Another week, another race. Here we’ll break down all the most important Daily Fantasy NASCAR information in order to drive your success! The information below is provided by DraftKings. The information is not developed or provided by NASCAR, Inc., or its affiliates.
TOP 5 FAVORITES TO WIN
1. Martin Truex, Jr. – Current form has been the best predictor of success this season. It has been a while since the NASCAR circuit traveled to an intermediate track. The last 1.5 mile race was the Memorial Day race at Charlotte. Truex’s Charlotte performance was one of the greatest fantasy NASCAR performances ever (197 points). At Kansas (the intermediate track race before Charlotte), Truex scored 104 fantasy points. If it wasn’t for a pit road mistake at the end of the race, he could have scored 30 more fantasy points.
2. Kyle Busch – There was a bump in the road this season for Kyle, but it appears he’s gotten through it. At intermediate tracks, he has not struggled. He has two wins, a 3rd place finish, and a 4th place finish. We can’t ignore the 33rd place finish at Charlotte, but Busch was inside the top 10 with 10 laps left, He just pushed his car too hard; no big deal. There has been just five races at Kentucky, Rowdy has won two of them (122 fantasy points in 2015).
3. Brad Keselowski – Kentucky is not Kyle Busch’s track. It’s Brad’s track. BK has two Sprint Cup wins and three Xfinity wins at Kentucky. He didn’t win last year’s race in the new low downforce package, but he scored 90 fantasy points. BK has a 1.5 mile track win at Las Vegas, and 4 top 10s in the 5 intermediate track races this season. The biggest question mark this weekend is the new pavement at Kentucky. Will Brad’s Kentucky domination continue or is this a new track? We’ll have a pretty good idea after practice.
4. Kevin Harvick – Kentucky has a brand new track surface. The tricky, low banked oval that had just a little more grip than a dirt track may be a whole new race track. The cars will have a lot more grip in the corners this weekend. Teams will scramble to build completely new car setups. Not all teams. Some teams test at Kentucky in June. Harvick was one of those drivers, and he was the fastest on both days of testing.
5. Jimmie Johnson. – It’s been a relatively quiet year for Johnson. He has a win and 4 top 5s in 5 intermediate track races this season. At Kentucky, Johnson has finished inside the top 10 in all 5 races. He has not won at Kentucky. This is one of just several tracks where Jimmie is winless. Kentucky is a bucket list race. He wants to check it off. Johnson is not likely to outscore the other drivers on the list, but he’s the best when it comes to stealing wins.
LONG SHOTS TO SCORE BIG
1. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. – With Stenhouse’s increased salary and his routine top 15 starting position, he’s been perceived as a fantasy NASCAR liability. This is incorrect. In the 5 intermediate track races, Stenhouse’s worst finish is 16th (average finish of 13th). Ricky finished 11th at Kentucky last year.
2. Kasey Kahne – In 5 Kentucky races, Kahne has 4 top 15s and an average finish of 12th. After taking part in the Kentucky test session, Kahne said the track raced like Las Vegas. Kahne finished 10th at Las Vegas.
3. AJ Allmendinger – Kentucky hasn’t been a great place for Allmendinger (average finish of 21st), but he’s got two things going for him this weekend. Allmendinger has run pretty well this season, and he took part in the Kentucky test session.
Brad Keselowski – Make that two plate track wins this year for BK, and 5 in the last 7 for Team Penske. BK has a top 10 in 7 of the last 8 races.
Joey Logano – After the Michigan win, the spotlight was on Logano, but his teammate, Keselowski was on a better run. Now the spotlight is on Keselowski, but Logano may be on a better run with 4 consecutive top 5s.
Kurt Busch – The 23rd place finish doesn’t look good, but it’s Daytona. Kurt was running inside the top 5 just several hundred yards from the the finish line when he was wrecked. The 14 top 10s in 17 races is impressive.
Kyle Busch (2015)
Brad Keselowski (2014)
Matt Kenseth (2013)
Brad Keselowski (2012)
Kyle Busch (2011)
PICK TO WIN
Kyle Busch – No one is better in the 2016 low downforce package. If the track runs like the old Kentucky: advantage Kyle. If it runs like Kansas (similar, newly paved oval): advantage Kyle (he won at Kansas).
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.