Another week, another race. Here we’ll break down all the most important Daily Fantasy NASCAR information in order to drive your success! The information below is provided by DraftKings. The information is not developed or provided by NASCAR, Inc., or its affiliates.
TOP 5 FAVORITES TO WIN
1. Brad Keselowski ($9,700) – Bristol and Richmond are not comparable. They’re both shorter than a mile, but Richmond is a flat track. There is one similarity from a DFS perspective: there isn’t a perennial champ. The driver closest to Richmond domination is Brad Keselowski. Over the last 5 Richmond races, BK has the highest driver rating (122.0). He only has 3 top 10s over that span, but he’s led over 100 laps in 3 of those races. If Team Penske can run a mistake free race, BK should be able to pile up points.
2. Kyle Busch ($11,000) – After Kyle wrecked on Sunday, he complained that he hates racing Bristol and it has never been the same since they ground the track. We could have used that memo before the race, Kyle. Let’s hope Kyle is fired up and hungry at Richmond. Just like Bristol, Kyle has the most wins at this short track. Just like Bristol, it’s been several years since Rowdy won at Richmond. Just like Bristol, the Fall Richmond race was a strong performance for Kyle Busch (2nd place with an average running position of 3rd). Ignore these coincidental similarities. Kyle Busch finishes inside the top 5 at a rate of 67% at Richmond, the next best driver has a 37% top 5 rate.
3. Joey Logano ($10,200) – The 22 car’s race setup has been just a tick off this season. That compounded with pit road mistakes is why Logano has not scored above 50 fantasy points in the last 5 races. It’s not the end of the world. Logano has the 3rd best average finish this season (8th). In the last 4 Richmond races, Logano has finished 6th or better (116.8 driver rating ranks 2nd). There’s a catch. Logano has never dominated Richmond. He started on the pole twice last season at Richmond, and failed to lead the most laps both times. Sound familiar? I think Logano could see low ownership this weekend.
“Last Spring, Kurt Busch scored 152 fantasy points at Richmond”
4. Kurt Busch ($9,100) – Just one more car to pass, but Kurt couldn’t pull it off. Bristol was another routine top 10 for the most underrated top tier driver in NASCAR. The 41 car has been fast out of the gates, but hasn’t had the necessary long run speed to win. They found it at Bristol. Last Spring, Kurt scored 152 fantasy points at Richmond.
5. Kevin Harvick ($10,600) – The 4 car didn’t win at Bristol. No surprise. The 4 car almost ran the most fast laps at Bristol. No surprise. Harvick has the fastest car every week. Other drivers may have better track history, but Harvick shows up with a rocket ship each week. Harvick may not dominate Richmond like other drivers, but he has a career driver rating of 110.1 at Richmond. It’s the age old debate: Current form versus track history.
LONG SHOTS TO SCORE BIG
1. Kyle Larson ($7,600) – He’s certainly suited for GPPs only. Larson looked great at Bristol, but a mechanical failure ruined his day. His Richmond history is comparable to his Bristol success. Kyle Larson has finished inside the top 20 in all 4 of his Richmond races (13th avg. finish).
2. Clint Bowyer ($7,200) – Against all odds, Clint Bowyer overcame his 2016 struggles and took home his first top 10 since last Fall’s Talladega race. Bristol was chaotic as predicted, and Bowyer stayed out of trouble. His track history led us to believe he would. At Richmond, Bowyer has a similar résumé. He has two Richmond wins, an average finish of 11th, and top 10s in his last three races at this short track.
3. Danica Patrick ($6,400) – This is a short, flat track pick. Danica’s best finishes this season were at short, flat tracks (Phoenix and Martinsville). She has finished inside the top 20 in 2 of the last 3 Richmond races. This is a top tier ride. All she has to do is avoid going a lap down early, and she should be set.
Carl Edwards ($10,300) – His seven top 10s are the most in NASCAR, and he’s now a race winner.
Dale Earnhardt, Jr. ($9,300) – Finishing 2nd in back-to-back races is an awesome achievement, but Junior’s Bristol performance was near legendary. It was certain death when his car stalled on the first lap, but he recovered, and went on to pass 38 of the best stock car drivers in the world.
Kevin Harvick ($10,600) – Success isn’t always measured in wins. In DFS NASCAR, it can be measured in fast laps. Harvick ran 79 fast laps at Bristol. He’s run more than any other driver this season (12.1%).
Matt Kenseth (Fall 2015)
Kurt Busch (Spring 2015)
Brad Keselowski (Fall 2014)
Jeff Gordon (Spring 2014)
Carl Edwards (Fall 2013)
PICK TO WIN
Dale Earnhardt, Jr. ($9,300) – Over the last 8 Richmond races, there’s been 8 different winners. Let’s get weird. I’m going off the board and fading the favorites. Junior looks really comfortable and confident at the moment, and he’s my pick to win.