Rankings below are based on a mixture of expected output and DraftKings’ NASCAR salaries for that day. The ordering is not based on highest projected fantasy totals, but rather by value of each driver.

(fppk = average fantasy points per $1,000 of salary. The typical median fppk for a 2016 race was in the 3s. Plate tracks tend to be lower and short tracks tend to run higher due to the amount of laps.)

RankDriverSalary
1Kyle Busch$10,400
2Kevin Harvick$10,500
3Matt Kenseth$9,600
4Joey Logano$10,100
5Carl Edwards$9,900

1. Kyle Busch ($10,400) – Track history doesn’t mean much this week. The truth is, current form has been the superior statistic this season. Rowdy swept Indy last season, but more importantly he’s been fast in 2016 low downforce package. Busch put 90 points on the board last week (9th time he’s topped 60 points). (4.7 fppk)

2. Kevin Harvick ($10,500) – It’s not that much to think about. If you want to win a Fantasy NASCAR GPP, then you need the 3 of the top 5 scores in your lineup. With 68 fantasy points per race, Harvick is as close to a sure thing that you can get. (6.5 fppk)

3. Matt Kenseth ($9,600) – Look at Kenseth’s last 10 races. His worst races were at volatile plate tracks, so throw those out and he’s averaging 56 points per race over the last 3 months. Kenseth has a streak of 3 top 10s at Indy with JGR. (3.7 fppk)

4. Joey Logano ($10,100) – Kentucky was a wreck-fest and Logano’s number came up. Other than that, Logano has been a top 5 driver week in, week out. Like Kenseth, when Logano switched teams in 2013, he’s been a top 10 finisher at Indy every season. (3.7 fppk)

5. Carl Edwards ($9,900) – Normally, the 19 car is one of the best qualifiers in NASCAR (tied for 2nd best average starting spot). Last week he missed the final round by .001 seconds. His car may have been one of the fastest in the field, but track position means everything. If Edwards can start in the front three rows, he’ll be a threat to dominate. (5.4 fppk)

RankDriverSalary
6Martin Truex, Jr.$10,300
7Kyle Larson$8,600
8Jimmie Johnson$9,700
9Tony Stewart$8,400
10Kurt Busch$9,400

6. Martin Truex, Jr. ($10,300) – Indy has not historically been one of Truex’s best tracks, but that hasn’t really mattered. Over the last two years, Truex has become a new driver (4th place finish at Indy last year). The Furniture Row team runs up front at all tracks. New Hampshire has not been a friend of Martin Truex, but he was the second best driver last week. (5.8 fppk)

7. Kyle Larson ($8,600) – You wouldn’t think that the dirt track wonderkid would be right at home at a flat, 2.5 mile speedway, but he is. Larson races well at Pocono and he does the same at Indy. In his two Indy races, he has two top 10s and a driver rating of 103.6. (3.8 fppk)

8. Jimmie Johnson ($9,700) – Track history doesn’t matter, but Johnson has 4 wins at Indy. Every track has treated Jimmie Johnson fairly until this year. The 48 Lowe’s team could figure it out any week now, but so far, they’ve swung and missed. Johnson had the pole at New Hampshire and turned that into a measly 22 fantasy points. (3.7 fppk)

9. Tony Stewart ($8,400) – It may be smoke and mirrors, but Tony’s getting it done. He’s topped 50 fantasy points in 3 of the last 4 races. The one race he didn’t score big was Daytona, and he was running inside the top 10 with just a handful of laps left. He won’t dominate, but don’t be surprised to see him magically appear inside the top 5 at the end. (3.5 fppk)

10. Kurt Busch ($9,400) – The M.O. for Kurt has been top 10s with regularity, but never a threat to dominate. In two of the last three races, Kurt has finished in the 20s. Before you write Kurt off this week, he won the Pocono race this season (closest comparison to Indy). (4.7 fppk)

RankDriverSalary
11Jeff Gordon$8,800
12Chase Elliott$9,200
13Denny Hamlin$9,000
14Ryan Newman$7,900
15Kasey Kahne$7,700

11. Jeff Gordon ($8,800) – If Gordon is competitive in practice, then forget about the retirement concerns. Gordon has 5 Indy wins; the last coming as recent as 2014. (0 fppk)

12. Chase Elliott ($9,200) – Indianapolis was one of the few Sprint Cup races where Chase competed last season (finished 18th). Pocono is the closest comparison to Indy, and Elliott scored the most fantasy points at Pocono in June. (4.1 fppk)

13. Denny Hamlin ($9,000) – In the last two Indy races, Hamlin has top 5 finishes in both races (3 top 10s in the last 4). Should we follow track history that much? Maybe not, but the price is key here. The top tier drivers from $8,000 to $9,000 range may be the best way to load up a lineup this week. (2.8 fppk)

14. Ryan Newman ($7,900) – I’m afraid the secret is out of the bag. No one ever notices Newman, but after last week, the fantasy universe turns up the DFS heat. Over his last 9 races, Newman’s worst finish is 18th (average finish of 10th). Over the last 10 Indy races, Newman has 8 top 15s (9 inside the top 20). (4.1 fppk)

15. Kasey Kahne ($7,700) – New Hampshire was not a good fantasy day, but Kahne ran well (average position of 12th). In the 10 races before that, Kahne scored more than 30 fantasy points 8 times. (3.4 fppk)

RankDriverSalary
16Brad Keselowski$9,800
17Jamie McMurray$7,400
18Ryan Blaney$7,500
19Greg Biffle$7,300
20Paul Menard$7,000

16. Brad Keselowski ($9,800) – Last week, Brad was hot and was racing at one of his best tracks. It didn’t work out. He was never close to dominating and he finished 15th. At Indianapolis, he’s never finished better than 9th, but he’s had a top 5 fantasy score in the 2 of the last 4 races. (5.1 fppk)

17. Jamie McMurray ($7,400) – Newman and Jamie Mac are very similar fantasy NASCAR drivers. Their purpose is to finish around the top 10 and score place differential points. Both have been achieving their objective lately. Newman has been more consistent this season, but Jamie Mac is cheaper. (3.9 fppk)

18. Ryan Blaney ($7,500) – In last year’s Xfinity race at Indianapolis, Blaney was one lap away from beating Kyle Busch. It was in the bag; he had it. Lap traffic blocked Blaney and he lost. The good news is that Blaney understands this track. (3.5 fppk)

19. Greg Biffle ($7,300) – The last 3 Indy races have not been kind to Biffle. If you jump back to the five race before 2013, The Bif scored 5 consecutive top 10s from 2007 to 2012. He’s coming into Indy riding a 3 race top 10 streak. (3.3 fppk)

20. Paul Menard ($7,000) – When you start digging down this low, current form success vanishes. Track history does not. Menard won the 2011 Indy race, and he has 6 top 20s in 9 races at his home track. (3.1 fppk)

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.