Rankings below are based on a mixture of expected output and DraftKings’ NASCAR salaries for that day. These are the drivers in the lowest tier of salaries that have the opportunity to score 30 to 40 DFS points.
1. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($6,000) – Has Ricky experienced success at Martinsville? No. Has Ricky ever experienced a string of success similar to his recent run? No. Here is the setup: Stenhouse has five Martinsville races under his belt and only one top 15, but betting against Ricky and the Roush Ford’s over the last month hasn’t worked out either. There’s not a lot of low end value, so ride the hot hand.
2. Kurt Busch ($8,600) – Technically, this doesn’t qualify as a value pick, but Kurt is disgustingly under priced. In the last three Chase races, he’s finished inside the top 10. Kurt’s no slouch at Martinsville either. He scored big points in the 2015 Spring race and won the 2014 Spring race. In his last three races with Stewart-Haas at Martinsville, Kurt has been solid with a driver rating above 80 in each race.
3. Aric Almirola ($5,800) – Unlike Stenhouse, Almirola has raced well at Martinsville. Stenhouse has been more consistent over the last seven races of 2015, but Almirola averages a 23rd place finish over his career at Martinsville (average finish of 13th in his last 7 Martinsville races). Almirola is cheaper and has been better over the entire 2015 season.
4. Clint Bowyer ($7,300) – Once again, not quite as cheap as most value plays, but Martinsville is not necessarily at track where fantasy NASCAR players should dive into the bargain bin. Martinsville is a short, flat track. It’s called the Paperclip for a reason. Some drivers love this style of racing and at the top of that short list is Clint Bowyer. This is a man over machine race and the man finishes in the top 10 a lot. His 63% top 10 average at this short track ranks 4th.
5. Greg Biffle ($5,700) – He’s just too cheap. The Roush team (Biffle, Stenhouse, and Bayne) have all shown improvements over the last month. They are at least worth $6,000 in Daily Fantasy NASCAR. He won’t win, but his history at Martinsville proves that he’s a pretty safe pick to finish inside the top 20 (average finish of 20th in 25 races). He may not have the upside of the other drivers, but he’s an easy play in 50/50 games.