Rankings below are based on a mixture of expected output and DraftKings’ NASCAR salaries for that day. The ordering is not based on highest projected fantasy totals, but rather by value of each driver.
1. Denny Hamlin ($9,800) – Don’t tell DraftKings that Denny Hamlin is the best driver in NASCAR at the moment. Hamlin is still priced below $10,000 even though he’s averaging a 3rd place finish over his last 6 races (68 fppg).
2. Joey Logano ($9,600) – While Harvick has taken a pie in the face in each of the last two races, Logano has quietly done his thing. Logano is not leading laps and piling up the fast laps, but he’s right there in the top 5 every week. New Hampshire was Joey’s 17th top 5 and he’s now the Vegas favorite to win the the Sprint Cup.
3. Matt Kenseth ($10,100) – Tied with Logano for the best odds to become the Sprint Cup Champion is Matt Kenseth. His five wins are the most in NASCAR. Four of those wins have come in the last two months. JGR is smoking hot.
4. Kevin Harvick ($11,000) – Didn’t he have to win last week? It’s the same story. Harvick has a fast car and his back is against the wall. He had last week’s race won. Supposedly, Harvick have plenty of fuel left, but a mechanical error caused a fuel shortage (Earnhardt Jr. and Kurt Busch faced similar issues with the same engine).
5. Carl Edwards ($9,500) – DFS players can’t go wrong with JGR. This was shaping up to be a mediocre season for Carl Edwards. He was averaging a 19th place finish in June. Over the last 11 races, Edwards is averaging a 7th place finish and looks like a new driver on the track.
6. Ryan Newman ($6,900) – With the new price shift, Newman’s value jumps. There’s nothing flashy here; just safe and sound consistency. Newman averages 34 fppg and at a $6,900 salary it equals the magic 5 points per $1,000 ratio.
7. Jamie McMurray ($6,800) – Jamie Mac is in the same boat as Newman. The consistency advantage goes to Newman – his slow and steady formula nearly won him the Sprint Cup last year. Over the last three races, the advantage goes to McMurray with an average fantasy score of 49 points.
8. Dale Earnhardt Jr. ($8,500) – The 88 has the 3rd best average finish this year. He was running well at New Hampshire and was on his way to yet another top 10, but he ran out of gas. Good Driver, Bad Luck.
9. Brad Keselowski ($9,900) – Going into New Hampshire, BK had a 10 race top 10 streak. He finished 12th at New Hampshire due to a questionable penalty on the last restart. BK is very fast right now. Good Driver, Bad Luck.
10. Kyle Busch ($10,200) – This is the Kyle Busch we remember. The driver that runs too hard and pushes his car to the limit. The driver that has never won a Chase race blew a tire, hit the will, and ruined daily fantasy days across the board. Good Driver, Bad Luck.
11. Aric Almirola ($6,100) – Over the last 10 races, Almirola is averaging 29 fantasy points (that includes a -10 and -27). Thirty fantasy points at $6K equals the magic 5 points per $1,000 salary ratio.
12. Kurt Busch ($9,000) – The price drop makes Busch an interesting play. He’s got the skill and the car, but he’s only been slightly above average lately. He has followed his 7 race top 10 streak with an 8 race average finish of 15th.
13. Jimmie Johnson ($11,200) – Price spike and rightfully so. Johnson dominates at Dover (10 wins), but he has not been $11,000 dominant lately.
14. Jeff Gordon ($8,400) – Everyone was worrying about where the last win of his career would happen. It didn’t happen and it’s not going to happen, but Gordon has been a top 15 car all year. That’s impressive for the old man. Gordon is averaging 40 fppg over his last 5 races.
15. Martin Truex Jr. ($9,300) – New Hampshire was just Truex’s 4th top 10 in the last 10 races. He’s good, but not quite where he was in late May. Truex put up 95 points at the first Dover race, so watch out.
16. Paul Menard ($6,800) – He averages a 17th place finish this year, and that’s what he does every week. He has a high floor, but a low ceiling unless he qualifies poorly.
17. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($5,800) – Stop the presses! Wrecky has finished inside the top 20 in the last three races. This is a steal at his price. Warning: It’s a lock that when Stenhouse breaks into the top 20 rankings, he responds by wrecking.
18. Clint Bowyer ($6,900) – Menard and Bowyer are similar in that they both average a 17th place finish. What’s the difference? Menard is always in 17th, but Bowyer has 11 top 10s and a handful of 30th or worse finishes.
19. Kasey Kahne ($7,600) – At New Hampshire, Kahne has a good car and he finished 9th. His 40 point fantasy day was above the 5 point per $1,000 ratio.
20. Kyle Larson ($8,100) – He’s running well, but he feels a little over priced. Larson is not better than his teammate McMurray, but Larson costs $1,300 more. Larson is more likely to lead laps and run fast laps, but he’s also more likely to hit a wall.