Kevin Harvick

Rankings below are based on a mixture of expected output and DraftKings’ NASCAR salaries for that Sunday’s race in Arizona. The ordering is not based on the highest projected fantasy totals, but rather by value of each driver.


Set your lineups here: NAS $400K Piston [$100K to 1st]

(FPPK = average fantasy points per $1,000 of salary.)

1. Kyle Busch ($12,000) – The last time NASCAR ran a low downforce package race at Phoenix was in the fall of 2018. Kyle Busch won that race and scored the most fantasy points. (2.5 FPPK)

2. Kevin Harvick ($11,300) – His 2019 Phoenix races were unremarkable, but those races were in the high downforce package. This weekend, the low downforce package returns to the short track. Harvick was the king of the desert in the high powered, low downforce stock car. (4.4 FPPK)

3. Chase Elliott ($9,600) – In the six Phoenix races in the low downforce package (Elliott’s rookie season to 2019), Elliott finished with 6th most hog points (fast lap and laps led points) or better in each race. He’s never slow at Phoenix. (4.7 FPPK)

4. Denny Hamlin ($10,200) – In the fall 2017 fall race at Phoenix, Hamlin scored 74 hog points. After a feud with Chase Elliott boiled over, he finished 35th. Kyle Busch copied Hamlin’s 2017 setup and scored 65 hog points in the 2018 spring race. (5.5 FPPK)

5. Brad Keselowski ($10,400) – In the low downforce package of 2018, Keselowski scored 52 fantasy points in the spring race and 80 points in the fall race. The package switch and having a new crew chief might prevent BK from replicating those numbers. (2.8 FPPK)

6. Joey Logano ($10,700) – At the beginning of his tenure at Penske, Logano earned seven top-10 singles in eight Phoenix races (including a win). Since the win, his best finishes were a 9th and a 10th place finish, but those came in the high downforce package last season. (3.0 FPPK)

7. Martin Truex, Jr. ($11,600) – One guy that might be sad to see the high downforce package leave is Truex. He ran really well at the short flat tracks in this package. In the low downforce races at Phoenix, his best score was 55 fantasy points. (2.3 FPPK)

8. Kurt Busch ($8,100) – The veteran drivers should be able to switch back to a racing package that resembles the packages that they’ve raced their entire career. The 2019 package was completely foreign to the veterans, but the 2020 short track package is their wheelhouse. (2.1 FPPK)

9. Kyle Larson ($8,800) – No one is happier to see the return of the low downforce package than Kyle Larson. Unfortunately, this is not one of his favorite tracks. Larson can rip fast lap times in practice, but in the past, he never had the long-run speed needed to win at Phoenix. (3.0 FPPK)

10. Clint Bowyer ($7,900) – Last year does not mean anything this weekend. Bowyer’s continued struggles in the high downforce package are not going away, but he can revitalize his career at Phoenix and the short tracks in the low downforce package. (3.7 FPPK)

11. Aric Almirola ($7,700) – In 2018, Almirola scored two top 10 finishes at Phoenix. The more telling stat is that Almirola earned a top-10 finish in the fall 2017 Phoenix race while driving for Richard Petty Motorsports. (2.4 FPPK)

12. Ryan Blaney ($9,900)DFS players have to make a choice. Do you value the 2019 short track data in the high downforce package? If so, then Blaney should be on DFS players’ radar because he led 94 laps in the spring 2019 race. (6.0 FPPK)

13. Alex Bowman ($9,300) – The Hendrick Chevys have been the best cars in the high downforce package in 2020, and Bowman is leading the way. Phoenix will be a major test for this team. Did the team spend too much time this offseason preparing for the high downforce races? (5.6 FPPK)

14. Erik Jones ($8,500) – This could be a tough week for Jones. He began his Cup career just as the low downforce was being phased out. Last year, he started slowly but got the hang of the high downforce package. Now, his team is forced to adapt to the low downforce again. (3.9 FPPK)

15. Christopher Bell ($6,500) – The high downforce package will be terrible for Bell, and it will often suppress his salary. That means it will be common for Bell to be underpriced heading into a low downforce, short track race. Bell was one of the best Xfinity short track racers in the last decade. (0.8 FPPK)

16. William Byron ($8,300) – In his rookie season, Byron finished 9th and 12th in the two Phoenix races. This time he’ll be driving for Hall of Fame crew chief and four-time Phoenix winner, Chad Knaus. (1.3 FPPK)

17. Matt DiBenedetto ($7,300)DFS players have never seen Matt DiBenedetto race good equipment in a low downforce race. A decade ago, DiBenedetto ran a handful of Xfinity races for Joe Gibbs, but that doesn’t really matter for this weekend’s race. (5.1 FPPK)

18. Austin Dillon ($7,500) – Among the twice a year race tracks, Phoenix is Dillon’s worst track. He has two top-10 finishes in 12 races and an average finish of 21st. (5.4 FPPK)

19. Cole Custer ($6,300) – He wasn’t an exceptional short track racer, but that doesn’t matter. This price is too low for an SHR car, and it’s too low for a driver that just spent two seasons driving low downforce cars at short tracks. (1.5 FPPK)

20. Jimmie Johnson ($9,000) – Just when Jimmie Johnson and his team are turning the corner and win number 84 seems imminent, the racing package changes. Bouncing between the packages is a lot of pressure for the team, but Johnson should easily adjust to this style of racing. (3.0 FPPK)

For sports betting, head over to DraftKings Sportsbook or download the DK Sportsbook app.

Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game.

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.