Rankings below are based on a mixture of expected output and DraftKings’ NASCAR salaries for that day. The ordering is not based on highest projected fantasy totals, but rather by the value of each driver.

(fppk = average fantasy points per $1,000 of salary. The typical median fppk for a 2016 race was in the 3s. Plate tracks tend to be lower and short tracks tend to run higher due to the number of laps.)

RankDriverSalary
1Brad Keselowski$9,500
2Kevin Harvick$9,800
3Jimmie Johnson$10,600
4Joey Logano$10,100
5Kyle Busch$10,300

1. Brad Keselowski ($9,500) – A good finish is great, but in daily fantasy NASCAR, we care about fantasy points. In the last four Martinsville races, BK has scored the seventh-most fantasy points or more in each race. (5.2 fppk)

2. Kevin Harvick ($9,800) – Always dig deeper than finishing position. Kevin Harvick finished 20th last fall at Martinsville, he must not be that good. Wrong. He had to start from the back and got hit with a pit road speeding penalty. In the three prior Martinsville races, his driver rating was over 110 points in each. (4.3 fppk)

3. Jimmie Johnson ($10,600) – It’s the same old story. Johnson has great track history, but he hasn’t been a consistent top tier daily fantasy performer over the last two seasons. Martinsville is such a unique track that whether you like it or not, you have to heavily weigh Johnson’s historical stats. (3.6 fppk)

4. Joey Logano ($10,100) – The Penske 22 car is not just a top-10 car; it’s a car that’s capable of scoring fast lap and laps led points. Nothing changes when this car rolls into Martinsville. Over the last six races at this short track, Logano is averaging the fourth-most fantasy points (56 pts.) (4.8 fppk)

5. Kyle Busch ($10,300) – Last Spring, Kyle Busch score 181 DraftKings fantasy NASCAR points at Martinsville. That was the second most fantasy points by a driver last season. (3.4 fppk)


RankDriverSalary
6Martin Truex, Jr.$9,400
7Denny Hamlin$9,700
8Kyle Larson$10,000
9Chase Elliott$9,100
10Dale Earnhardt, Jr.$8,600

6. Martin Truex, Jr. ($9,400) – Last season Truex was good everywhere. Be it flat, short, long, or wide, Truex was fast at every track. In the fall Martinsville race, Truex scored the second most fantasy points. (6.9 fppk)

7. Denny Hamlin ($9,700) – Martinsville is Denny Hamlin’s track. Several years have passed since he has truly dominated this Virginia short track, but he’s still one of the five best at “The Paperclip.” (2.5 fppk)

8. Kyle Larson ($10,000) – Last week didn’t just happen. Larson has been improving and growing every week for the last four seasons. It should not be a surprise that in his five races at Martinsville his average running position has steadily improved with each race. (6.5 fppk)

9. Chase Elliott ($9,100) – The Chase Elliot bandwagon is chugging along, but we might need to ease up on the throttle this week. Elliott does not have much experience at Martinsville, and this is a track that takes time to master. Having the best car is not a panacea in southside Virginia. (5.6 fppk)

10. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. ($8,600) – The guy missed half of a season; it’s going to take a little while to get readjusted. Martinsville has been a good track for Junior of late. In three of his last four races at Martinsville, he’s scored 65 or more fantasy points. (1.6 fppk)


RankDriverSalary
11Matt Kenseth$8,800
12AJ Allmendinger$8,300
13Clint Bowyer$8,000
14Kurt Busch$7,900
15Austin Dillon$7,000

11. Matt Kenseth ($8,800) – The driver and the car are too good to remove from the rankings. If Kenseth continues to wreck each week, then hard choices will be made. Kenseth has scored negative points in three races this season. Last fall at Martinsville, Kenseth scored the most fantasy points (116.5 points). (0.5 fppk)

12. AJ Allmendinger ($8,300) – Say it with me, Allmendinger is a short, flat track guy. If I could hide subtle brainwashing clues in this paragraph, then I would. For now, just know that his Martinsville finishes are on par with elite drivers. (4.7 fppk)

13. Clint Bowyer ($8,000) – Ladies and Gentleman, please rise and welcome back Clint Bowyer. After two years in purgatory and seemingly vanishing from the sport, Clint Bowyer has become a top-10, dare I say, top-five driver. (4.1 fppk)

14. Kurt Busch ($7,900) – In 2016, Kurt was was a top-five driver in the spring. This spring, he may be the worst driver for a big team. It might not get any better this week. Kurt has one top-10 in the last 20 Martinsville races. (2.7 fppk)

15. Austin Dillon ($7,000) – The season didn’t start the way that he wanted, but Dillon has steadily improved each week (14th avg. position at Fontana). In five of his six Martinsville races, Dillon has scored 39 or more fantasy points. (2.5 fppk)


RankDriverSalary
16Ryan Newman$7,400
17Ryan Blaney$7,700
18Aric Almirola$7,100
19Erik Jones$7,600
20Landon Cassill$5,400

16. Ryan Newman ($7,400) – In the last two races, Newman has finished six spots better than his average running position. He caught some breaks. At Atlanta and Las Vegas, the breaks went another way. Newman is a 15th place driver that sometimes gets boosted and sometimes gets busted. (3.1 fppk)

17. Ryan Blaney ($7,700) – Martinsville is a tough track on rookies, so Blaney’s two top-20s last year are impressive. If he continues to improve, as most drivers do when they gain experience at Martinsville, he could creep into the top-10 this weekend. (5.2 fppk)

18. Aric Almirola ($7,100) – Is Almirola a playoff contender? It’s not likely, but is he a great fantasy NASCAR driver? Absolutely. The 43 car is averaging 39 fantasy points per race this season. (5.8 fppk)

19. Erik Jones ($7,600) – The lack of Martinsville experience is a concern. Jones has been very impressive in his rookie season, but this week is different. Martinsville rewards great drivers with experience, not great cars. (3.7 fppk)

20. Landon Cassill ($5,400) – It hasn’t been a great year for Cassill, but it hasn’t been a bad year either. He has finished 28th or better in every race. Over the last six Martinsville races, he’s averaging 31 fantasy points. He’ll likely be a very popular value play this weekend. (4.3 fppk)

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.