Another week, another race. Here we’ll break down all the most important Daily Fantasy NASCAR information in order to drive your success! The information below is provided by DraftKings. The information is not developed or provided by NASCAR, Inc., or its affiliates.
TOP 5 FAVORITES TO WIN
1. Kyle Busch – In the spring, Rowdy had the Richmond race won until his teammate, Carl Edwards, bumped him out of the way in the final turn. Tough luck Kyle, but it didn’t really hurt DFS players. We’re all well versed in what Kyle has done this season, so I’ll spare you that routine write up. If you’re new, Kyle is good. Let’s talk about Richmond. Kyle finishes inside the top 5 at Richmond 68% of the time (the next best driver has a rate of 39%). His top 10 percentage is 73% (1st). His 46.3 laps led per Richmond race is decimal points from the 2nd best in NASCAR.
2. Carl Edwards – The short tracks have come easy for Carl this season. He nearly won at Phoenix, finished 6th at Martinsville, won at Bristol, won at Richmond, he had a top 10 car at Dover and New Hampshire before being wrecked and then 6th in the August Bristol race. Edwards has been the short track driver of 2016. For that matter, the JGR Toyotas have been the short track cars of 2016. It may appear that Edwards stole a win by bumping Kyle Busch at the end of the spring race, but Edwards led 151 laps in the spring. This is a JGR Toyota week.
3. Kevin Harvick – It doesn’t matter what the track’s name is. Harvick is averaging 66 fantasy points per race this season. He averaged 72 points per race last season. That’s a large sample size. At Richmond in the spring, Harvick finished 5th, but did not have the right setup all day. This weekend’s race will be a night race, so the swing-and-miss on the set up in the spring is not a big deal. His average finish of 11th at Richmond is tied for the 2nd best in NASCAR. Harvick’s only weakness is his pit crew, but Harvick normally fights his way back up front after their weekly mistake.
4. Kurt Busch – No one can finish inside the top 10 all season long. It was only a matter of time until Kurt experienced some bad luck. Paul Menard blew a tire and ended Kurt’s night at Darlington. At Richmond, Kurt has the highest driver rating over the last 6 races (115.5). His average running positions over that span are 5th, 11th, 1st, 8th, 3rd and 5th. Typically, Kurt isn’t a lap leader, but at Richmond it’s a different story. Kurt has led more than 50 laps in 3 of the last 6 races.
5. Denny Hamlin – There are a lot of top tier drivers that could have made the top 5. Hamlin gets the nudge because he’s the hottest driver in NASCAR over the last two months. The hot hand trumps track history. This is Hamlin’s hometrack, so that can’t be overlooked either. Hamlin’s average running position was 7th in the spring and he finished 6th for the second time in a row at Richmond. Hamlin has the 2nd best average finish at Richmond and his 1,405 laps led is the most among full time drivers. In the 6 short track races this season, Hamlin has 4 top 10s, a rare wreck at Martinsville and some late race bad luck at Bristol in the spring.
LONG SHOTS TO SCORE BIG
1. Kyle Larson – This is the hottest driver this summer and summer isn’t officially over until September 21st. In 6 Richmond races, Larson’s worst finish in 16th. In the spring, drivers experimented running a groove near the wall. No one rides the wall better than Larson.
2. Jamie McMurray – Over the last 4 weeks, McMurray has stepped up his game (4 consecutive top 15s). Avoiding bad wrecks is not good enough to make the the playoffs. He’ll shoot for a similar finish at Richmond. His worst Richmond finish over the last 6 races is 16th.
3. Ryan Newman – A seven point playoff deficit is not insurmountable, but Newman will likely be fined 10-15 points this week. Newman’s got to win at Richmond. If they take chances during cautions and bring an illegally set up car, again, then they can get it done.
Denny Hamlin – Why is there a recent success section? Denny Hamlin. Darlington was his 7th consecutive top 10. He’s closing in on the longest streak of the season.
Kevin Harvick – Top 10 steak? Try a top 5 streak. Harvick has three top 5s in a row and he only has two bad races in the 25 races this season. Toss out the bad races and his average finish is 6th.
Kyle Larson – At Michigan, Larson led 41 laps on his way to victory lane. His encore was finishing third at Darlington, leading 45 laps and running the 3rd most fast laps.
Carl Edwards (Spring 2016)
Matt Kenseth (Fall 2015)
Kurt Busch (Spring 2015)
Brad Keselowski (Fall 2014)
Carl Edwards (Spring 2014)
PICK TO WIN
Kyle Busch – It’s been way too long since Kyle Busch visited victory lane. On paper, he’s the Richmond favorite. In real life, he’s the Richmond favorite.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.