Another week, another race. We’ll break down all the most important Daily Fantasy NASCAR information in order to drive your success! The information below is provided by DraftKings. The information is not developed or provided by NASCAR, Inc., or its affiliates.
TOP 5 FAVORITES TO WIN
1. Kyle Busch – The Sprint Cup only ventures to Indianapolis once a year. This track is meant for open wheeled racing, and it shows. Passes are a rarity at this long flat track. Indy will be more racy than last year’s failed high downforce experiment. Still, track position will be king. Kyle Busch routinely qualifies and runs up front; he gets it. His pit crew is best in NASCAR and they’ll fight to keep him up front; they get it. Kyle Busch doesn’t run races to score fast laps and laps led points. He runs upfront every week because that’s how you win. Any car starting 8th or further back on the restarts is subject to chaos. Oh, and Rowdy swept Indy last year.
2. Kevin Harvick – Indianapolis is the track for fading track history. This is no man’s track. Jimmie Johnson has 4 wins at Indy, but his average finish is 15th. Current form and clean air are the variables this week. With the shuffling on pit road and wacky re-starts, it’s hard to account of clean air, but current form always leans towards Harvick. He leads NASCAR in fantasy points per race, and when he rarely doesn’t hit the top 3 in scoring his car is right there threatening all day. Last week he once again displayed the ability to pass top tier cars inside the top 10. This car has short run speed and long run speed. How is that scientifically possible? Seriously, I’m asking you; how is that possible? The biggest drawback is that the #4 pit crew has ruined a couple races for Harvick with just small mistakes.
3. Matt Kenseth – At Indy, Kenseth has finished inside the top 10 in every race for JGR, and his top 5% is the best in NASCAR (44%). Bad luck ruined a competitive Spring for Kenseth, but the Summer has been a different story. Kenseth has 6 top 10s in the last 10 races (two non-top 10s were plate races, and one was a road course race).
4. Joey Logano – Everyone cannot dominate. Elite drivers get shut down from time to time. Logano isn’t leading the pack, but he’s right there with them finishing 5th or better in the last 6 races. At Indy, he has back-to-back top 5s and has never finished outside of the top 10 with Penske. What sets Logano apart is not his track history, but his qualifying efforts this season. Logano averages the second best starting position. He started second last year at Indy and finished second leading for 28 laps. This is a track where it’s nearly impossible to pass. If a driver wants to be up front, they better start up front.
5. Martin Truex, Jr. – A lot of tried and true NASCAR statistics have been called into question this season. Track history and practice speeds barely seem to correlate with race results. Current form, track position and pit strategy is the name of the game. Truex finished 4th at Indy last season, but for the rest of his career he’s been average at this this flat, 2.5 mile track. If you believe in track history, then move on to the the long shots, if you trust current form, then there’s no one faster than Truex. The 78 Toyota’s dominance at intermediate tracks was expected, but this car is flying at all types of tracks: short tracks with high banking, short tracks with very little banking. This is a fast car and fast cars score points.
LONG SHOTS TO SCORE BIG
1. Kyle Larson – Every week Kyle Larson pop up as a long shot. The 23 year old is right on the edge of victory and Larson is comfortable at Indy. In two Indy races, Larson has two top 10 finishes where he ran inside the top 10 all day. In his 5 Pocono races (flat, long track), Larson’s worst finish is 12th.
2. Tony Stewart – It’s worth considering Smoke as a favorite, but he’s been on fire as a long shot, so he’s staying put. Indiana is home for Tony and this is his last Sprint Cup race in the Hoosier State. That stuff only happens in movies. The last month has looked a lot like a movie.
3. Paul Menard – Tony Stewart isn’t the only driver making a homecoming this weekend. Indy is Menard’s hometrack and the location of his sole Sprint Cup victory. Menard has 6 top 20s in the last 9 Indianapolis races.
Tony Stewart – Going into his hometrack, Smoke has back-to-back top 5s and 4 top 10s in 5 races.
Joey Logano – Logano has 5 top 5s in the last 6 races.
Greg Biffle – When was the last time The Bif scored three consecutive top 10 finishes? He had a streak of 5 in the summer of 2014. Can he extend the streak to 4 this week?
Kyle Busch (2015)
Jeff Gordon (2014)
Ryan Newman (2013)
Jimmie Johnson (2012)
Paul Menard (2011)
PICK TO WIN
Kyle Busch – Current form is the formula. The car is fast, the pit crew is fast and the driver just wants to win. This race has zero impact on the Chase. There is nothing to learn here. Just go out there and win, Rowdy.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.