Another week, another race. Here we’ll break down all the most important Daily Fantasy NASCAR information in order to drive your success! The information below is provided by DraftKings. The information is not developed or provided by NASCAR, Inc., or its affiliates.
TOP 5 FAVORITES TO WIN
1. Kevin Harvick – After missing out on the DFS top 5 at Chicago because of a series of unfortunate events that would make Lemony Snicket give up, Harvick responded with the 3rd best DFS score and a win at New Hampshire (as predicted in last week’s cheat sheet). Daily Fantasy NASCAR stats are still in their nascent stages, so it’s hard to grasp how extraordinary Harvick’s numbers are. In 28 races, Harvick has 19 top 5 DFS performances. What about Dover? He’s the highest rated driver over the last 6 races at this short track, but it doesn’t stop there. Here are his last 4 fantasy scores at Dover: 72, 216, 100, 107 (DraftKings Fantasy Points). Yeah, you’re only picking 5 drivers this week.
2. Martin Truex, Jr. – There is no such thing as a hot streak in NASCAR. This is a technical and scientific sport. If a business exceeds earnings quarter after quarter, they’re not on a hot streak. They’re doing their job and they’re expected to do it every quarter moving forward. That’s the 78 team. They build a winner each week. Truex has topped 60 fantasy points 12 times this season. Only Harvick has more plus 60 point scores. In the spring Dover race, Truex ran the second most fast laps (52) and led the 5th most laps (47).
3. Matt Kenseth – No JGR driver has been better at short tracks this season. Kenseth was one restart away from his 3rd short track victory of the season last weekend. Wins are inconsequential in Daily Fantasy NASCAR; Kenseth scored the most fantasy points. As I wrote last week, Kenseth’s only poor finishes at short tracks were due to chaos and bad luck. This car deserves to be in the conversation with Harvick and Truex. At Dover, Kenseth has the 3rd highest driver rating over the last 6 races (112.0).
4. Jimmie Johnson – The Hendrick short track program has not been great this season. Still, we must listen to the track history truthers. It’s hard to ignore Johnson’s dominance at this track. Ten wins at a track is legendary. In the spring race, Johnson got caught in the mayhem that he caused (transmission failure on a restart at a narrow short track while starting second – oh my!). Before one of the worst DFS wrecks of the season, Johnson had advanced from 21st to 2nd.
5. Kyle Larson – This is a big moment. Kyle Larson is no longer a long shot. He’s a top 5 favorite. It’s time to believe. Something has clicked. From summer to fall, he’s been great, and he’s finished inside the top 10 in 4 of the last 5 races. Dover is Larson’s best track. His worst finish is 11th. In the spring race, he finished 2nd and scored the most fantasy points (102.75).
LONG SHOTS TO SCORE BIG
1. Kasey Kahne – This is the definition of a dark horse. Kahne lives in the shadows because he’s not a Chaser or cheap. He is hot and he’s been good at Dover with finishes of 6th or better in the last three races.
2. Ryan Blaney – As a rookie there is an unrealistic expectation that you must make the Chase. That’s gone. Blaney is relaxed. He has 4 top 15s in the last 4 races and 6 top 20s in 9 short track races. His best short track finish was at Dover (8th).
3. Clint Bowyer – In the spring race, Bowyer started 32nd and ran around 25th all day until the big one hit and he finished 12th. We’ll see chaos, but not that kind of chaos. Bowyer had the 12 highest DFS score last week driving from 37th to 22nd. A double digit place differential score is probable.
Kasey Kahne – This team has speed, but they found it too late. Kahne is riding a 4 race top 10 streak.
Kevin Harvick – If every break didn’t go against him in Chicago, then he would have been a top 5 car. Even with the Chicago mishap, Harvick has a top 5 finish in 5 of the last 6 races.
Martin Truex, Jr. – The 4 consecutive top 10s are dandy, but the weekly fantasy point explosion is getting ridiculous. Truex has scored 82 or more points in each of the last 4 races.
Matt Kenseth (Spring 2016)
Kevin Harvick (Fall 2015)
Jimmie Johnson(Spring 2015)
Jeff Gordon (Fall 2014)
Jimmie Johnson (Spring 2014)
PICK TO WIN
Kyle Larson – I have nailed the winner in 3 of the last 4, but a Twitter follower wasn’t impressed. He dared me to make the chalky pick of Jimmie Johnson. I am going Larson. He should have won in the spring- he wins this weekend.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.