Another week, another race. Here we’ll break down all the most important Daily Fantasy NASCAR information in order to drive your success! The information below is provided by DraftKings. The information is not developed or provided by NASCAR, Inc., or its affiliates.
TOP 5 FAVORITES TO WIN
1. Matt Kenseth – In the last two races, Kenseth started 18th. He won at New Hampshire and finished 2nd at Indianapolis. Both of these tracks are flat banked and feature only one racing groove. Passing is a rarity. Passing inside the top 15 in unheard of. Clean air is king in NASCAR. What Kenseth has done defies science, or this is a really good driver in a really good race car. Pocono is another flat banked, single groove track. Kenseth won the Fall 2015 Pocono race and he has finished inside the top 10 in each of the last three Pocono races.
2. Joey Logano – At the end of races, Logano seems to always be right there in the top 5. He hasn’t dominated since Michigan, but Pocono is not a lap turning domination affair. More often than not, Pocono is won via strategy. This race favors the teams with a win in the bank that have nothing to lose. They can skip a pit or extend their fuel in an all-or-nothing gamble for glory. Logano hasn’t had the best car lately, but it’s been good enough to be upfront at the end. Logano has 3 top 5s in the last 4 Pocono races. What happen the one time? Logano led 97 laps and was leading the race with three laps left, but he ran out of fuel. Pocono is an all-or-nothing gamble for glory.
3. Brad Keselowski – Penske is good at Pocono. Logano and Blaney both posted top 10s in the Spring. If the Spring race were just a couple laps longer, it’s likely that Brad would have won. Nonetheless, Brad has never won here. He’s had the car, but it’s Pocono – the best car doesn’t win. He finished 2nd last Fall. He dominated the Spring 2014 race, but he collected debris on his grill late in the race, and Earnhardt, Jr. snuck away with the win. Lady luck may not have been on his side in the past, but in BK’s 4 wins this season, she’s been riding shotgun with her feet out the window.
4. Kurt Busch – Can Kurt win back-to-back? It’s a tall order, but Dale Jr. pulled it off in 2014. Pocono doesn’t require domination. It’s about running upfront, and catching a break. Over the last five Pocono races, Kurt’s average running position ranks 3rd (average position of 10th). This year no one (except Kevin Harvick) has been better when it comes to running up front. Busch has stumbled a little of late, but his 15 top 10s are the second most in NASCAR.
5. Chase Elliott – Pocono was an eye opener. Up until that point, Elliott was a solid top 10 driver, but not a guy that would run out front. Elliott nearly won at Pocono and at Michigan the next week. Normally Dale Jr. is the play, but he’s out with concussion symptoms. Elliott’s last month has not been great, but two wrecks (a plate race, and a road race) are exceptions not the rule.
LONG SHOTS TO SCORE BIG
1. Kyle Larson – What did I say last week? The dirt racer loves long, flat tracks. He finished 5th at Indy (top 10s in all three career races). Larson has never finished outside of the top 15 at Pocono.
2. Kasey Kahne – The Hendrick Chevys look good in the Spring. If Johnson didn’t fall prey to the restart wreck monster, Hendrick would have finished all four drivers inside the top 10. Kahne has topped 30 fantasy points in 8 of the last 10 races.
3. Cole Whitt – Hear me out. The result of limited passing opportunities has been chaotic restarts. At tracks where passing is even more rare (like Pocono) the restarts are flat out nuts. While a large portion of the field wrecks out on restarts, Whitt will sit back, survive, and hit five times value or more based on attrition (26 Fantasy points per race at Pocono over the last 5 races).
Kyle Busch – In the spring, Rowdy was a potent DFS performer, but he went cold during the early Summer races. He’s hot again with 90 points at New Hampshire and 107 points at Indianapolis.
Joey Logano – The last restart at Indy did not work out for Logano and he finished just outside of the top 5, but he did score his 7th top 10 in 8 races.
Kevin Harvick – If not for Daytona (volatile plate track), Harvick would have seven consecutive top 10 finishes
Kurt Busch (Spring 2016)
Matt Kenseth (Fall 2015)
Martin Truex, Jr. (Spring 2015)
Dale Earnhardt, Jr. (Fall 2014)
Dale Earnhardt, Jr. (Spring 2014)
PICK TO WIN
Matt Kenseth – The driver and the car are locked in. If Kenseth can pass at Indy, then Pocono should be a walk in the park.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.