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Game Flow Notes
HIGH O/U – GAME – Kings vs. Mavericks- The Kings have been scoring with the elite teams in the NBA, but have unfortunately been losing (other than last night). On a short slate this is a very attractive game with a 212 total. I like Rondo after his amazing performance last night. I will also be using Wes Matthews and Dirk in lines as the present great value on a short slate.
LOW O/U – GAME – Bucks vs. Bulls- Write the Bucks down and just know that they have the lowest total of the night. It really is that simple…With a total of 198.5 this is the lowest scoring game of the night. I love Buckets and Pau in this game, as well as a sprinkle of Monroe from the Bucks.
Pace of Play
HIGH PACE – GAME – Warriors vs. Lakers- This game has a projected game pace of 102.2. It will be very interesting to see if Kobe plays, as he comes into tonight as questionable. I also love where the Warriors guys come in for Cash games, but I worry that there could be an impending blowout tonight.
LOW PACE – GAME – Knicks vs. Hawks- The Bucks and the Bulls game is obviously the slowest pace of the night. On a limited slate the next slowest game is the Knicks. With a projected game pace of 97.1, this game doesn’t provide a lot of action. I do like Kristaps and Melo for the Knicks. The Hawks should rely a lot on Paul Millsap and Kent Bazemore.
Defense vs. Position
Point Guard Matchups
TARGET – Rajon Rondo vs. JJ Barea- Deron is questionable tonight, but does it even matter. If you are looking for narrative and the potential best revenge game of the year, look no further than this one. Rondo comes into tonight on fire and will look to hammer Dallas after his tumultuous time there.
Rajon Rondo is OUT tonight. Darren Collison should see more minutes in his place
AVOID – Jeff Teague vs. Jose Calderon- Calderon and the Knicks are ranked 10th against opposing PGs. Teague had a tough time against the Knicks during his last outing, putting up only 14 DK points. I think the struggle continues tonight.
Shooting Guard Matchups
TARGET – Wes Matthews vs. Darren Collison- The Kings struggle against SGs it is absolutely no secret. Matthews has a great price and a great matchup on a night that lacks a lot of value. He is the perfect storm for a value pick tonight.
AVOID – Lou Williams vs. Klay Thompson – Lou has been on fire lately, taking the brunt of the work for Kobe Bryant. If Kobe plays tonight this will limit Lou’s shots. Lou also has a tough matchup against Klay Thompson who has finally discovered his game again.
Small Forward Matchups
TARGET – Chandler Parsons vs. Rudy Gay- Gay struggles on the defensive end of the court. The Kings are ranked 25th against opposing SFs. Parsons is still priced at a reasonable amount and has a nice shot to hit value tonight.
AVOID – Kent Bazemore vs. Carmelo Anthony The Knicks are ranked 7th against opposing SFs. This can’t be any thanks to Melo, but it is still a stat. Bazemore has been great for the Hawks. However, tonight the matchup bids more to the guys in the post.
Power Forward Matchups
TARGET – Dirk Nowitzki vs. Omri Casspi – Casspi is questionable tonight and may not play. It doesn’t matter if he suits up or not the Kings are terrible against the PF position. Dirk has put together a nice season in his old age and has a great chance to exceed value tonight.
AVOID – Kristaps Porzingis vs. Paul Millsap – Millsap and the Hawks are ranked 11th against opposing PFs. Porzingis should have a tough go against one of the best PFs in the league tonight.
TARGET – Pau Gasol vs. Greg Monroe Gasol has really stepped up since the injury to Joakim Noah. He has also had to play more of a scoring role due to the terrible play of D Rose. I have him projected as the top C of the night and a great value play.
AVOID – DeMarcus Cousins vs. Zaza Pachulia- I know, this is very surprising considering Boogie is the 2nd highest projected scorer on the night. Zaza has been great this season and is becoming a great defender. I do think that Boogie hits value, but I doubt he exceeds on a short slate.
Lineup Quick Hits
Superstar Worth Paying For
Pau Gasol (7,800) – With Steph and Boogie on this slate it’s hard not to pay up for either. However, Steph may see his minutes drop in a blowout game and Boogie has a tougher matchup. Pau is cheaper than both and is still projected at 40+ DK points. During his last game he put up 52 DK points and has the ability to exceed value again tonight.
Save Big Bucks by Drafting
Jordan Clarkson (5,400) – I have been rolling Clarkson out religiously as of late. He has hit value in his last 4 games and is seeing over 30 minutes. In a game that could potential be a blowout tonight he should see a full gambit of minutes and have the ability to hit value.
Dud of the Night
Khris Middleton (7,000) – Middleton had a stretch of 50 point games, but has since come back down to earth. He has a tough matchup tonight against Jimmy Buckets and the Bulls. I expect him to see his regular minutes, but come in slightly under value.
This is not a comprehensive list. Be sure to check for injury updates throughout the day
Jerryd Bayless – Doubtful, Tiago Splitter – Out