Rankings below are based on a mixture of expected output and DraftKings’ NASCAR salaries for that day. The ordering is not based on highest projected fantasy totals, but rather by value of each driver.

(fppk = average fantasy points per $1,000 of salary. The typical median fppk for a 2016 race was in the 3s. Plate tracks tend to be lower and short tracks tend to run higher due to the amount of laps.)

RANKDRIVERSALARY
1Joey Logano$10,200
2Carl Edwards$9,700
3Martin Truex Jr.$10,000
4Jimmie Johnson$10,800
5Kevin Harvick$10,700

1. Joey Logano ($10,200) – For most of the season, Logano has been a top 10 car at every track, but he never had elite speed. In the last two races, he’s had the best car in NASCAR. He scored the most fantasy points in the last intermediate track race and the second most points in the last short track race. (4.2 fppk)

2. Carl Edwards ($9,700) – A month ago, it seemed like Carl did not have the car to compete with the top tier drivers. Things change. Edwards ran the most fast laps at Kansas and the third most at Texas. (4.2 fppk)

3. Martin Truex, Jr. ($10,000) – The best car at intermediate tracks has been the 78. It’s not close. Truex resumed his dominance at Texas by scoring the second most fantasy points. (5.6 fppk)

4. Jimmie Johnson ($10,800) – He’s never won at Homestead, but he’s never had to win at Homestead. In the past, more often than not, the champion only need an average day to win the season long points title. His 10 top 10s in 15 Homestead races should not be a surprise. (4.1 fppk)

5. Kevin Harvick ($10,700) – If you’re looking for Homestead success, then Harvick should be on the top of your list. In 15 races at this Miami track, Harvick has 13 top 10s. (5.6 fppk)


RANKDRIVERSALARY
6Kyle Larson$8,800
7Kyle Busch$10,500
8Brad Keselowski$9,500
9Matt Kenseth$9,300
10Kurt Busch$8,400

6. Kyle Larson ($8,800) – If you dare run near the wall at Homestead, then you can find some extra speed. That’s what Larson does. Sometimes it works (most fantasy points at Homestead in 2015). Sometimes it doesn’t (not enough room to write about all of his wrecks). This is his favorite track. (4.1 fppk)

7. Kyle Busch ($10,500) – They are not where they want to be in terms of consistent speed at 1.5 mile tracks. This is their last chance to find the speed they had earlier this season. Last year, Rowdy won the Homestead race and ran the second most fast laps. (5.0 fppk)

8. Brad Keselowski ($9,500) – Homestead is funky. NASCAR only journeys to South Beach once a season, so the teams are never really sure with their setup. In the last 3 Homestead races, BK has finished 3rd, 3rd, and 6th, but he’s only dominated once (3rd most points in 2015). (4.5 fppk)

9. Matt Kenseth ($9,300) – A few unfortunate races ruined the beginning of his season and it came back home at the end. Kenseth has been the most consistent intermediate track driver this year. Unfortunately, this looks like a race that will be dominated by a possible champion. (4.3 fppk)

10. Kurt Busch ($8,400) – With 21 top 10s this season, he set a career best. Sounds good, but it’s not good enough. Kevin Harvick has 26 and he’s racing for nothing this weekend, as well. (3.9 fppk)


RANKDRIVERSALARY
11Denny Hamlin$8,600
12Chase Elliott$9,000
13Ryan Newman$7,800
14Alex Bowman$7,400
15Chris Buescher$6,300

11. Denny Hamlin ($8,600) – It’s hard to get excited about Hamlin, but his price helps. Hamlin has 7 top 10 finishes in his last 10 Homestead races. Why is he so cheap? Hamlin has scored more than 10 laps led points just once this season. (3.9 fppk)

12. Chase Elliott ($9,000) – The Hendrick cars started the playoffs with the most speed. At Kansas and Texas, that speed vanished. In the Homestead testing sessions in October, Elliott posted the 2nd fastest time in session #1 and was the fastest in session #2. (4.1 fppk)

13. Ryan Newman ($7,800) – At intermediate tracks, Newman is averaging a 12th place finish this season (10th best). Newman has scored 38 points or more in 7 of the 11 intermediate track races. (3.9 fppk)

14. Alex Bowman ($7,400) – Who would have thought that Alex Bowman would dominate the Phoenix race? I did mention in last week’s rankings that the 88 car has been the second best car at Phoenix in recent years. Still, no one saw that coming. Don’t count him out this week. His car is fast. (3.9 fppk)

15. Chris Buescher ($6,300) – Last year’s Xfinity champion has scored 30 or more fantasy points in 4 of the last 5 intermediate track races. In those 4 races, his worst finish is 21st. In the 2015 Homestead Xfinity race, Buescher finished 5th behind 4 Sprint Cup drivers. (3.3 fppk)


RANKDRIVERSALARY
16Kasey Kahne$8,200
17Ryan Blaney$7,700
18Ty Dillon$6,600
19Austin Dillon$7,900
20Jamie McMurray$8,000

16. Kasey Kahne ($8,200) – Who has the second longest top 10 streak at intermediate tracks? Obviously it’s Kahne, this is his blurb. Next question, will his streak extend to 6 straight top 10s? At Homestead, Kahne has 4 top 10s in 12 Homestead races. (4.1 fppk)

17. Ryan Blaney ($7,700) – The rookie has been up and down at intermediate tracks this year. It’s understandable, but you have to love his upside. In the Homestead testing session, Blaney was the 3rd fastest in session #1. (3.4 fppk)

18. Ty Dillon ($6,600) – He will not be in 14 car, but the 95 car is not that bad. It’s allied with RCR (hence Ty jumps into this car once in awhile). McDowell has wheeled this car to 3 straight top 25 finishes at intermediate tracks. Ty can close the season with a top 20. (4.2 fppk)

19. Austin Dillon ($7,900) – With wrecks in the last two races, Austin Dillon could go overlooked. If you’re up for it, this could be the winning GPP play. In the last two intermediate track races, Dillon’s average running position is inside the top 10. Dillon posted the 5th fastest time in the second Homestead testing session. (3.6 fppk)

20. Jamie McMurray ($8,000) – You know what you get with Jamie Mac. He’s typically a 10th to 20th place driver. At his typical price in the $7,000 range, he’s an okay place differential play. Now, at $8,000, he really needs to flub qualifying. (3.8 fppk)

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.