Another week, another race. Here we’ll break down all the most important Daily Fantasy NASCAR information in order to drive your success! The information below is provided by DraftKings. The information is not developed or provided by NASCAR, Inc., or its affiliates.
TOP 5 FAVORITES TO WIN
1. Brad Keselowski – In 2014 and 2012, Keselowski won at Chicagoland and scored over 100 fantasy points in each race. At the last two intermediate tracks (Kentucky and Darlington), Keselowski has scored over 100 points in each race. It should be noted that BK’s 100 point intermediate track races were at track that employed a low downforce package, and Chicagoland will not be using that package. This is a slight concern. Keselowski has driven well everywhere since Daytona.
2. Kyle Busch – Rowdy has been an animal all summer. This is Chase race #1; he’s going to bring it, right? In the 11 races since Kyle got hot, he’s finished 2nd or better in 6 of those races. Kyle is averaging 65 points per race over that 11 race span. At his usual top tier salary, he easily outperforms the 5 point per $1,000 litmus test. In the last three years at Chicago, Busch has finished 7th, 2nd, and 4th (66 fantasy point average).
3. Kevin Harvick – Statistically, Harvick is having the best year. When he runs worse than 5th it’s almost a controversy. At intermediate tracks this season, no one is in his league; Harvick has an average finish of 4th at 1.5 mile tracks (83 fppg avg). If fast laps and laps led are highly dependent on running up front, then how can you pass up on the driver that is a lock to be up front?
4. Matt Kenseth – In 2013, Kenseth won this race on way to scoring 99 fantasy points. This shouldn’t be a surprise because Kenseth is arguably the best intermediate track driver on the circuit (3rd highest top 5%). On top of his 1.5 mile track success, Kenseth has been on a roll of late. Ignore the Bristol/Darlington hiccup. Outside of those race, this JGR driver has an average finish of 3.5 over the last two months.
5. Joey Logano – The hottest and most consistent driver is only ranked #5? That’s just how good the competition is. We know he’ll run up front. He’s 2nd in top 5s this year and his average finish of 6th at intermediate tracks ranks 2nd as well. Logano has not dominated Chicago in the past, but that can be said of many of the tracks that Logano has conquered this year. Logano is living proof that 2015 stats are more valid than past track stats. Tony Stewart has great numbers at Chicago, but that’s not the play. Look at the 2015 stats, it’s Logano.
LONG SHOTS TO SCORE BIG
1. Martin Truex Jr. – The Furniture Row team has struggled this summer, but Chicago marks a return to an intermediate track with the 2015 rules package. At 1.5 mile tracks with the 2015 rules package, Truex Jr. is averaging a 6th place finish.
2. Jeff Gordon – When his season was on the line last week, Gordon stepped up. Sure, his big fantasy points day was aided by place differential points, but that’s the only way to play Gordon. Now that Gordon is in the Chase, his season is on the line again. If he qualifies poorly, Gordon is a great play at his price.
3. Greg Biffle – Roush Fenway Racing missed the Chase. This means there is very little pressure on The Bif. He doesn’t have to worry about points; he’s running for wins. He’s averaging a 15th place finish at intermediate track this season.
Denny Hamlin – He just missed extending his top 5 streak to four straight at Richmond. Driving with a torn ACL and a fair amount of pain, Hamlin managed to finish 6th.
Joey Logano – It’s been over a month since Logano was not featured in the recent success section. At Richmond, Logano did not have the best car, but smart driving and position helped Logano score yet another top 5 (3rd at Richmond).
Dale Earnhardt Jr. – Finishing position does not tell the whole story. Earnhardt Jr. is becoming notorious for his qualifying efforts, but in the DFS world, this is a gift. Over the last 6 races, Junior has benefited from place differential points and is averaging 52 fantasy points per race.
Brad Keselowski (2014)
Matt Kenseth (2013)
Brad Keselowski (2012)
Tony Stewart (2011)
PICK TO WIN
Brad Keselowski – Chicago dominance and a current hot streak (70 pt average over the last 9 races) make BK a heavy favorite at Chicagoland. At intermediate tracks this season, BK has the 2nd best average finish (6th).