In the CFB game breakdown, Russell Clay looks at and evaluates the ten most DFS-friendly matchups for the Saturday slate.
Mississippi vs Memphis
Line: +10 Memphis
While 70 is a relatively high O/U, I’d be surprised if we didn’t see more. Both teams have shown tremendous ability to score so far this year, and should keep the gameflow of this game humming.
While I like Paxton Lynch ($8,000) as a player, I’m probably avoiding him at his price this week. He will get around his season average, but that won’t win you anything, especially in tournaments. Chad Kelly ($7,400) is a different story. While he’s been inconsistent, Kelly fits the bill as a tournament play. He’s already had three games above 36 DK points, so the ceiling is there.
Staying away from the Memphis running game. They can all break big plays, and are all involved in the game plan, but guessing who’s week it is, is a fruitless endeavor. I do like Jaylen Walton ($4,500) as a hedge on his quarterback. He’s been priced similar all season, and has two game of 20 DK points or more.
Laquon Treadwell ($5,700) has gone over 130 yards in two of his last three games. I’m not sold the passing game is finished being extremely inconsistent in receiver distribution, but he’s a solid value at that price in a tournament. Markell Pack($3,000) has gone over 10 DK points in all but one game this year, he’s a nice punt play to gain cap in other areas.
Not paying for Mose Frazier ($5,500) or Sam Craft ($4,900), but I do like Anthony Miller at his price, again, for tournament purposes.
Tulsa vs East Carolina
Line: -13.5 East Carolina
This game presents the best values of the slate.
Dane Evans ($8,000) is finally priced correctly, which is bittersweet. It’s nice that he’s being noticed, but now he’s much harder to fit in. I like him as a player, but I’m worried about the loss of star receiver Keevan Lucas, so I’m staying away. Blake Kemp ($7,100) is intriguing at his price. With the high team totals and East Carolina as big favorites, this has the makings of Kemp’s best fantasy performance of the season. While that wouldn’t be saying much, if he can get you over 25 DK points at his price, you’ve hit value.
Zach Langer ($6,600) once again presents fantastic value as a cash game play. Langer hasn’t had under 19 DK points this year, and has at least one touchdown in every game. Chris Hairston($5,200) has had an up-and-down season. He scored almost half of his seasonal long DK points in the first game of the year, and then
I’m avoiding Keyarris Garrett ($6,900) because I like Joshua Atkinson’s ($5,400) price so much more. Both are good plays, but that extra $1,500 is huge, especially if you want to get someone like Corey Coleman in your lineup. Isaiah Jones ($5,800) is my favorite wide receiver play of the week. His high floor and feature role in the offense compounded with the fact that he’s facing one of the worst defenses in the nation is going to work out well.
Texas Tech vs Kansas
Line: +31.5 Kansas
Patrick Mahomes ($9,500) is a really nice play this week, even at his price and the blowout factor considered. Seth Russell is the more appealing player at their price point, so if you play Mahomes in tournaments, you might be surprised with the ownership percentage.
If you are playing Mahomes in cash games, I’d probably suggest playing DeAndre Washington ($6,300) alongside him to guarantee both the running and passing production.
With Devin Lauderdale ($4,400) set to return, there’s no telling beyond Jakeem Grant ($7,200) how the production will be split up. I’m not trusting any of the lower priced options, unless I’m using them sprinkled into big tournament lineups.
No Kansas players, save yourself the trouble.
West Virginia vs Baylor
Line: -21 Baylor
Don’t get cute. Don’t worry about price. Do whatever you can to get Seth Russell ($9,500) and Corey Coleman ($8,200) together in your cash lineups. Jay Lee ($5,600) is an interesting cash option, It might be a good idea to team him up with Russell and Coleman. KD Cannon ($5,300) has proven not to be a trustworthy options of late, and even with his price steadily decreasing, he’s a fade until he shows he can hit value.
Wendell Smallwood ($6,200) is an important player to monitor. He’s been injured of late and hasn’t been practicing, but that didn’t stop him from putting up 27 DK points against Oklahoma State last week. If he’s good to go, he’s a worth a cash game play. If he’s not, Rushel Shell ($4,100) becomes a really nice value at his price.
I’m not touching any of the West Virginia receivers. Their stats are inflated from playing inferior competition the first few weeks of the season.
Alabama vs Texas A&M
Line: +4 Texas A&M
Derrick Henry (7,300) is a super exciting play at his new, reduced price. Henry has had a touchdown in every game and over 95 rushing yards in all but one. In what is expected to be a really close game, expect Henry to get 20-25 touches on the road.
One of the reasons I’m really excited about Henry is that the passing game is going to struggle in this game. Calvin Ridley ($5,200) has emerged as the heir apparent to Amari Cooper, and is a solid tournament value, but everyone else is off limits.
Alabama’s defense has been strong so far in 2015, but in their loss to Ole Miss, they gave up 43. There’s a realistic chance something (to a lesser extent) could happen this weekend, so Kyle Allen ($6,900) is my favorite contrarian quarterback play of the weekend. Tournament only play, but there’s more than a few ways Allen could reach and surpass value.
Christian Kirk ($5,900) is bordering on matchup proof with his floor, he’s a solid play in both tournament and cash lineups, even if you aren’t pairing him with Allen.
Akron vs Bowling Green
Line: -11.5 Bowling Green
On a slate with Patrick Mahomes and Seth Russell, Matt Johnson ($9,600) is the most expensive quarterback in the early slate. He’s a tricky play this week, and someone I’m having a hard time fitting into lineups. If you’re playing Johnson, you basically need to stack him with Roger Lewis ($8,400), who is more expensive than Corey Coleman this week. If you’re playing tournaments, I’d suggest diversifying with this combination, but would not feel comfortable using them with cash games, considering how little you have to invest elsewhere.
They’ve done a good job of pricing up the secondary options in the Bowling Green passing game, but Ronnie Moore ($5,600) sets a nice floor for cash games.
Thomas Woodson ($6,800) and Conor Hundley ($4,800) make for a cheap stacking option. They have more value this week as they’ll be trying to keep up with their high powered foe.
TCU vs Iowa State
Line: +20.5 Iowa State
Trevone Boykin ($9,700) and Josh Doctson ($8,400) should be a part of your plan this week. With the way this slate works out, your hand is forced. Of course, you could always go running back heavy, but trusting low priced quarterbacks to produce is a big gamble. For cash games, I would suggest putting it all on these two, no easier way to get 80 points. For tournaments It’s understandable to shake things up with the high-end running backs.
Mike Warren ($6,500) is coming off a 245 rushing yard performance against Texas Tech. He has three straight games with over 125 rushing yards and has secured a workhorse role, all in just his freshman season. TCU’s defense is no slouch, but based on touches and volume, I still like Warren as a tournament play.
USC vs Notre Dame
Line: -6.5 Notre Dame
Juju Smith-Schuster ($7,000) has had over 80 receiving yards in every game this year, and while he disappointed owners everywhere last week with a 13.2 DK point performance, It shouldn’t scare you away from investing heavily in him this week, in all formats.
Will Fuller’s ($6,300) production has fallen off with the constant quarterback injuries, but the talent remains. Fuller is a great hedge of Smith-Schuster at that price point. He’s a great tournament play who’s already shown the ability to put up 30 or more DK point outings.
C.J. Prosise ($7,900) hasn’t found a defense that could stop him yet. He’s scored 27 or more DK points in his last five games. In the only game he got shut down running the ball, Prosise had 100 yards receiving. It’s certainly a tough group to compete with for running backs, but with price considered, I don’t see a value difference between him and the top options.
Oregon vs Washington
Line: -3 Washington
How the mighty have fallen. Never would I have thought that there could be an Oregon game that I’d only consider one of their players for fantasy purposes. That’s where we stand. Of course, I’m talking about Royce Freeman ($8,600). Freeman has 90.7 DK points over the last two weeks, and is literally the only way Oregon can move the ball offensively. While a road game where you’re the underdog isn’t ideal for most running backs, Freeman is gameflow agnostic.
Myles Gaskin ($5,300) is a great tournament play at his price. Dwayne Washington’s ($3,500) back to back weeks with big plays has masked the touch distribution between he and Gaskin. At his price, Gaskin is absolutely worth finding out if Washington believes they have a feature back.
I’m not touching any quarterbacks or wide receivers in this game. Nobody on either team has emerged as a consistent fantasy option.
Arizona vs Colorado
Line: +8 Colorado
Anu Solomon ($6,900) played great in his return start, as he was cleared the concussion he sustained two weeks prior. However, while he played, great his fantasy stat-line was terrible. 11 DK points would be a killer for any lineup. That isn’t something you need to worry about this week, though, as they won’t be running away with this one. Solomon has a huge range of outcomes, but the upside is higher than currently perceived. I like playing him in tournament lineups.
If you want to live life on the wild side, stacking him with Cayleb Jones ($4,300) is something that would be very low owned. Jones hasn’t done much of anything this year, especially without Solomon, but he did have over 1000 receiving yards last year, and with his starting quarterback ready to go, this could be his welcome to the 2015 season.
With Nick Wilson’s ($7,000) status in doubt, keep Jared Baker ($3,700) in mind, in any lineup you want to free up space. He’s gotten ten carries two straight games, and with Wilson potentially missing the game, has a chance to be featured. For that price, it’s worth finding out.