Rankings below are based on a mixture of expected output and DraftKings’ NASCAR salaries for that day. These are the drivers in the lowest tier of salaries that have the opportunity to score 30 to 40 DFS points.
1. Chase Elliott (8,300) – Upside, Upside, Upside. Of all the value plays, Elliott is the most likely to run up front in the Coca-Cola 600. The NAPA spokeskid could have a monster salary to points ratio. Why can he run up front? He’s really good and because he’s running a limited amount of Sprint Cup race in 2015, a lot of people have not jumped on the Chase Elliott band wagon. He’s racing for the best team with the most resources in NASCAR, Hendrick, and he has been for two years now (Jr. Motorsports is basically and a Hendrick proxy in the Xfinity series). It’s like Elliott got called up from the minor leagues by the ‘27 Yankees. “Here kid, you can bat 2nd.” From the DFS perspective, Chase’s stats will benefit from starting in the 28th position.
2. Aric Almirola (8000) – The Cuban Missile is 11th in the Sprint Cup standings, but he’s priced 31st on Draftkings. In all but one race, Almirola has finished in the top 20 (seven top 15 finishes). I can’t imagine passing up on Almirola at 8,000. Richard Petty Motorsports is not Hendrick, but it’s a still a top tier team. Almirola will start 21st. Based on 2015 results, he only stands to gain place differential points.
3. AJ Allmendinger (8,100) – The Dinger’s poor qualifying effort is bad for him, but great for us. At intermediate tracks this season, AJ has finished 7th, 6th, 21st, and 14th. Yeah I know, place differential jackpot. Although Allmendinger belongs to a single car team, JTG Daugherty racing has a technical alliance with RCR. Essentially, this means Allmendinger belongs to a major team. The Dinger is a combination of safe play and upside.
4. Ricky Stenhouse (7,900) – Texas is identical to Charlotte. At Texas, Stenhouse started 22nd and finished 15th for the 12th highest DFS score of the day. On Sunday, Stenhouse starts 29th and only costs $7,900. When you look at the names of the drivers behind him, it’s hard to imagine him sliding back. With just an average performance, Stenhouse could put forth a 30 point effort.
5. Paul Menard (8,400) – The Coca-Cola 600 is the longest race of the year; some cars just aren’t going to make it. Don’t be cute. If you take a flyer on a driver in the $7,000 range, your night might be over before the sun sets. Menard has a little upside, but his main draw is that he’s a safe play. At intermediate tracks this season he’s finished 13th, 12th, 41st, and 18th. We’ll take 30 plus points at $8,400.