In the CFB Game Breakdown, Russell Clay looks at and evaluates the ten most DFS-friendly matchup for the Saturday slates.
Illinois vs Penn State
Line: -4 Penn State
Saquon Barkley ($6,600) will once again be a player I highly suggest in all formats, even considering he underwhelmed last week. He has the skill and has proven results to back it up. With two 190 or more rushing yard performances under his belt, don’t be surprised if he does something similar this weekend.
Chris Godwin ($4,600) has established himself as the top receiving option in the Penn State passing game. While I’m not a fan of their passing game as a whole this week, Godwin has stand-alone value as a tournament play.
Geronimo Allison ($5,100) has been over 17.9 DK points in five of his last six games. He’s in a very similar situation to Godwin. I don’t like the Illinois passing game this week, but Allison is absolutely an asset that’s worth playing.
USC vs California
Line: +5.5 California
I expect Jared Goff ($8,200) to get on track this week, but that still doesn’t make me feel comfortable about his price. He’s been overpriced all season, and while he does have a reasonable floor, there’s better options in your cash game lineups.
Kenny Lawler ($5,700) Is super cheap for a player that’s gone over 25 DK points four times already this year. He had a rough time against the tough defenses of UCLA and Utah, but that’s to be expected. Lawler is their main red zone target in the passing game, and has nine receiving touchdowns on the season. He already had three multi-touchdown games to his name this year, don’t be shocked if he makes it four.
Juju Smith-Schuster ($7,300) is always underpriced, but I’m not complaining. Smith-Schuster has scored 28.9 DK points or more in five of his seven games this year. He’s gone over 80 receiving yards in every game. This price makes him a must play/force him into your lineup whenever you can.
Colorado vs UCLA
Line: -23 UCLA
Josh Rosen($7,600), Paul Perkins ($7,100) and Thomas Duarte ($5,700) make up a rare time where I’d suggest stacking the passing game and running game together. 23 point favorites at home, this should yield a nice return in cash games.
Jordan Payton($5,800) doesn’t have the same type of ceiling as Duarte, but he does get a lot of targets, and with the way Josh Rosen has been playing lately, he’s a great pivot play.
Tulsa vs SMU
Line: +2.5 SMU
Put simply, I don’t trust Dane Evans($8,300) in the post-Keevan Lucas-injury world. He WAS a great play early in the year, especially when he was so cheap. But that well has dried up and he’s now consistently one of the most expensive quarterbacks in whatever slate he’s in.
Matt Davis (7,600) is a more appealing option to me, as a tournament play. He’s got the upside and Tulsa’s defense is one of the worst in the nation. Combine that with the fast pace of the Tulsa offense, and you’re looking at a really high floor for Davis.
Courtland Sutton ($4,900) is an automatic stacking option if you play Davis, but he also has stand-alone value. Sutton only has one game below 14.6 DK points on the year. The price is what makes this such a positive move.
Maryland vs Iowa
Line: -17 Iowa
Akrum Wadley ($5,700) is officially the starter again this week, after going for 200 and four touchdowns against a tough Northwestern defense. Iowa is a 17 point favorite at home, Don’t be surprised if Wadley has a similar performance to last week. Wadley is an automatic play, you won’t find any other of this type of feature back near this price point.
C.J. Beathard ($5,600) is a nice hedging or stacking option for Wadley. He’s not afraid to run in the red zone, so he’s a potential vulture.
Perry Hills($5,900) is the best cheap option at quarterback. He’s gone over 94 rushing yards in each of the last three weeks and scored over 23 DK points in that same span. High floor and high ceiling for the price.
Oklahoma vs Kansas
Line: +39 Kansas
This game last year provided us with the all-time single game rushing record. This year is much different for the Oklahoma offense, as they’ve really diluted their roles. However, both Semaje Perine ($6,700) and Joe Mixon ($6,000) are great values this week. It shouldn’t take much for both to crack this Kansas defense. They should both hit and exceed value, quickly.
I’m not nearly as comfortable with Baker Mayfield ($8,400) because of the clear blowout potential. Same goes for Sterling Shepard ($6,400) at his price. They simply don’t feed him the targets like they did last year, it’s time to accept that.
Tulane vs Memphis
Line: -32.5 Memphis
Paxton Lynch ($10,100) is a great prospect, and played amazing last week against Tulsa. The difference this week is that Tulane doesn’t have the offensive firepower to stay with them for a large portion of this game. It’s not a question that Lynch will dominate this game, but how many possessions will he have before the blowout is on?
I love Anthony Miller ($5,700) at his price. While I don’t see Lynch hitting value, I do see him going for at least 300 passing yards and two touchdowns. Miller has been the leading receiving in three of the last four games, I expect that trend to continue.
Your guess is as good as mine with the Memphis running game. I’m staying far away in all formats.
Vanderbilt vs Houston
Line: -12 Houston
Greg Ward Jr. ($8,200) is priced reasonably after his first disappointing fantasy performance of the season. Before last week(23 DK points), Ward hadn’t had a week under 30 DK points, and he had four games of 40 DK points or more.
Kenneth Farrow ($7,200) had three rushing touchdowns last week, which is the main reason Ward didn’t hit value. It was the third time this season Farrow had two or more rushing touchdowns, so this is something that should be planned for. Farrow is a great hedge, especially in tournaments that you have other lineups with Ward in them.
If you want a piece of the Houston passing game, I’d look to Chance Allen ($4,200), who is $2,300 cheaper than Demarcus Ayers ($6,500).
Arizona vs Washington
Line: -4.5 Washington
There’s a good chance Myles Gaskin ($6,200) steals the show once again in this game. The freshman running back has now recorded three straight 100 yard games, while having at one touchdown in each. His price is steadily climbing, but it’s still very manageable for this week.
Cayleb Jones ($5,100) finally showed some of the promise we got a glimpse of last season, putting up 31 DK points against Washington State last week. His price has jumped up, but he’s still a nice tournament play.
If Nick Wilson ($6,100) plays, he’s a great value at his price, and a potential tournament winning player. However, it doesn’t appear promising that he will. Jared Baker($5,700) is a solid option behind him.
Stanford vs Washington State
Line: +10.5 Washington State
This is a tough draw for Luke Falk ($8,500) and the Washington State passing game. Their pricing, however, makes for a lot of contrarian play stacking options. Regardless of opponent Falk always has a high ceiling, so he’s definitely worthy of a tournament lineup or two.
Gabe Marks ($6,700) is averaging 33 DK points a game in his last four games. He hasn’t had a game with less than five receptions. He’s scored a touchdown in six of his seven games. Long story short, matchup shouldn’t be a worry with a player of Marks’ caliber.
Christian McCaffrey ($9,400) is a great play in all formats, even considering the harsh pricing. He’s scored 97.8 DK points in his last two games. Don’t overthink it. He’s the second most expensive player in this slate, and my top rated play. Washington State may be able to contain him for a quarter or two, but, eventually, the floodgates are opening.