Rankings below are based on a mixture of expected output and DraftKings’ NASCAR salaries for that day. The ordering is not based on highest projected fantasy totals, but rather by value of each driver.

(fppk = average fantasy points per $1,000 of salary. The typical median fppk for a 2016 race was in the 3s. Plate tracks tend to be lower and short tracks tend to run higher due to the amount of laps.)

RankDriverSalary
1Kyle Busch$10,600
2Kevin Harvick$10,700
3Kurt Busch$8,600
4Carl Edwards$10,000
5Matt Kenseth$9,900

1. Kyle Busch ($10,600) – Darlington is a good Kyle Busch track, but it didn’t work out last week. Richmond is a great Kyle Busch track. He was one turn from winning the spring race and his 68% top 5 finish rate at Richmond is ridiculous. (5.0 fppk)

2. Kevin Harvick ($10,700) – Imagine Lebron James never had a bad DFS game. At 50 fantasy points per night, you would pick him every time. That’s Harvick over the last two years. He’s averaged the most fantasy points per race in 2015 and 2016. (6.5 fppk)

3. Kurt Busch ($8,600) – Someone at DraftKings entered a coupon code for Kurt Busch. Since turning his career around with Furniture Row, Kurt has 4 top 10s, a 15th, and a 23rd place finish at Richmond. Kurt has 4 top 10s at short tracks this season. (3.9 fppk)

4. Carl Edwards ($10,000) – Over the last six Richmond races, Carl has two wins. Only Kevin Harvick has been better at short tracks this season. The dig against Carl is that he’s only topped 50 points twice in the last 10 races (51 pts at Sonoma and 50 pts. at Bristol). (4.6 fppk)

5. Matt Kenseth ($9,900) – Last fall, Kenseth ran away with this race (352 laps led). That’s not an aberration, he has finished inside the top 10 in 7 of the last 8 Richmond races. Outside of two Bristol wrecks, Kenseth has been a top 10 driver at every short track this season. (3.9 fppk)

RankDriverSalary
6Joey Lagano$9,700
7Brad Keselowski$10,300
8Kyle Larson$9,000
9Martin Truex Jr $9,300
10Jimmie Johnson$9,200

6. Joey Logano ($9,700) – Quietly, Logano is heating up. He has 4 consecutive top 10s and 11 in the last 13 races. All eyes are not on Logano because the June Michigan race has been his only big fantasy performance. Since joining Penske, Logano has 6 top 10s in 7 Richmond races. (3.8 fppk)

7. Brad Keselowski ($10,300) – From 2013-2014, Brad Keselowski was a beast in three races at Richmond. In the last three he’s been a top 5 car, but was lacking that little extra speed. His 2016 short track program hasn’t been anything special. (4.8 fppk)

8. Kyle Larson ($9,000) – Everyone expected Larson to be a star immediately, but it didn’t happen. Now, it’s happening. Larson has finished inside the top 5 in the last two races. In the last 6 Richmond races, Larson’s worst finish is 16th. (4.2 fppk)

9. Martin Truex, Jr. ($9,300) – This car is fast, but it’s at its best at intermediate tracks. Truex led 123 laps in the previous short, flat track race at New Hampshire, but that short track isn’t very similar to Richmond. Truex has never led more than 22 laps at Richmond. (5.3 fppk)

10. Jimmie Johnson ($9,200) – How many times will Jimmie burn me? Everytime I say never again, but everytime, he seems like a sneaky low ownership GPP play. The 48 has been a top 10 car at every short track race, but he got caught in wrecks at Bristol and Dover just like everyone else. (3.4 fppk)

RankDriverSalary
11Denny Hamlin$9,500
12Jamie McMurray$7,500
13Kasey Kahne$7,600
14Ricky Stenhouse Jr$6,400
15Chase Elliott$8,400

11. Denny Hamlin ($9,500) – A hot driver returns to his home track. Hamlin has led the most laps at Richmond and has the 2nd best top 5 percentage. Hamlin has 4 top 10s in 6 short track races this season, and the two poor finishes were bad luck wrecks. (3.5 fppk)

12. Jamie McMurray ($7,500) – Richmond is a microcosm for Jamie Mac’s 2016 season. In the last 10 Richmond races, McMurray has 7 top 15s, a 16th, a 22nd, and a 26th place finish. (4.2 fppk)

13. Kasey Kahne ($7,600) – It’s highly unlikely that Kahne wins at Richmond and earn a playoff spot. Kahne’s status as a DFS favorite probably doesn’t offer much solace, but at least we can be happy. At Darlington, Kahne scored over 25 points for the 19th time this season. (3.6 fppk)

14. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. ($6,400) – Finishing position does not tell the whole story. Stenhouse ran around the top 10 for the first half of the race. A vibration developed, and after a green flag pit stop on a short track that was all she wrote. Stenhouse has been a top 15 driver in the last three short track races. (3.5 fppk)

15. Chase Elliott ($8,400) – The inevitable rookie of the year has returned to form. Elliott has averaged 45 fantasy points over the last 4 races. Richmond is one of the few Sprint Cup races where Elliot gained experience in 2015 (15th place finish). He improved in the Spring 2016 race and finished 12th. (3.9 fppk)

RankDriverSalary
16Danica Patrick$6,300
17Ryan Blaney$7,200
18Jeff Gordon$8,800
19Ryan Newman$8,000
20Tony Stewart$8,200

16. Danica Patrick ($6,300) – Phoenix, Martinsville, Richmond and New Hampshire are different, but they’re all short, flat tracks. Danica has top 20s at each track this season except Richmond. That was a day race. She has top 20s in the last two fall night races at Richmond. (3.5 fppk)

17. Ryan Blaney ($7,200) – In the last 5 races, Blaney has 4 top 20s. As far as rookie seasons go, an average finish of 18th is pretty good. It matches Austin Dillon’s rookie season. Blaney had a decent car in the spring Richmond race, but the cautions came at inopportune times. (3.4 fppk)

18. Jeff Gordon ($8,800) – This is one of Jeff Gordon’s best tracks. His last 5 races at Richmond were top 10 finishes. He’s led 40 laps or more 14 times at this short track. In his only short track race this season, he finished 11th at Bristol. (4.0 fppk)

19. Ryan Newman ($8,000) – The price tag is steep for Newman, but it can be rationalized. Newman needs to win to make the playoffs and he’s willing to do anything it takes. Last week he finished 8th while running an illegal setup. Penalties don’t matter in DFS. It’s likely that Newman will gamble and run a juiced up car again this week. (3.8 fppk)

20. Tony Stewart ($8,200) – It may not be this week. It may not be next week, but Tony’s got one coming. He intentionally wrecked Brian Scott, and there will be revenge. Be careful rostering Stewart. He finished 2nd at New Hampshire. (3.3 fppk)

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.