Rankings below are based on a mixture of expected output and DraftKings’ NASCAR salaries for that day. The ordering is not based on highest projected fantasy totals, but rather by value of each driver.

(FPPK = average fantasy points per $1,000 of salary. The typical median fppk for a 2015 race was in the 3s. Plate tracks tend to be lower and short tracks tend to run higher due to the amount of laps)

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1. Kevin Harvick ($10,800) – If you don’t know Harvick’s stats at Phoenix, then you haven’t done any research. That’s okay. Harvick is tough not to pick this week. He’s won 4 of the last 5 races at Phoenix and is averaging an unbelievable 141 fantasy points per race over that span. (6.0 FPPK)

2. Jimmie Johnson ($10,300) – It’s more than likely no one will score more fantasy points than Harvick this weekend, but someone might steal a win from him. Johnson did it in Atlanta; he can do it again. Statistically, Johnson is a distant second to Harvick, but still, most drivers would kill for Jimmie’s 4 wins at Phoenix. (7.1 FPPK)

3. Joey Logano ($9,900) – During the Logano/Keselowski era at Team Penske, the duo has 10 top 10s in 12 Phoenix races. Logano has the edge when it comes to driver rating (113.9) and average position (6th) over the last 5 races. (5.7 FPPK)

4. Brad Keselowski ($9,700) – Team Penske lacked speed in race trim during the Las Vegas practices, but up front in clean air, starting position meant more than practice speeds. BK hung up front and took the lead when it mattered. BK’s average running position at Phoenix over the last 5 races is 7th (3rd). (5.1 fppk)

5. Kyle Busch ($10,000) – It’s shocking that Kyle has dropped to 5th in the rankings, but Phoenix is not his track. Kyle has three top 5s this season and has the second highest fantasy points per race average. (7.0 FPPK)

6. Dale Earnhardt Jr. ($9,200) – On one hand, Junior won the Fall 2015 Phoenix race. On the other hand, Dale Jr’s 58.5 points was barely half of what Harvick scored. So this is definitely to be considered when looking at Junior. (3.5 FPPK)

7. Kurt Busch ($9,600) – This car has been stupid fast to start the season. At Atlanta, Kurt faded. At Las Vegas, Kurt messed up, but roared back to the front for a top 10 finish. At Phoenix, Kurt has 4 top 10s in the last 5 races and the 6th best driver rating over that span. (4.8 fppk)

8. Ryan Newman ($7,500) – He’s underpriced, as always, but this week it’s egregious. Newman loves Phoenix. He’s finished 11th or better in the last 5 Phoenix races. In the 7 races before that, he had 5 top 5s. (4.8 FPPK)

9. Carl Edwards ($9,400) – Last week, Edwards followed the DFS script and plowed through the field with ease. Unfortunately, there was a plot twist, and Edwards got caught up in the Kenseth wreck. Edwards looks great this year and may benefit from recency bias. (4.6 FPPK)

10. Matt Kenseth ($9,800) – Snake bitten, bad juju, call it whatever you want. Kenseth has a winning ride, but a dark storm cloud seems to hang above his shoulder. At Phoneix, JGR is just a little above average. (1.8 FPPK)

11. Ryan Blaney ($6,500) – What would happen if Chase Elliott didn’t wreck at Las Vegas? Ryan Blaney would have happened. The last lap ruined Atlanta for him, but Blaney would not be denied at Vegas, taking home a 6th place finish for the adjunct Penske car. (4.2 FPPK)

“[He] has consistently finished inside the top 20 at Phoenix during his career”

12. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. ($6,600) – Here we go again. Las Vegas was another solid race for Ricky, but a good starting position limited his fantasy ceiling. Stenhouse has consistently finished inside the top 20 at Phoenix during his career. (4.5 FPPK)

13. Chase Elliott ($7,700) – It’s hard to support a driver that has a negative FPPK in two of three races, but wrecks happen. When Elliott isn’t ruining his day, he’s speeding around inside the top 10. The Las Vegas wreck wasn’t even his fault, but the uncommonly seasoned rookie took responsibility. (0.9 FPPK)

14. Ty Dillon ($5,400) -Dillon ran well at Atlanta, and he now has 4 tops 10s in 4 Xfinity starts at Phoenix. In his second career Sprint Cup race, Dillon finished 27th at Phoenix. (2.1 FPPK)


15. Aric Almirola ($6,700) – Las Vegas was ugly, and it proved that Almirola is not invincible. Anytime Almirola starts inside the top 15, he becomes very difficult to roster. Almirola wasn’t having that greatest of a days at Vegas, but a pit road mistake buried him. (4.9 FPPK)

16. Trevor Bayne ($5,800) – At Atlanta, Bayne hung a 4 on the fantasy scoreboard, but anyone with a set of eyes saw that coming. Bayne has looked a lot better this season. If he starts inside the top 20, then he’s fantasy irrelevant. If he’s outside of the top 20, take note. (2.9 FPPK)

17. Austin Dillon ($6,800) – The number 3 team did everything they could to sabotage their day. However, a poor pit stop and a speeding penalty would not stop this speedy Richard Childress Racing car. A fortuitous caution and dirty air that stagnated the field locked Dillon into the top 5. (5.7 FPPK)

18. Jamie McMurray ($7,800) – It didn’t seem like Jamie Mac would be a factor at Las Vegas. He was starting from the rear and driving a self-described 30th place car. Practice isn’t the race, and McMurray worked his way to 16th for 41 fantasy points and the 11th best FPPK. (2.8 FPPK)

19. Martin Truex Jr. ($9,300) – The Furniture Row team took a small step backwards, but they’re still a top 10 car. At Phoenix, Truex ranks just outside the top 10 over the last 5 races. Truex will have to show something in practice to justify his price this week. (6.4 FPPK)

20. Denny Hamlin ($9,500) – We’re not in Daytona anymore, Toto. For the second week in a row, Hamlin did not have a winning car. Hamlin has 9 top 5s at Phoenix, but he hasn’t looked that great in the desert over the last couple years. (4.8 FPPK)