WATCH: PRICE CHECK AAA 400 DRIVE FOR AUTISM


Rankings below are based on a mixture of expected output and DraftKings’ NASCAR salaries for that day. The ordering is not based on highest projected fantasy totals, but rather by value of each driver.

(fppk = average fantasy points per $1,000 of salary. The typical median fppk for a 2016 race was in the 3s. Plate tracks tend to be lower and short tracks tend to run higher due to the amount of laps.)

RankDriverSalary
1Martin Truex, Jr.$9,900
2Joey Logano$9,200
3Kevin Harvick$10,100
4Jimmie Johnson$10,600
5Kyle Larson$10,300

1. Martin Truex, Jr. ($9,900) – The initial thought is that this isn’t an intermediate track, so Truex is human again. That’s wrong. He’s not human at Dover, either. In the last six Dover races, he has scored 135, 71, 34, 95, 58 and 51 fantasy points. This is his home track. (6.8 fppk)

2. Joey Logano ($9,200) – Look at the numbers. Logano has been the best short track driver this season. He led 80 laps at Phoenix before a penalty and a wreck took him out. Other than that, he has finished inside the top-five at Martinsville, Bristol and won at Richmond. (4.1 fppk)

3. Kevin Harvick ($10,100) – A mechanical failure took Harvick out in the Dover fall race. That’s about the only thing that can beat Kevin Harvick at Dover. In the four previous Dover races, Harvick scored 72, 216, 100 and 107 fantasy points. (4.3 fppk)

4. Jimmie Johnson ($10,600) – The quickest way to sort out the drivers each week is to review their current form and their track history. Jimmie won at Bristol in April (Bristol is the closest comparable track to Dover), and he has 10 career wins at Dover. (5.0 fppk)

5. Kyle Larson ($10,300) – As is the case at most tracks, Larson is getting better at Dover with each run. This track is a lot like Bristol, and Larson scored the most fantasy points at Bristol. In the spring 2016 Dover race, Larson scored over 100 fantasy points. (5.8 fppk)


RankDriverSalary
6Kyle Busch$10,400
7Brad Keselowski$10,000
8Chase Elliott$9,600
9Denny Hamlin$9,000
10Matt Kenseth$9,500

6. Kyle Busch ($10,400) – Tell me if you’ve heard this story before: Kyle Busch is great at Bristol, but he wrecked and blamed the tires. If you can stomach the possibility of rogue tires ruining your fantasy NASCAR lineup, then Kyle is a great option to lead laps. (5.2 fppk)

7. Brad Keselowski ($10,000) – In the last six Dover races, Keselowski is averaging 55 fantasy points. At the flat, short tracks (not terribly similar to Dover, but they’re still short tracks), Keselowski has finished with a top-10 DFS score in all three races (ninth, second and first). (5.3 fppk)

8. Chase Elliott ($9,600) – In his rookie season at Dover, Elliott scored over 50 fantasy points in both races. He’s had terrible luck of late, but that will pass. The car looks good. The driver looks good. (3.6 fppk)

9. Denny Hamlin ($9,000) – Short tracks are Hamlin’s wheelhouse. Other than a late-race wreck at Martinsville, Hamlin has been solid at the short tracks this season (three top-10 finishes). He earned two top-10s at Dover last year. (3.3 fppk)

10. Matt Kenseth ($9,500)JGR is back on top. They have yet to win, but they’re right there. Kenseth’s average running position at Charlotte was fourth. At the last short track race (Richmond), Kenseth led 154 laps. (3.0 fppk)


RankDriverSalary
11Ryan Newman$7,200
12Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.$7,600
13Austin Dillon$7,400
14Clint Bowyer$8,800
15Jamie McMurray$8,200

11. Ryan Newman ($7,200) – His Dover track history is about what you would expect. This season at the short tracks, Newman has been slightly better than what we expect. He stole a win at Phoenix, finished with at top-10 at Martinsville and Richmond, and was 14th at Bristol. (3.2 fppk)

12. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. ($7,600) – Dover is similar to Bristol, and that’s one of Stenhouse’s best tracks. It should not be a surprise that Stenhouse has a top-15 finish in the last three Dover races. Better yet, Stenhouse has a top-10 fantasy score in all four short track races this season. (4.8 fppk)

13. Austin Dillon ($7,400) – If you’re expecting a winning streak or Dillon’s season to miraculously turn around because of a fuel mileage win, then you’re mistaken. Dillon is in play because he’s cheap and he can sneak away with a top-10, just like he did at Martinsville. (3.0 fppk)

14. Clint Bowyer ($8,800) – Fantasy NASCAR players don’t talk about Bowyer because he doesn’t lead laps. The media doesn’t talk about Bowyer because he’s not out front. The biggest secret in NASCAR is that Clint Bowyer has the fourth-best average finish (12th). (4.3 fppk)

15. Jamie McMurray ($8,200) – There are drivers that hog the fast laps and laps led points. There are drivers that score double-digit place differential points. McMurray is neither. Despite earning seven top-10s this season, he’s very tough to roster in daily fantasy NASCAR at his price. (3.9 fppk)


RankDriverSalary
16Dale Earnhardt, Jr.$7,800
17Kasey Kahne$7,700
18Ryan Blaney$8,700
19David Ragan$5,100
20Regan Smith$6,100

16. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. ($7,800) – Kurt Busch got booted from the top-20 this week. Junior, take notice. At Dover, Earnhardt, Jr.’s average running position has been 11th or better in four of his last five races. This season, he’s wrecked in the last three short track races. (2.2 fppk)

17. Kasey Kahne ($7,700) – The 2015 season was a wash for Kasey Kahne, but that wasn’t the case at Dover (finished sixth and fourth). Last year, Kahne finished 12th and fourth at Dover. He hasn’t finished well at the short tracks, but he has a top-15 average running position in three of the four races. (3.9 fppk)

18. Ryan Blaney ($8,700) – It’s possible that Ryan Blaney is getting too much credit. At the intermediate tracks, he’s looked great, but who wouldn’t in a Penske car? At the short tracks, he’s been average at best with an average finish of 29th. (3.4 fppk)

19. David Ragan ($5,100) – The price tag is wrong again, in my opinion. Ragan has eight top-25 finishes this season, and he comes into Dover with four straight. During that streak, he’s finished with a top-20 fantasy score in each race (19th, 10th, 17th and 23rd). (4.6 fppk)

20. Regan Smith ($6,100) – Don’t even look at his 2016 Dover stats. That was in an inferior Tommy Baldwin Racing car. This week, he’s driving for RPM, and the 43 car has seven top-20s in the last 10 Dover races. Smith won at Dover in the fall 2015 Xfinity race. (4.5 fppk)

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.