Another week, another race. Here we’ll break down all the most important Daily Fantasy NASCAR information in order to drive your success! The information below is provided by DraftKings. The information is not developed or provided by NASCAR, Inc., or its affiliates.
TOP 5 FAVORITES TO WIN
1. Brad Keselowski – It’s plate racing, so the drivers that finish in the top 10 can certainly vary quite a bit. However, there are patterns. Some names appear in the top 10 more than others. Brad Keselowski is one of those names, especially at Talladega. In the last 4 Talladega races, BK has 2 wins and a 4th place finish. Over his career, he has 4 wins at Talladega.
2. Martin Truex, Jr – Scoring a lot of fantasy points at a restrictor plate race is not an easy task. A top 10 finish is great, but that does not guarantee a lot of points. A driver has to score place differential points in order to have a successful fantasy day. Starting in the back, moving through the draft to the front and avoiding the big wreck is a headache that no driver wants to deal with, except Martin Truex, Jr. He’s pulled this off in 3 of the last 5 plate races.
3. Kevin Harvick – He’s good everywhere. Deal with it. He has a top 15 finish in 11 of the last 13 plate races and his top 5% at Talladega ranks 5th. What really separates Harvick from the field is that he has a win in his pocket. He’s already advanced to the next round of the playoffs. Harvick does not have to drive scared. Taking risks at 200 miles per hour in a pack of 40 cars is not advisable, but worrying about wrecking at 200 miles per hour is much worse.
4. Kurt Busch – I like to target drivers that finish (preferably in the top 10) at restrictor plate races. I don’t worry about fast laps or domination. Survival supersedes supremacy. Kurt Busch has 7 finishes of 12th or better in the last 10 plate races (technically, 7 top 12s in the last 8 plate races). Kurt is safe, but he can also win. A driver needs to be inside the top 10 at the end in order to make a push, and that’s exactly where Kurt runs.
5. Denny Hamlin – At intermediate and short tracks, speed means everything. Any driver with any car can finish inside the top 10 at Talladega, but those cars rarely win. The winner is the car with the best engine and the best chassis. Dale Earnhardt Jr., and Brad Keselowski’s dominance is one part skill and one part car. Hamlin may have two wrecks in his last two Talladega races, but he has 7 top 10s in the last 11 plate races and a win in the 2016 Daytona 500.
LONG SHOTS TO SCORE BIG
1. Austin Dillon – The 3 car is battling to advance into the next round. Dillon looked good at Kansas (6th), and now he travels to one of his best tracks. His average finish of 14th at restrictor plate races is the best in NASCAR (13 races).
2. Clint Bowyer – The year in purgatory is almost over. This weekend is one last bright spot. At plate tracks, the small team engines can compete. Some drivers have an innate ability to race at plate tracks. Bowyer has it. Bowyer has the second best top 20% at Talladega (73%).
3. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. – This is worn out knowledge, but it’s useful. “Wrecky” Stenhouse does not wreck at the tracks that are notorious for wrecks (Bristol and Talladega). His worst finish is 26th at Talladega. The other 5 races are all top 20s (average finish of 10th over those races).
Kasey Kahne – Over the last 7 races, Kahne has the 3rd best average finish (8th). Kahne started turning his season around 25 races ago. Over that span, he has 21 top 20 finishes (average finish of 13.6).
Kyle Busch – The longest current top 10 streak is 6 and it belongs to Rowdy. His team struggled with changing track temperatures last week, but the 18 car still took home a top 5.
Jimmie Johnson – The legend is back. Johnson has the 3rd best average finish in the five playoff races (6th). Over that span, his 80 fantasy points per race leads NASCAR.
- Brad Keselowski (Spring 2016)
- Joey Logano (Fall 2015)
- Dale Earnhardt, Jr. (Spring 2015)
- Brad Keselowski (Fall 2014)
- Denny Hamlin (Spring 2014)
PICK TO WIN
Kurt Busch – His teammate, Kevin Harvick, has already advanced to the third round and his other teammates aren’t in the playoffs. I’ll take the driver that consistently runs up front and has three allies.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.