WATCH: PRICE CHECK


Rankings below are based on a mixture of expected output and DraftKings’ NASCAR salaries for that day. The ordering is not based on highest projected fantasy totals, but rather by value of each driver.

(fppk = average fantasy points per $1,000 of salary. The typical median fppk for a 2016 race was in the 3s. Plate tracks tend to be lower and short tracks tend to run higher due to the amount of laps.)

RankDriverSalary
1Martin Truex, Jr.$10,300
2Kyle Larson$9,900
3Brad Keselowski$10,100
4Kevin Harvick$9,600
5Dale Earnhardt, Jr.$8,500

1. Martin Truex, Jr. ($10,300) – The 78 team has unloaded some fast cars at Pocono, but they have nothing to show for it due to factors they couldn’t control. In 2015, Truex put the Furniture Row team on the map with a win at Pocono. (7.0 fppk)

2. Kyle Larson ($9,900) – Is it too early for the Dale Earnhardt, Jr. fans to switch their loyalty to Larson? The young veteran has grown at each track in his first four seasons, but he’s been good at Pocono since day one. (6.4 fppk)

3. Brad Keselowski ($10,100) – Two weeks in a row, Brad Keselowski was in the wrong place at the wrong time. It can’t happen three weeks in a row, right? BK has finished third or better in each of the last three Pocono races. (4.7 fppk)

4. Kevin Harvick ($9,600) – It’s not 2015 anymore. Harvick is just a smidge slower than the elite tier, but if you give Larson and Truex a smidge, then they’re going to run away from you. Harvick has three top-fives, a ninth-place finish and a mechanical failure in the last five Pocono Races. (4.4 fppk)

5. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. ($8,500) – There are several tracks throughout the circuit where Dale Earnhardt, Jr. shines. Pocono is one of those tracks. In 2014, he swept the Pocono races. He has a top-five finish in six of his last seven Pocono races. (2.4 fppk)


RankDriverSalary
6Chase Elliott$9,300
7Joey Logano$9,100
8Jimmie Johnson$10,000
9Denny Hamlin$8,900
10Matt Kenseth$9,000

6. Chase Elliott ($9,300) – Just like his fellow young gun drivers, Elliott has been great at the two-mile or longer tracks. Last year, Elliott let a win slip away in the Pocono spring race. He may not finally break into the win column this weekend, but a top-10 seems likely. (3.8 fppk)

7. Joey Logano ($9,100) – The 22 car has been lacking speed ever since it was busted for cheating at Richmond. This is a legitimate concern moving forward, but not so much this weekend. At Pocono, a good enough car can get it done if it makes the right moves. (4.0 fppk)

8. Jimmie Johnson ($10,000) – If you’re waiting for the week where Johnson’s numbers at a track aren’t the best, then keep waiting. He’s led the most laps and has the most top-10s, but he’s second in wins (three). (5.2 fppk)

9. Denny Hamlin ($8,900) – At the intermediate and short tracks, there are plenty of drivers that just don’t have a shot. That’s not the case at Pocono. If you have a good enough car, then you’re in play. It’s been seven years since Hamlin won at Pocono, but he does have four wins at the Tricky Triangle. (3.4 fppk)

10. Matt Kenseth ($9,000) – It hasn’t been a bad season, but, so far, 2017 has been rather unremarkable for Kenseth. He won a fuel mileage race at Pocono in 2015. This could be a week that Kenseth goes overlooked and ends up in Victory Lane. (3.0 fppk)


RankDriverSalary
11Kyle Busch$9,700
12Ryan Newman$7,600
13Clint Bowyer$8,600
14Jamie McMurray$8,100
15Kasey Kahne$7,700

11. Kyle Busch ($9,700) – There isn’t a statistical column in the box score for karma, but if there was, Busch would have the most negative points. Maybe the Dover tire incident was just bad luck. If it was karma, then he should be good to go this week. (5.1 fppk)

12. Ryan Newman ($7,600) – The RCR cars have enough speed to hang around. Pocono is not a race where one cars leads the field all day. The winner either catches a break or creates their own results with strategy. Newman could sneak away with his second win this season. (3.5 fppk)

13. Clint Bowyer ($8,600) – After two seasons of bad cars and bad luck, one unfortunate race shouldn’t faze Bowyer. The 14 car hasn’t had top-five speed in a couple years, but it has top-10 speed and that’s all that is necessary for a win at Pocono. (4.0 fppk)

14. Jamie McMurray ($8,100) – The rules are simple. If McMurray qualifies near 10th, then he’s not in play. If he qualifies around 20th, then the combination of finishing position points and place differential points make him an elite play. He was in the winning GPP lineup last week. (4.1 fppk)

15. Kasey Kahne ($7,700) – Rumors are swirling that Kahne’s days at Hendrick are over. Top-15 finishes will not land Kahne a sponsor or a premier ride. Kahne is going to have to start taking chances, and Pocono is a great race track to do so with pit strategy. (4.0 fppk)


RankDriverSalary
16Ryan Blaney$8,400
17Kurt Busch$8,200
18Austin Dillon$7,500
19AJ Allmendinger$6,900
20David Ragan$5,100

16. Ryan Blaney ($8,400) – The sophomore driver has been noticeably better at tracks that require speed and power. Last year at Pocono, Blaney finished 11th and 10th. (3.1 fppk)

17. Kurt Busch ($8,200) – Last week was just another all-too-common Kurt Busch DNF. Based on current form, he shouldn’t be in the top-20. However, Kurt won the spring Pocono race, and nothing has changed since then except for a spell of tough breaks. (2.6 fppk)

18. Austin Dillon ($7,500) – In six Pocono races, Dillon has five top-20 finishes. If he qualifies upfront, he’s an easy fade, but if he qualifies in the teens, where he started both races last year, he can steal a few spots at the end by hanging around. (3.7 fppk)

19. AJ Allmendinger ($6,900) – Value drivers that score big at Pocono will hang around for most of the race. Either through pit strategy or a good restart, these drivers sneak away with a top-10 finish. In the last six Pocono races, Allmendinger’s average running position is 19th. (3.9 fppk)

20. David Ragan ($5,100) – The top-25 streak ended last week, but Ragan was fine until he wrecked on lap 398 of 400. Front Row Motorsports has always been competitive at Pocono – they won here last fall. In Ragan’s last two races at Pocono with Front Row, he earned two top-20s. (4.5 fppk)

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.