Rankings below are based on a mixture of expected output and DraftKings’ NASCAR salaries for that day. The ordering is not based on highest projected fantasy totals, but rather by value of each driver.

(fppk = average fantasy points per $1,000 of salary. The typical median fppk for a 2016 race was in the 3s. Plate tracks tend to be lower and short tracks tend to run higher due to the amount of laps.)

1Kevin Harvick$10,700
2Joey Logano$10,400
3Brad Keselowski$10,200
4Carl Edwards$9,500
5Martin Truex Jr$9,900

1. Kevin Harvick ($10,700) – His only bad race in the last 7 Michigan races wasn’t a bad race. He dominated the spring 2015 race, but his crew made a mistake. Sound familiar with Harvick? Harvick gets a lot of love at Phoenix, but Michigan is not far behind. (6.4 fppk)

2. Joey Logano ($10,400) – Harvick won last week and no one is near his average points per race, so Logano falls to second. If the rankings were based purely on track history, Logano may have dethroned Harvick. Logano owned Michigan in the 2016 low-low downforce package in the spring. (3.7 fppk)

3. Brad Keselowski ($10,200) – All of the teams want to win in the heart of the auto industry, but this track means more to its former owner, Roger Penske. This track means more to Brad Keselowski because it’s his hometown track. He has not won in Michigan, but he has 5 consecutive top 10s and 10 consecutive top 15s. (4.7 fppk)

4. Carl Edwards ($9,500) – Since joining JGR last season, Edwards has averaged 41 fantasy points per race at Michigan (Finishes of 6th, 6th, and 12th). That’s pretty much been the trend at every track since joining JGR. (4.8 fppk)

5. Martin Truex, Jr. ($9,900) – Last season, Truex finished 3rd in both Michigan races. This spring he was running 4th late in the race when he wrecked due to a poor restart on the front row by Chase Elliott. Truex has run the 3rd most fast laps in 2016 and this track is all about engineered speed. (5.3 fppk)

6Denny Hamlin$8,900
7Matt Kenseth$9,700
8Kyle Busch$10,000
9Kurt Busch$9,100
10Austin Dillon$7,900

6. Denny Hamlin ($8,900) – The hottest driver in NASCAR has finished outside of the top 20 in 7 of last 10 races at Michigan. Hamlin has run well in his last 4 at Michigan (avg pos of 12th). Lean on current form and recent track history. (3.4 fppk)

7. Matt Kenseth ($9,700) – The 2015 Fall Michigan race was the Matt Kenseth show, but that show was canceled. NASCAR experimented with a high downforce package at that race. It was a disaster. Mr. Magoo could have started from the pole and finished with the most fantasy points. (3.8 fppk)

8. Kyle Busch ($10,000) – This is not his track. Kyle conquered Kansas and Martinsville for the first time this year, so a Michigan turnaround is possible. If you’re not a Rowdy fan, then you’ll probably focus on this stat: Busch has finished outside of the top 30 in 6 of the last 7 Michigan races. (5.2 fppk)

9. Kurt Busch ($9,100) – A win’s a win, but his victory in the rain shortened 2015 Spring Michigan race should be downgraded. In 5 of the last 10 Michigan race, Kurt has finished 30th or worse. (4.1 fppk)

10. Austin Dillon ($7,900) – This is the first time in a long time that Dillon seems to be underpriced. At Bristol, Dillon tallied his 15th race of 30 fantasy points or more. Dillon qualified too high to score big points in the last two Michigan races, but he ran well (both top 10 finishes). (4.1 fppk)

11Kasey Kahne$7,800
12Kyle Larson$8,500
13Trevor Bayne$6,300
14Jamie McMurray$7,600
15Ryan Newman$7,700

11. Kasey Kahne ($7,800) – Major NASCAR media outlets don’t see a story in Kasey Kahne. He’s not going to make the playoffs, but the Hendrick driver keeps rolling off 30 point fantasy performances every week (31 ppr over the last 10 races), At Michigan, Kahne has 6 consecutive top 15 finishes. (3.5 fppk)

12. Kyle Larson ($8,500) – In 5 Michigan races, Larson has 4 top 20s (2 top 10s), and a wreck. The Ganassi racer is at his best during the summer months when the track types change weekly. He desperately needs to win to make the playoffs. He was close in the spring, he finished 3rd. (3.8 fppk)

13. Trevor Bayne ($6,300) – Who had Trevor Bayne as the number one value play of 2016? Somehow his salary hasn’t changed too much over the course of this season. His fppk is the 6th best in NASCAR. He has 7 top 20s in the last 10 races and he finished 15th in the Spring Michigan race. (4.6 fppk)

14. Jamie McMurray ($7,600) – Without a win, McMurray is hanging on to one of the few remaining playoff spots. His precarious position does not reflect his season. Jamie Mac has 7 top 10s and 18 top 20s in 23 races. His worst finish is 26th – the best worst finish in NASCAR. (4.1 fppk)

15. Ryan Newman ($7,700) – Bristol was disappointing for Newman, but his safe-play doppleganger, McMurray started 28th. Hopefully, not many players were burned. In the last 10 Michigan races, Newman has 8 top 15s (10 top 20s). (3.8 fppk)

16Jimmie Johnson$9,300
17Tony Stewart$8,300
18Paul Menard$7,100
19Ricky Stenhouse Jr$6,700
20Landon Cassill$5,600

16. Jimmie Johnson ($9,300) – His 7th place finish at Bristol was just his second top 10 in the last 10 races. Adding another top 10 won’t be easy this week. Like many top tier drivers, Johnson is good half of the time, and bad the rest of the time. (3.5 fppk)

17. Tony Stewart ($8,300) – A mechanical failure ended his hot streak at Bristol, and Michigan isn’t the best place for Tony to start another streak. In the last 3 Michigan races, Tony has gone backwards with place differential scores of -4, -16, and -13. Before you fade Smoke, recent track history hasn’t been very reliable when analyzing the future hall of famer. (3.7 fppk)

18. Paul Menard ($7,100) – The season is a wash in terms of the Chase, but his Fantasy NASCAR season has been pretty solid. Menard has hit 4 times value+ 13 times (4 of the last 6 races). In his last 10 races at Michigan, Menard has 7 top 15s (4 top 10s). (3.0 fppk)

19. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. ($6,700) – Dillon and Buescher are in the playoffs. Bayne is having a great year and everyone is rooting for Kyle Larson. What about Ricky? He finished 2nd at Bristol last week. He’s hit 5 times value or more in 5 of the last 10 races. (3.5 fppk)

20. Landon Cassill ($5,600) – His fppk is the 7th best in NASCAR. Here’s the theory: Chris Buescher was loaned to the Front Row team at the beginning of the year from Roush. When Buescher earned a playoff spot, Roush decided to share more tech, info, etc. Which means more knowledge for Cassill. (3.3 fppk)

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.