The PGA TOUR travels to Las Vegas for the Shriners Hospital for Children Open (SHCO) at TPC Summerlin. This week’s field will consist of some players making their season debut like Tony Finau, Brooks Koepka, Matthew Wolff and Webb Simpson along with some making the trip from Wine Country to Sin City like former champions Patrick Cantlay and Bryson DeChambeau. The average odds from the last five winners at SHCO is +14900 with winners like Rod Pampling at +27500 in 2016, Smylie Kaufman at +25000 in 2015 and Ben Martin at +17500 in 2014 inflating this number. Simpson, Cantlay and DeChambeau all had odds below +2000 so this tournament caters to all types of golfers. Here are my favorite bets leading into the tournament.
Best Score: Round 3 – Phil Mickelson (+138) over Gary Woodland (-125)Putting faith in Phil is always a risky endeavor with his style of play, but he’s playing better over his past two days than he has over his past two months, ranking 10th in SG: Ball-striking. Woodland’s form has been amazing dating back to his U.S. Open win losing strokes with his irons in only one out of his past six tournaments, but hasn’t had the same success over his first two rounds ranking 68th in SG: Approach-the-green. Woodland is good enough to turn his poor iron play around this weekend, so I wouldn’t talk you out of chasing his long-term success over a streaky player like Mickelson, but the same guy who can put up a double-bogey on a par-5 is the same guy who can chip one in for eagle on a par-4, so I guess I’m taking the bait. Don’t let me down, lefty.
Best Score – Round 2: Brian Harman (+110) over Abraham Ancer (+105)It’s logical to think Ancer should be more aggressive than Harman being five strokes back, but Harman continued his strong play ranking second in SG: Off-the-tee and fifth in SG: Ball-striking in Round 1. Ancer, on the other hand, couldn’t get anything going with his putter nor with his irons, ranking 57th in SG: Approach and 94th in SG: Putting. Harman’s seven birdies may regress in Round 2, but not by too much as he ranks sixth in opportunities gained and inside the top-20 in birdies or better gained over his last two tournaments.
Adam Scott to Win +1700If you’re looking to bet at the top of the board, Scott is the best value gaining an average of four strokes with his irons of his last five tournaments. He still finished inside the top-20 with losing close to five strokes off-the-tee and has struggled with his accuracy hitting his tee shots, but TPC Summerlin is a fairly easy course to find the fairways and isn’t very penal when you miss them. Scott, who played his college golf at the University of Las Vegas (UNLV) should find some comfort in the desert even though he hasn’t played here before.
Scottie Scheffler to Win +5500This is a prime spot for the rookie to start his season off strong and get a win. His ball-striking is fantastic and TPC Summerlin is a spot where birdies can be made; Scheffler ranks third in birdies or better gained over his last three tournaments.
Brian Harman to Win +8000 | Top-5 +1400Harman has been great during the swing season finishing with a third at the Greenbrier and just inside the top-15 last week at Silverado in Napa Valley. Harman has now gained 12.5 strokes in ball-striking ranking fifth over the last two tournaments.
Kyle Stanley +12500 | Top-5 +2000Stanley has been a favorite of mine going back to last season and if he can get his putter going, he should be able to compete at TPC Summerlin. He’s now gained strokes ball-striking in seven of his last eight tournaments dating back to last year’s U.S. Open and now we get him back on bentgrass greens where he putts ‘better’ than the other surfaces (bentgrass, bermuda).
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