Rankings below are based on a mixture of expected output and DraftKings’ NASCAR salaries for that day. The ordering is not based on highest projected fantasy totals, but rather by value of each driver.

(fppk = average fantasy points per $1,000 of salary. The typical median fppk for a 2016 race was in the 3s. Plate tracks tend to be lower and short tracks tend to run higher due to the amount of laps.)

RankDriverSalary
1Martin Truex Jr$10,900
2Kevin Harvick$10,700
3Kyle Busch$10,200
4Matt Kenseth$9,700
5Brad Keselowski$9,800

1. Kevin Harvick ($10,900) – It’s strange to see Harvick steal a race at the end. Normally, he’s the one getting a win taken from him. He dominated Dover last year, so I expect Harvick to dominate this race, but finish second. (6.3 fppk)

2. Martin Truex, Jr. ($10,500) – Sure enough, Truex went to new Hampshire and dominated. I’ve lost track of how many races in a row he’s had at top 5 DFS score. Soon, fast laps will be referred to as Truex laps. (5.9 fppk)

3. Matt Kenseth ($9,700) – Harvick is this season’s short track wizard, but Kenseth is not far behind. Kenseth won the spring Dover race, and nearly won last week’s short track race (most fantasy points). (3.9 fppk)

4. Kyle Busch ($10,300) – This is car isn’t close; it’s there. If not for starting position, we would be talking about Rowdy returning to form last week at New Hampshire. The 18 car turned 39 fast laps. Now for the bad news: Busch has finished 30th or worse in 3 of the last 5 Dover races. (5.0 fppk)

5. Brad Keselowski ($9,100) – The 2 team has mathematically advanced to the second round. It was major priority to finish well at New Hampshire. Why? The team is not happy with the car at Dover. The results say another thing. BK is averaging 57 points over the last 5 Dover races. (4.9 fppk)


RankDriverSalary
6Denny Hamlin$9,500
7Kurt Busch$8,600
8Joey Lagano$9,400
9Jimmie Johnson$9,300
10Carl Edwards$10,100

6. Denny Hamlin ($9,500) – The top 10 streak ended at 9. I guess he’ll have to start another one. In the spring, Hamlin finished 7th at Dover, but this is not his best short track. (3.8 fppk)

7. Kurt Busch ($8,600) – Let’s cover the Kurt Busch basics. He was a safe top 10 guy early in the season, but not so much anymore. He doesn’t score top tier points. He’s got to qualify in the teens to be in play for me. (3.9 fppk)

8. Joey Logano ($9,400) – Is he going to turn it on or what? Over the last couple months, Logano has steadily piled up the top 10s. He finished 11th or better in 7 of the 9 short track races. That’s great, but we want fantasy points, and his best short track race was a 49 point effort. (3.8 fppk)

9. Jimmie Johnson ($9,300) – The King of Dover cannot be ignored. Jimmie has hurt some DFS lineups this season, but 10 wins at a track trumps current form in my opinion. (3.6 fppk)

10. Carl Edwards ($10,100) – The spring race featured a 15-20 car wreck and Edwards got swallowed up. Even after that, he finished with an average running position of 6th (also, 44 fast laps). The problem is that Carl has not had the car to beat. That belongs to his teammate, Matt Kenseth. (4.3 fppk)


RankDriverSalary
11Kyle Larson$9,900
12Jamie McMurray$7,800
13Kasey Kahne$7,600
14Danica Patrick$6,100
15Aric Almirola$6,300

11. Kyle Larson ($9,900) – Gasp! Larson is almost a $10,000 daily fantasy NASCAR driver. The newly crowned superstar almost won the spring Dover race (103 fantasy points). He’s sitting on the final transfer spot to the round of 12. He needs a top 10, but a win is not out of the question. (4.2 fppk)

12. Jamie McMurray ($7,800) – When was the last time Jamie Mac was aggressive? Last year at Dover. He failed to advance to the round of 12, but he finished 4th in that race. He’s back on the bubble again, so he needs a top 5 or a win. This seems like a GPP only pick to me. (4.1 fppk)

13. Kasey Kahne ($7,600) – The hole Kahne dug by opening the season with 4 finishes outside of the top 20 in the first 6 races was too much. He’s racing for pride and fantasy NASCAR points. Kahne is on a 4 race top 10 streak and has scored over 25 fantasy points 22 times this season. (3.9 fppk)

14. Danica Patrick (6,100) – Copy and paste last week’s write up because the plan is the same. She should hang around 20th all race. This will keep her on the lead lap. If she avoids a wreck, I think she’ll turn out to be a good tournament pick, just like at New Hampshire. (4.2 fppk)

15. Aric Almirola (6,300) – Danica is safe, Almirola has more upside. They both pair well in lineups, but if you’re only going with one, then Almirola is the guy that can sneak out of Delaware with a top 10. (3.2 fppk)

16. Ryan Blaney ($8,000) – In the last 10 races, Blaney has three races of negative 10 fantasy points or worse. Also over that span, Blaney has 7 races with 25 points or more (an average of 41 points in the good races). (3.5 fppk)


RankDriverSalary
16Ryan Blaney $8,000
17Jeff Gordon$8,400
18Chase Elliott$8,900
19Ryan Newman$7,300
20Austin Dillon$7,900

17. Jeff Gordon ($8,400) – The $8,000 range seems like no man’s land. In GPPs, we usually target three $9,000 and up drivers. Gordon doesn’t fit. In cash games, he’s safe in my opinion. At short tracks this season, he’s finished 11th (Bristol, a comparable track) and 16th. (3.5 fppk)

18. Chase Elliott (8,900) – In the spring race, Elliott ran the 6th most laps inside the top 15 and finished 3rd. Last week at New Hampshire, Elliott’s average running position was 5th. The problem that plagues Elliott, and that plagued the 24 car for years, is restarting. (4.1 fppk)

19. Ryan Newman ($7,300) – This is not his best track (average finish of 20th over the last 10 at Dover). Newman’s been relatively cold of late (average finish of 10th over the last 10 races). If he flubs qualifying, which he rarely does, than I think he’s in play. (3.6 fppk)

20. Austin Dillon ($7,900) – This weekend, a lot of things must go right. Dillon needs a top 10 and he needs a playoff driver or two to wreck. As if things couldn’t get worse, Dillon’s average finish at Dover is 26th. Expect some major aggressive driving from the #3 team. (3.9 fppk)

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.