NASCAR PRICE CHECK
(FPPK = average fantasy points per $1,000 of salary.)
Set your lineups here: NAS $450K Piston [$100K to 1st]
1. Joey Logano ($10,700) – In the spring Las Vegas race, Logano scored 93 fantasy points. He scored 90 in the fall race at Las Vegas. The No. 22 team knows how to set up a low horsepower car for Las Vegas. (4.4 FPPK)
2. Kyle Busch ($12,400) – Early in the Las Vegas race, Kyle Busch hit the wall and went two laps down. He battled all race and his crew worked on his car during the few cautions. Eventually, Busch was back on the lead lap and near the top five when he wrecked into a lapper that “never even won a Late Model race.” (5.5 FPPK)
3. Martin Truex, Jr. ($11,600) – As the fall Las Vegas race transitioned from daytime to nighttime, Truex took over as he always does. The spring race is a daytime race, so that advantage will not be available. It may not be available at all this season; how much of Truex’s day-night dominance was due to former crew chief Cole Pearn? (5.6 FPPK)
4. Kevin Harvick ($12,000) – The SHR cars were trimmed out and were very loose. Harvick was able to manage the car and hold position early in the race. When the race track cooled off at night, the extra grip balanced the setup and Harvick led 47 laps. (4.6 FPPK)
5. Ryan Blaney ($9,200) – The DFS leaderboard was all Penske in the fall race. Logano scored the second-most points, Keselowski scored the sixth-most points, and Blaney scored the third-most points. Blaney earned 9.5 fast lap points and 18 place differential points. (4.2 FPPK)
6. Denny Hamlin ($10,200) – The 2020 season was a rebirth for Denny Hamlin, but Las Vegas was not one of his highpoints. Hamlin was not the best car in the field, but he was better than his 15th place finish. A tire issue in stage three ruined his day. (5.1 FPPK)
7. Brad Keselowski ($11,100) – During the second half of the season, the No. 2 team struggled with setups at the intermediate tracks. At Las Vegas, the team threw their hands up and defaulted to their setup from the spring race. It didn’t work for most of the race, but when the track cooled during stage three, Keselowski’s spring setup worked and he finished 3rd. (4.0 FPPK)
8. Chase Elliott ($9,500) – There is a correlation between practice speed and race speed. Elliott had the fastest lap-by-lap average in practice two and proceeded to score the most fast lap points in the race (18.5 fast lap points). (3.8 FPPK)
9. Erik Jones ($8,200) – Here’s a DFS NASCAR 101 lesson. Chalk in fantasy NASCAR is not nearly as safe as chalk in every other DFS contest. Erik Jones was starting 26th with a JGR car setup for the race, not qualifying. It was easy money until his car got stuck in second gear. (3.9 FPPK)
10. Aric Almirola ($7,800) – The SHR cars chose to trim out their cars and they qualified 1st through 4th. Over the course of the race, the cars with more downforce built into their setup passed the trimmed out SHR cars. Almirola faded from 4th to 13th. (3.4 FPPK)
11. Kurt Busch ($8,900) – Most intermediate tracks are caution-free green flag races. There is one exception – restarts. Side-by-side desperation on restarts leads to bumping and banging. A small tire rub on a restart cut Kurt’s tire. After a meeting with the wall, Busch finished last at Las Vegas. (3.9 FPPK)
12. Matt DiBenedetto ($7,400) – With Paul Menard behind the wheel, the No. 21 Wood Brothers car was the most consistent value driver in the 2019 season. This isn’t quite a value price tag, but DiBenedetto offers more upside than Menard did in 2019. (4.4 FPPK)
13. Alex Bowman ($8,700) – He finished 11th in the spring Las Vegas race and 6th in the fall race. At no point was he a threat to lead laps, but he’s not that far away from being a contender. (4.2 FPPK)
14. William Byron ($8,500) – Towards the end of the 2019 season, Byron and crew chief Chad Knaus were making great strides. At Las Vegas, Bryon ran inside the top 10 all race. (4.2 FPPK)
15. Kyle Larson ($9,800) – Jam Larson in at the short tracks because the low downforce package will be returning in 2020. In the high downforce, low horsepower races, you will be overpaying for a driver with not much upside. (4.0 FPPK)
16. Austin Dillon ($6,900) – The 2019 season was going to be Dillon’s worst season as a Cup driver, but RCR turned it around late in the season. Dillon was in the optimal lineup in two of the last three races (both were intermediate track races in the low horsepower package). (3.3 FPPK)
17. Clint Bowyer ($8,000) – At first glance, 2019 wasn’t terrible for Bowyer, but a deeper look reveals that it was pretty bad. In terms of average running position in the “high downforce, low horsepower” races, Bowyer ranked 20th. (3.3 FPPK)
18. Tyler Reddick ($6,500) – This isn’t a bad price tag for an RCR car. Reddick isn’t completely wet behind the ears. He gained experience in this package by finishing 9th in the Kansas spring race. Sure, he got lucky, but Tyler Reddick always gets lucky. (6.8 FPPK)
19. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. ($7,600) – Searching wide race tracks for the best line is Stenhouse’s wheelhouse. The fall Las Vegas results do not look appealing (26th), but it perfectly captures his GPP status. Stenhouse wrecked in stage one, but battled back onto the lead lap, only to throw it away with a green flag penalty in stage three. (4.8 FPPK)
20. Jimmie Johnson ($8,400) – All four Hendrick cars finished 11th or better at Las Vegas. Unfortunately for DFS players, Johnson started 9th and finished 11th. This is not the same driver that has won 31 times at 1.5-mile tracks. (3.2 FPPK)
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