Rankings below are based on a mixture of expected output and DraftKings’ NASCAR salaries for that day. The ordering is not based on highest projected fantasy totals, but rather by value of each driver.

(fppk = average fantasy points per $1,000 of salary. The typical median fppk for a 2015 race was in the 3s. Plate tracks tend to be lower and short tracks tend to run higher due to the amount of laps.)

RankDriverSalary
1Kyle Busch$10,500
2Kevin Harvick$10,400
3Jimmie Johnson$10,700
4Brad Keselowski$8,900
5Kurt Busch$9,100

1. Kyle Busch ($10,500) – It’s not just the three wins. Kyle Busch’s presence is felt in every race. Before each race you can’t help but think, “Kyle’s going to win.” If you do not roster him, most times, he makes you pay. (7.0 fppk)

2. Kevin Harvick ($10,400)DFS players are caught between a rock and hard place. You have to roster Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick each week. It’s not any easier this week at Dover. He dominated this race in the fall and finished second in the spring. (7.5 fppk)

3. Jimmie Johnson ($10,700) – If only Dover stats mattered, then Jimmie would be number one. Current form matters, too. Jimmie has not been a dominant force over the last two years. He wins, but not in the way that earned him the nickname “Vader.” (4.9 fppk)

4. Brad Keselowski ($8,900) – This is only the second time ever that BK has been priced below $9,000 (the other was Homestead in 2015). What’s the reason for the drop? He has the 6th best average finish in NASCAR and the 8th most fantasy point per race. Is it Dover? BK has 4 tops 5s including a win over the last 7 races. Looks like a steal to me. (4.4 fppk)

5. Kurt Busch ($9,100) – Three drivers are tied for the most top 10s (9) this season. Harvick and Kyle Busch are obvious, but can you guess the third? This is Kurt Busch’s blurb, so he’s a pretty good guess. It’s Kurt Busch! We haven’t seen a big fantasy race from Kurt, but his floor is 45 points. (5.0 fppk)


RankDriverSalary
6Martin Truex Jr.$9,700
7Carl Edwards$9,900
8Denny Hamlin$8,300
9Dale Earnhardt Jr.$9,400
10Matt Kenseth$10,100

6. Martin Truex Jr. ($9,700) – The number one DFS NASCAR score depends on three things: a great car, a great driver, and a mistake free pit crew. Truex had the first two at Kansas, but not the third. The good news is that pit crew issues are the easiest to fix. (5.5 fppk)

7. Carl Edwards ($9,900) – Dover is not one of Carl’s preferred tracks, but his current form is hard to ignore. He’s almost a lock for a top 10 each week (8) and top 5’s (5) or wins (2) are not out of the question. (6.7 fppk)

8. Denny Hamlin ($8,300) – His price keeps dropping like he’s old meat at the supermarket. Hamlin was running third with 20 laps left at Kansas, when he wrecked after an all-or-nothing move. He’s capable of top 10s, and at his price, finishing position is enough. (2.1 fppk)

9. Dale Earnhardt Jr. ($9,400) – Numerous times this season, the 88 car was missing something in practice. By the time the race rolled around, they had found it. Throw out Junior’s plate race mishaps, and he’s averaging 12.4 place differential points per race. (4.5 fppk)

10. Matt Kenseth ($10,100) – The voodoo spell may have finally run out. Perfect timing. Kenseth is strong at Dover. He has the best top 10% among drivers with 5 or more races. (3.3 fppk)


RankDriverSalary
11Joey Logano$9,600
12Ryan Blaney$7,200
13Chase Elliott$8,700
14Tony Stewart$7,400
15Clint Bowyer$6,400

11. Joey Logano ($9,600) – In the first Rankings column of 2016, I predicted a step backwards for Logano. He excelled in 2015 due to the full throttle Sprint Cup stock car that was similar to the Xfinity cars routinely driven by Logano. The car is different this year, and Logano has yet to win or lead a significant amount of laps. (3.5 fppk)

12. Ryan Blaney ($7,200) – Last fall Blaney looked comfortable at Kansas all weekend and finished inside the top 10. He ran inside the top 10 all night last Saturday, and he finished 5th. Plug him in at the Fall race. (3.6 fppk)

13. Chase Elliott ($8,700) – The similarity between 2015 Jeff Gordon and 2016 Chase Elliott is eerie. Neither compete for wins or lead laps, but they always finish inside the top 10. It’s a tough DFS pick for GPPs, but Elliott is turning into a solid cash game play. (4.0 fppk)

14. Tony Stewart ($7,400) – It appears that the 2016 low downforce package suits Tony. His average running position at Kansas was 15th. At Dover, Stewart is one of the best in the business. He has 17 top 10’s at Dover and his last win was at this short track in 2013. (5.6 fppk)

15. Clint Bowyer ($6,400) – I’ll bite. Bowyer and his team have turned it around. Of late, Bowyer has put together strong performances at short tracks, plate tracks, and intermediate tracks. HScott Motorsports is far from being the worst small team. It’s possible that Bowyer’s struggles were the result of working out the kinks with his new team. (4.2 fppk)


RankDriverSalary
16Ryan Newman$7,300
17Jamie McMurray$7,600
18Kyle Larson$7,900
19Kasey Kahne$8,500
20AJ Allmendinger$6,900

16. Ryan Newman ($7,300) – All we really care about is his qualifying position. That’s not a mistake. Finishing position isn’t a concern. We know what we’ll get with Newman. At Kansas, Newman reached his ceiling with a 7th place finish, but he barely hit 5 times value with 38 points. (3.5 fppk)

17. Jamie McMurray ($7,600) – Who is starting further back in the field: McMurray or Newman? That’s the weekly question that determines who we play. Jamie Mac scored two top 10s at Dover last season, and his Ganassi teammate, Kyle Larson, did the same. (3.9 fppk)

18. Kyle Larson ($7,900) – If you didn’t watch the race, the Kansas finish looks bad. If you watched the race, then you know Larson looked like he might run down Kyle Busch on the outside and win the race. That didn’t happen. He got caught up in another driver’s mistake. (2.5 fppk)

19. Kasey Kahne ($8,500) – The 5 team is doing better- they are not where they want to be, but they’re not where they were. Last season, Kahne raced well at Dover finishing insiding the top 10 in both races. (2.8 fppk)

20. AJ Allmendinger ($6,900) – The band wagon filled up earlier this season, but after AJ struggled at Bristol and Richmond, the wagon broke an axle Oregon Trail style. A.J. is back on track with a top 10 at Kansas. Proceed cautiously, JTG Daugherty Racing has struggled at Dover with an average finish of 25th. (5.2 fppk)