Dane Evans $8300
Oh how I love days that I get to roster Dane Evans. The Tulsa offense is a ton of fun to watch, while being incredibly frustrating at the same time. Evans isn’t a great quarterback, but he’s throwing to really good receivers and he’s throwing to them a lot. He’s thrown at least 35 passes in 5 straight games and should throw at least 40 in this one if SMU can keep it remotely close. He’s coming off of a gem of a performance against Memphis and has had an extra day to prepare for this one, so I fully expect Evans to be very sharp against a bad defense.
Brett Rypien $6600
I’m not sure who hates Brett Rypien so much, but apparently our pricing guys don’t respect him at all. He’s one of the most consistent fantasy options that exist in the world, and he’s consistently in the $6k range, with what seems to be a 20-point floor. He laid an egg against Utah State, which isn’t that shocking considering how good that defense really is. This week, he gets an elite matchup with UNLV, a team that will pretty much let a good team like Boise State impose their will on them. If Rypien doesn’t get at least 22 fantasy points this week, I’ll lose all faith in humanity.
Samaje Perine $6700
Perine finally got a full workload again last week against that miserable Texas Tech run defense. Well, KU is just as bad, but there’s a downside to it all, KU won’t be able to stay in the game very long with this potent OU offense. That being said, I think Perine will still see something like 15-18 carries. After all, Perine did set the all time rushing record against KU last year. I won’t predict anything huge, but if he gets 15+ carries, he’s a mortal lock for 100 yards and a touchdown, giving him a floor of 19 fantasy points.
Jeremy McNichols $7900
I mentioned how bad UNLV is in the Brett Rypien blurb so I won’t beat a dead horse; they’re bad. McNichols is priced a bit more appropriately than his QB, but he’s still a bit underpriced. The way prices are set up, it’s difficult to play expensive running backs and not hate your lineup. However, I think this is a week to pay up and play Jeremy McNichols. The matchup really won’t get much better for him and he really is the safest option money can buy this week.
Juju Smith-Schuster $7300
You don’t hear much about Juju Smith this year for some reason and it’s a shame. He’s one of the most talented players in the country and this week, he has a sweet matchup with California, a team allowing 260 yards per game through the air. Juju has at least 28 fantasy points in 5 of his last 6 games and his price is just right to keep his ownership rates lower than they should be.
Pharoh Cooper $7000
Cooper’s price is FINALLY where it should be. Texas A&M actually has a pretty solid defense this year, but nobody in their secondary is going to be able to contain Cooper. Last week, Laquon Treadwell caught 5 passes for 102 yards and a touchdown. Cooper receives a bigger volume of targets than Treadwell does, so I can easily see Pharoh out producing Treadwell’s line from last week based on sheer volume alone. His explosiveness is only an added bonus.
David Blough $4900/Austin Appleby $4300
Austin Appleby has been cleared to play this week and couldn’t come back to a better matchup. Blough hasn’t been great since Appleby went down, so I fully expect Appleby to reclaim his starting job, but either QB is in play if starting. Nebraska is allowing 321 yards per game through the air and whichever QB gets the start should be able to throw for at least 250 and a TD, probably more. Appleby also has the added upside of being a dual threat QB, which is always nice.
Christian Hackenberg $6000
I typed in “Christian” and my autocorrect changed it to “Christina” which seems pretty accurate to me for Mr. Hackenberg. However, he’s in another great spot against a bad defense with a good price. I wrote about him last week and he produced against a bad Marlyand defense. Illinois isn’t nearly as bad as Maryland, but don’t let their numbers deceiver you, they’re bad. Wisconsin’s backup QB Bart Houston came last week after Joel Stave went down and threw for 232 yards and 2 touchdowns on this Illinois team. Hackenberg should easily have another 20+ point fantasy game while allowing his defense to lead him to another victory.
Ervin Philips $3800
Ervin Philips is basically a dirt cheap wide receiver playing as a running back. He’s much more involved in the passing game than he is in the ground game, and that is perfect for us and his fantasy output. He’s going to get approximately 10 touches, most of them being catches out of the backfield, and has a legitimate chance to score, as he’s scored 4 touchdowns in 4 games played this year. The FSU defense is legit, but so are the Pitt and Virginia defenses, against both of which he scored 16 and 17 fantasy points respectively.
Chris Carson $4100
Nobody on Texas Tech’s defense can tackle. Nobody. It looks like Chris Carson will be back to full strength this week against Texas Tech. He was probably full strength last week, but was not needed against Kansas. This week should be a much closer game for OSU, and Carson should be relied upon somewhat heavily as the Cowboys will look to have a similar game plan as OU did last week.
Brandon Reilly $3600
Reilly is one of the best punt plays we’ve had in a while. Purdue is a pretty mediocre defense, all things considered, and Reilly is still way underpriced. He had back to back bad games, but bounced back last week and should perform similarly again this week. I could easily see another 5 catch performance out of Reilly this week.
Courtland Sutton $4900
Sutton is a stud that has an incredible matchup this week. I don’t think it really matters if Matt Davis gets benched again or not, as Sutton has everything else working in his favor this week. Tulsa is 301 passing yards per game, and Sutton shouldn’t have any problems having yet another big game.
Tulsa (-3.5) vs SMU O/U 76
I already talked about Dane Evans, and I’ll give a few of my thoughts on Keyarris Garrett in a minute, but this is the game to stack if you’re looking to stack one. Obviously, Evans is a great play and he’s my top QB play of the day. Keyarris is also a solid play, but his price is over inflated and his ownership rates are going to be through the roof after last week. I’m a little leery of him, because that 3 TD performance was very flukey as he’s never been a big TD guy. Josh Atkinson is the Tulsa WR that I want. He’s $6300 and has been a model of consistency this year, scoring 20 fantasy points in all but two games, both of which he was less than half a point away from 20.
On the SMU side, we have a bit of an interesting situation brewing. QB Matt Davis had a terrible game last week against USF and was benched for backup Darrell Colbert, as he could not move the ball at all. Davis didn’t lose his job, as coach Chad Morris assured the media, but he definitely has a shorter leash now. SMU stud receiver Courtland Sutton is still very cheap for only $4900 and is one of the best value plays of the entire day.
Underowned QB/WR Pair
C.J. Beathard/Matt VandeBerg – Iowa
This week, it’s Iowa that gets the fun Maryland matchup. It’s very rare that you see Iowa with a 35 point team total, but Maryland will do that to them. Christian Hackenberg threw for 325 yards and 3 touchdowns last week against this same team. I don’t expect Beathard to do quite the same, but Beathard does have a bit more running ability than Hack, so he could easily equal Hackenberg’s fantasy total. Matt VandeBerg is the number 1 WR for Iowa and is in a great spot against the apathetic Marlyand secondary.
Keyarris Garrett $7600
Don’t get me wrong, I love Keyarris Garrett and he’s in a good spot, but recency bias is going to artificially inflate his own rates, even at his increased price tag. He’s not going to catch 14 passes for 268 yards and 3 touchdowns again. As amazing as it was, and as much as I’d like to say it can happen again, it just won’t. Before last week, Garrett had 2 touchdowns on the year. I’m not saying don’t play him at all, I’m just saying be cautious with his price tag.
Depth Chart News
Paul Perkins – RB UCLA
After leaving last week’s game with an injury, Jim Mora came out and said it was “not good”. Well, Jim Mora is an idiot, as Perkins injury was very minor and he is already back practicing as of yesterday. He should play and is a great play against a bad Colorado defense.
Seth Russell – QB Baylor
If you haven’t already heard, Seth Russell is out for at least the rest of the regular season with a neck injury. Jarrett Stidham should fill in admirably, but we won’t know until next Thursday.
Jordan Canzeri – RB Iowa
Unfortunately, we don’t get to roster Jordan Canzeri in the best matchup he would have all year long. Akrum Wadley is listed as the starter for Saturday and is a great, mid-tier play this week against Maryland.