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Rankings below are based on a mixture of expected output and DraftKings’ NASCAR salaries for that day. The ordering is not based on highest projected fantasy totals, but rather by value of each driver.

(fppk = average fantasy points per $1,000 of salary. The typical median fppk for a 2016 race was in the 3s. Plate tracks tend to be lower and short tracks tend to run higher due to the amount of laps.)

RankDriverSalary
1Martin Truex, Jr.$10,000
2Kyle Larson$10,200
3Kevin Harvick$9,900
4Clint Bowyer$6,800
5Brad Keselowski$9,700


1. Martin Truex, Jr. ($10,000) – Michigan might as well be another intermediate track. Truex has been the best fantasy NASCAR driver in 2017, and at the intermediate tracks, no one is in his universe. Don’t worry about last fall’s Michigan result, a pit crew mistake ruined his day. (6.8 fppk)

2. Kyle Larson ($10,200) – Michigan and Auto Club Speedway (Fontana) are similar, two-mile long race tracks. Kyle Larson has won the last two races at these tracks. You know his 2017 stats. (6.3 fppk)

3. Kevin Harvick ($9,900) – In the last eight Michigan races, Harvick has seven top-five finishes. Over than span, he has zero wins, but wins are overrated in fantasy NASCAR. Kevin Harvick is a cash game lock for me. (4.5 fppk)

4. Clint Bowyer ($6,800) – Nothing has changed. Bowyer can run around fifth to 15th if he avoids trouble. Before “The Lost Years” (his final season at MWR and a season with HScott Motorsports), Bowyer had a streak of nine straight top-10 finishes at Michigan. (4.0 fppk)

5. Brad Keselowski ($9,700) – This is Brad’s home track, but he’s never won here. It makes sense; this is not a strategy track, and that’s the strength of the #2 team. This is a flat out speed and track position race. BK has the speed, but his magical strategy powers are of no use here. (4.7 fppk)


RankDriverSalary
6Chase Elliott$9,400
7Dale Earnhardt, Jr.$7,800
8Joey Logano$9,200
9Jimmie Johnson$9,800
10Denny Hamlin$8,600


6. Chase Elliott ($9,400) – This is a Chase Elliott track. He finished second in both of the Michigan races last season. He would have two wins if it wasn’t for poor restarts. He has looked fine on restarts this season. (4.0 fppk)

7. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. ($7,800) – Let’s be honest. Junior can wreck every week, and he’ll still have a spot inside the top-20. The potential is always there. Before his wreck in last spring’s Michigan race, Earnhardt, Jr. recorded four straight top-10 finishes at Michigan. (2.2 fppk)

8. Joey Logano ($9,200) – Last year, Logano started on the pole and went on to win the spring race. He started on the pole in the fall and faded. This season, he’s fading. Michigan is a speed race, and Logano has not displayed elite speed since he was busted for cheating at Richmond. (3.8 fppk)

9. Jimmie Johnson ($9,800) – In 2014, Johnson earned his only victory at Michigan. It’s a rarity, but his track history at Michigan is less than spectacular (12 top-10s in 30 races). (4.8 fppk)

10. Denny Hamlin ($8,600) – Typically, Hamlin is only in play at the short tracks. He has shown some life at the intermediate tracks this season. In the last two 1.5-mile races, his average running position is inside the top-10. (3.5 fppk)


RankDriverSalary
11Matt Kenseth$8,900
12Kyle Busch$9,500
13Paul Menard$6,500
14Ryan Blaney$8,700
15Ryan Newman$7,200


11. Matt Kenseth ($8,900) – At the intermediate tracks this season, Kenseth has led zero laps. He’s finished 16th or better in five of those six races. His worst finish was 36th at Fontana, a track similar to Michigan. (3.0 fppk)

12. Kyle Busch ($9,500) – It would be unheard of to remove Kyle Busch form the daily fantasy NASCAR rankings. He’s won the pole two weeks in a row, but he has one top-10 in his last 10 Michigan races (average finish of 27th). (5.2 fppk)

13. Paul Menard ($6,500) – Why is Paul Menard in the rankings? He’s good at Michigan. Don’t ask why. Menard can’t even answer that question. The fact is that Menard has a top-10 DFS score in five of the last six Michigan races. (3.1 fppk)

14. Ryan Blaney ($8,700) – Last week, Blaney received the shortest blurb of the year, and he won. He’s exceptional at the long tracks (Michigan, Fontana and Pocono). (3.1 fppk)

15. Ryan Newman ($7,200) – His 14th-place finish at Pocono was his eighth top-15 in the 12 non-plate races this year. Newman has struggled at the intermediate tracks, and Michigan is just a big intermediate track. (3.5 fppk)


RankDriverSalary
16Jamie McMurray$8,200
17Danica Patrick$6,200
18Erik Jones$8,000
19Austin Dillon$7,600
20Kurt Busch$8,500

16. Jamie McMurray ($8,200) – It all depends on Jamie Mac’s starting position. The #1 car is fast, and McMurray looks comfortable. Will he lead laps? It’s not likely. McMurray is limited to finishing position and place differential points. (3.6 fppk)

17. Danica Patrick ($6,200) – Michigan is not Danica’s best track, but she hangs around (in eight races, her worst finish is 25th). That’s what she did at Dover and Pocono. The car is fast enough. Look for Danica to hang around the edge of the lead lap, and try to slide up late in the race. (2.8 fppk)

18. Erik Jones ($8,000) – At Pocono, Jones finished third. That’s his second top-10 in his last three races. It appears he’s returned to his early season form. Michigan is Jones’ hometown track. (3.6 fppk)

19. Austin Dillon ($7,600) – Michigan is a lap-turner. Sorry, Michigan. This is good news for Austin Dillon. The #3 car can hang around the top-15, and grab some spots at the end via strategy. (3.7 fppk)

20. Kurt Busch ($8,500) – The manufacturer switch gremlins have disappeared. Kurt got loose at Dover and wrecked, but other than that, he seems to have reestablished himself as a top-10 driver. At Michigan last season, he earned a very Kurt Busch-like 10th- and 12th-place finish. (2.8 fppk)

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.