee and he should be able to slaughter many of the shorter par 4’s and 5’s this week. I expect a big bounce back and for him to have a great shot at picking up his second win of the season.