WATCH: PRICE CHECK KOBALT 400


Rankings are based on a mixture of expected output and DraftKings’ NASCAR salaries for that day. The ordering is not based on highest projected fantasy totals, but rather by the value of each driver.

(fppk = average fantasy points per $1,000 of salary. The typical median fppk for a 2016 race was in the 3s. Plate tracks tend to be lower and short tracks tend to run higher due to the number of laps.)

RankDriverSalary
1Joey Logano$10,000
2Brad Keselowski$10,400
3Kevin Harvick$10,700
4Martin Truex, Jr.$9,500
5Kyle Busch$10,100

1. Joey Logano ($10,000) – In the last 3 Las Vegas races, Logano has three top 10s, and he’s scored 20 or more fast lap/laps led points in each race. Last week at Atlanta, he finished sixth and scored the fourth most fast lap points (his Penske teammates were second and third). (4.2 fppk)

2. Brad Keselowski ($10,400) – Team Penske qualified first and second last year at Las Vegas. Starting position was key to hanging around the front and sneaking away with the win. BK does not dominate races, but through pit strategy, he steals them (e.g. Atlanta last week). (4.3 fppk)

3. Kevin Harvick ($10,700) – In Daily Fantasy NASCAR, we do not care that Harvick lost the Atlanta race. Drew Brees can lose every game, as long as he throws for 300 yards and a couple touchdowns. In 2015, Harvick won the Las Vegas race and scored 138 fantasy points. (5.7 fppk)

4. Martin Truex, Jr. ($9,500) – The 2016 King of Intermediate Tracks (unofficial) had a so-so day with an 11th place finish at Las Vegas last season, but it could have been better. Truex had to pit under green for a loose lug nut. Last week, he was fine; it was just a Harvick week. (5.4 fppk)

5. Kyle Busch ($10,100) – This is Rowdy’s hometown track. It shouldn’t be a surprise that he’s finished inside the top five in daily fantasy points in each of his last three Las Vegas races. (5.0 fppk)


RankDriverSalary
6Matt Kenseth$9,000
7Kurt Busch$8,300
8Jimmie Johnson$10,200
9Dale Earnhardt, Jr.$9,200
10Paul Menard$6,800

6. Matt Kenseth ($9,000) – Last year, unfortunate events ruined what could have been a great Atlanta race for Kenseth. This year, he finished third and scored the fourth-most fantasy points. Last year, Kenseth had a top five car at Las Vegas, but he wrecked during a late race restart. Could there be a trend? (4.3 fppk)

7. Kurt Busch ($8,300) – Would you believe that this is Kurt Busch’s hometown track, too? Based on his results, you probably wouldn’t. Regardless of his track history, Kurt has been an incredibly safe top 10 pick. It’s by design; this is not a risk-taking team. (4.0 fppk)

8. Jimmie Johnson ($10,200) – Even before the “lucky dog” controversy that cost Johnson a lap, the Atlanta race was disappointing. This presents a predicament. Again, Johnson’s track history this weekend is outstanding, but DraftKings players should be leery of his current form. (4.2 fppk)

9. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. ($9,200) – It’s easy to forget about Atlanta when you look at Junior’s Las Vegas stats. He has eight top 10s in the last nine Las Vegas races. A win is far-fetched, but I think he’s a safe pick in 50/50 lineups. (3.5 fppk)

10. Paul Menard ($6,800) – This will likely be the popular value play of the week. Menard has a top 15 finish in each of the last six Las Vegas races, but it gets better. Menard has finished with a top 10 daily fantasy NASCAR score in four of the last six races (in 2011, he was 11th). (n/a fppk)


RankDriverSalary
11Erik Jones$7,100
12Kyle Larson$8,800
13Denny Hamlin$8,600
14Trevor Bayne$6,100
15Chase Elliott$9,700

11. Erik Jones ($7,100) – A JGR allied Toyota is always a top 15 car. From there, it’s up to the driver to not screw up. Jones should not have any problems putting this car inside the top 15 at intermediate tracks. (n/a fppk)

12. Kyle Larson ($8,800) – Are you a pessimist or an optimist? Kyle Larson almost won in each of the last three Cup races. Kyle Larson choked in each of the last three Cup races. Wins are overrated in Daily Fantasy NASCAR. Larson has proven he can score laps led and fast lap points. (4.4 fppk)

13. Denny Hamlin ($8,600) – A mechanical issue ruined Hamlin’s Atlanta race. What if he had a good day and finished 10th? That’s 34 fantasy points and it would have tied Danica for 16th on the fantasy scoreboard. Danica’s salary was $2,000 less. (3.9 fppk)

14. Trevor Bayne ($6,100) – Here’s a theory: A three-car team was too big for Roush-Fenway Racing. Bayne’s average running position at Atlanta last week was 11th. Yes, the Roush Fords were inside the top 15 all day. This looks like the year of Ford. (4.0 fppk)

15. Chase Elliott ($9,700) – Here’s your weekly reminder to look beyond the finishing position stat. In the 2016 Las Vegas race, Elliot got caught up in Matt Kenseth’s wreck. Before that, he was a top 10 car the entire race. Last week, Elliott tied for the second best average running position. (4.1 fppk)


RankDriverSalary
16Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.$6,700
17Austin Dillon$8,200
18Kasey Kahne$8,400
19Clint Bowyer$8,000
20Ryan Newman$7,800

16. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. ($6,700) – When Stenhouse qualifies inside the top 10, I do not roster him. That was the case last week. His average running position was ninth and he finished 13th, but he only scored 26.5 fantasy points (20th). On the bright side, the Roush Ford’s look good. (3.4 fppk)

17. Austin Dillon ($8,200) – The three car is good enough to finish inside the top 10, and Dillon is smart enough to get it car there. The problem with Dillon is that his average starting position is 14th. His fantasy point production is limited by a lack of place differential points. (3.6 fppk)

18. Kasey Kahne ($8,400) – The Kasey Kahne Comeback Club is picking up steam. He’s been featured in the rankings weekly since last season. As Czar of the Comeback Club, I’m bullish on Kahne, but I’m no fool. Kahne received the “lucky dog” free pass twice last week. (4.0 fppk)

19. Clint Bowyer ($8,000) – Given Bowyer’s dreadful 2016, his price tag made him an easy fade for me last week. Mistake. Bowyer is in a good ride and the old Bowyer is back. His average running position last week was 11th. Last year, his average running position at 1.5-mile tracks was 26th. (4.2 fppk)

20. Ryan Newman ($7,800) – This is a first, but a driver that scored -20 fantasy points last week is ranked in the top 20. His battery died along with all of the other RCR drivers. Before that, he nearly won the pole and had an average running position of eighth. (3.8 fppk)

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.