Another week, another race. Here we’ll break down all of the most important Daily Fantasy NASCAR information in order to drive your success! The information below is provided by DraftKings. The information is not developed or provided by NASCAR, Inc., or its affiliates.
TOP 5 FAVORITES TO WIN
1. Joey Logano – In the last two Michigan races, the fantasy point leader has eclipsed 100 fantasy NASCAR points at Michigan (Kenseth last Fall, and Logano in June). That’s not supposed to happen at long 2 mile tracks, but it happened because NASCAR has tinkered with the rules package. It’s impossible to pass cars, and it’s whatever-is-harder-than-impossible to pass the leader. Both drivers started from the pole and won the race in dominant fashion. The gameplan: pick the guys up front. Logano’s worst starting position for Team Penske is 11th in 7 Michigan races. He’s averaging the 3rd best starting position in 2016. Since joining Team Penske, he’s never finished outside of the top 10 at Michigan.
2. Kevin Harvick – I wasn’t confident that Harvick would win last week, he’s a perennial second place driver. I was confident that he would run fast laps, and he did. There are only a handful of drivers that run fast laps each week and Harvick is one of them. This week is different, fast laps do not necessarily go to fast cars. The car in clean air (the leader) will gobble up most of the fast laps due to the zero downforce package. It’s like the cars in dirty air are driving with negative downforce. Harvick has five second place finishes in the last 7 Michigan races (6 top 5s). Harvick was dominant in the one non-top 5 finish, but his day was ruined by his tire changer.
3. Brad Keselowski – In June, Team Penske earned their 50th win at the Michigan track once owned by The Captain. Unfortunately, the hometown hero did not get the honor. It’s not for lack of trying, just like Logano, BK has been excellent at this track. His driver rating over the last 6 at Michigan (108.3) is the 4th best in NASCAR. In the last 10 Michigan races, he has not finished outside of the top 15 (7 top 10s, 4 top 5s). It will be hard to pass the leader on Sunday. and if it happens, then it will likely be via pit road strategy.
4. Martin Truex, Jr. – The 78 car looked very fast at Bristol, and that’s one of Truex’s worst tracks. What happens when he races at at track where he’s comfortable? Treux finished 3rd in both Michigan races in 2015. His 2016 Michigan race was disappointing, but it wasn’t his fault. If you watched that race, Chase Elliott got smoked on numerous restarts by Joey Logano. Truex happened to be right behind the 24 slug on a late restart and spun out. Truex was better than a 12th place car. I love Truex’s speed and if he can start on the front line, this race could be his.
5. Denny Hamlin – After the Daytona 500, Hamlin disappeared and seemed to be the fifth wheel of JGR. Right now, he’s arguably the best driver in NASCAR. He finished 33rd at Michigan in June; dig deeper. His average running position was 9th (he cut a tireand wrecked with 11 laps remaining). Hamlin’s Michgian numbers aren’t quite as good as the rest of the top picks (5th, 11th, and 7th in the three races prior to the June race), but his current form is comparable, if not better. A scientific study on current form vs. track history (yes, this actually happened) proved that current form is a better predictive tool than track history.
LONG SHOTS TO SCORE BIG
1. Austin Dillon – In 15 races this season, Dillon has topped 30 fantasy points (an average of 42 pts. in those 15 races). At Michigan, Dillon has top 10s in the last two races.
2. Kyle Larson – It’s simple – win and get in. Larson won’t point his way into the playoffs. It’s all or nothing, but a win is not that far fetched. Larson and his car have been in a groove this summer, but he needs a little good fortune. In the June Michigan race, Larson finished 3rd and his average running position was 4th.
3. Chris Buescher – This is no longer a Front Row Motorsports Ford. It’s a Roush-Fenway Ford and Roush cars are legendary at Michigan. Buescher is likely Roush’s only shot at the the playoffs. He’ll have Roush’s best ride, pit crew and anything else he wants.
Denny Hamlin – Not only did he extend his top 10 streak to 5 straight races, but with Kyle Busch’s wreck, Hamlin’s streak is the longest in NASCAR going into Michigan.
Kevin Harvick – The second longest top 10 streak at the moment is a whopping 2 race streak. No one is hot, so Harvick’s wreck at The Glen can be forgiven. Harvick leads NASCAR with 18 top 10s.
Jamie McMurray – His back-to-back 8th place finishes aren’t headline worthy. His 22 solid finishes in 23 races (his one poor race was a plate race) makes his the safest driver in NASCAR. Get Jamie Mac an insurance company sponsor.
Joey Logano (Spring 2016)
Matt Kenseth (Fall 2015)
Kurt Busch (Spring 2015)
Jeff Gordon (Fall 2014)
Jimmie Johnson (Spring 2014)
PICK TO WIN
Joey Logano – Sweeping Michigan is a tall order, but is it? Logano won the pole, ran 51 fast laps and led 138 of 200 laps in the June race.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.