Rankings below are based on a mixture of expected output and DraftKings’ NASCAR salaries for that day. The ordering is not based on highest projected fantasy totals, but rather by value of each driver.

(fppk = average fantasy points per $1,000 of salary. The typical median fppk for a 2015 race was in the 3s. Plate tracks tend to be lower and short tracks tend to run higher due to the amount of laps.)

RankDriverSalary
1Jimmie Johnson$10,400
2Kevin Harvick$9,900
3Joey Logano$10,200
4Denny Hamlin$10,100
5Martin Truex, Jr.$8,400

1. Jimmie Johnson $(10,400) – With just five races in the books, Johnson already has two wins. Could Martinsville be number 3? Among active drivers at Martinsville, Jimmie has the most wins (8) and the highest career driver rating (118.3). (6.4 fppk)

2. Kevin Harvick ($9,900) – Here’s the old, busted, worn out line: “wins are overrated in fantasy NASCAR.” Kevin Harvick practically coined this phrase. Forget about the wins, he’s averaging 71.9 fantasy points per race. (8.1 fppk)

3. Joey Logano ($10,200) – The last time Logano did a driver dirty, he got put into the wall at Martinsville. Logano raced well at Fontana (4th), but he wrecked Martin Truex, Jr. The Penske 22 has been the highest rated car at Martinsville over the last 5 races, but revenge is real. (4.8 fppk)

4. Denny Hamlin ($10,100) – Back-to-back 3rd place finishes and domination at Martinsville rockets Hamlin up the rankings. Hamin has the 4th highest average DFS score (49 pts) over the last five Martinsville races. (4.8 fppk)

5. Martin Truex Jr. ($8,400) – The box score does not tell the whole story for Fontana. Truex had a top 5 car and was on his way to 60 fantasy points before Logano ruined his day. Truex finished 6th in both Martinsville races last year, but finishing position may be a low priority item on Truex’s to-do list this weekend. (4.5 fppk)

RankDriverSalary
6Kyle Busch$9,800
7Dale Earnhardt, Jr.$9,000
8Carl Edwards$8,700
9Brian Vickers$5,500
10Kurt Busch$8,800

6. Kyle Busch ($9,800) – One bad race and Kyle drops like a rock? One late race wreck when Kyle was a heavy fantasy favorite? Yes. Kyle is a top 5 driver year, but there are better drivers at Martinsville. (5.7 fppk)

7. Dale Earnhardt Jr. ($9,000) – Junior battled a mishandling car all weekend at Fontana. Somehow he finished 11th for yet another great fantasy day. Martinsville is one of Junior’s favorite tracks (99.4 career driver rating). (5.2 fppk)

8. Carl Edwards ($8,700) – It was a tiny step backwards last week for Carl. In his defense, and many other drivers, Fontana was a crazy race filled with wrecks and pit road mistakes. Edwards has the third best average finish (7th). How is he this cheap? (5.3 fppk)

9. Brian Vickers ($5,500) – The car is underpriced. The driver is underpriced. Vickers has solid career numbers at Martinsville (average finish of 16th over the last 5). What really stands out is that Vickers hit a wall in Fontana, but recovered to finish 13th. (2.7 fppk)

10. Kurt Busch ($8,800) – After burning DFS players week after week, Kurt’s price drops, setting up a difficult decision. The 41 car had top 3 speed each week. Kurt won at Martinsville in 2014. At sub a $9,000 salary, Kurt is a part of the conversation this week. (3.9 fppk)

RankDriverSalary
11Brad Keselowski$9,500
12Matt Kenseth$9,700
13Chase Elliott$8,000
14AJ Allmendinger$6,400
15Ryan Blaney$6,600

11. Brad Keselowski ($9,500) – A top 10 is great in real racing, especially in a chaotic race at Fontana. BK was a safe place differential play, but he did not hit a homerun at Fontana. At Martinsville he should be an underrated play. If not for a late race wreck, BK would have had the highest DFS score in the fall 2015 race. (4.1 fppk)

12. Matt Kenseth ($9,700) – Kenseth may have been the car to beat at Fontana, but we’ll never know because two penalties derailed his day. Since joining JGR, Kenseth has been good at Martinsville. (2.4 fppk)

13. Chase Elliott ($8,000) – The price is just too cheap. Sure, he’s a rookie, but he has three top 10s in five races. This 24 car won at Martinsville last Fall. On the other hand, Elliot only has 2 truck races and a forgettable Sprint Cup race at Martinsville under his belt. (2.9 fppk)

14. AJ Allmendinger ($6,400) – Last week was your wake up call. The Allmendinger bandwagon is about to leave the station. The Dinger has the 6th highest fppk. Martinsville suits AJ’s driving style. Throw out the spring 2015 race (oil leak), Allmendinger has finished 11th or better in the last three Martinsville races. (5.1 fppk)

15. Ryan Blaney ($6,600) – Elliot and Blaney are going to make mistakes. Blaney ran around the top 15 all day until he hit a wall. A lot of good drivers tangled with the wall at Fontana. Blaney’s only experience at Martinville is in the truck series, but he does have 3 top 5s in 5 races. (3.2 fppk)

RankDriverSalary
16Aric Almirola$6,700
17Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.$6,500
18Ryan Newman$7,300
19Austin Dillon$6,700
20Paul Menard$6,500

16. Aric Almirola ($6,700) – A 27 point fantasy day doesn’t do it in GPPs. In cash games, Almirola’s 27 points is beautiful. Plug him in each week and have one less driver to worry about. (4.7 fppk)

17. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. ($6,500) – Only 16th after a top 5? Ricky is on his way to the best year of his career, but Fontana was more about not screwing up. A mistake free Ricky Stenhouse is a Chase driver, but that doesn’t mean he leads laps. (3.7 fppk)

18. Ryan Newman ($7,300) – It’s hard to take Newman to the dance when he starts inside the top 10. Newman had his usual top 15 day, but negative place differential points are fantasy NASCAR poison. (3.0 fppk)

19. Austin Dillon ($6,700) – Call it “cosmic karma.” After a year of Austin Dillon bashing at The Playbook, I finally admit that Dillon is an elite driver. He responded by finishing 24th and scoring negative 3 points. Don’t give up on him yet, though. (4.6 fppk)

20. Paul Menard ($6,500) – Jamie McMurray is the better driver this year, but Menard is $2,100 cheaper. Menard recorded his 4th top 20 of the season at Fontana. You can pencil him in for similar results at Martinsville. (3.6 fppk)