Seth Russell $9400
It’s no secret that the Baylor offense is the best in college football, but matching them up with an Iowa State team that’s allowing 290 passing yards per game is not fair. Seth Russell should easily throw for another 350 and 3 touchdowns in this one and maybe add another touchdown on the ground. The upside is limitless in this matchup.
Baker Mayfield $8700
I think, all things considered, Mayfield is probably a slightly better play than Russell. Texas Tech is a much better offense that will be able to turn this game in to a shootout, whereas Iowa State has no chance to keep it close with Baylor and that game could get way out of hand. TTU is also allowing 290 yards per game through the air and Mayfield is playing really good football at the moment, coming off of a 5 touchdown performance at Kansas State.
Shock Linwood $6800
The matchup with Iowa State really just doesn’t get a whole lot better. Linwood is coming off of a very mediocre game, mostly because Seth Russell was too busy crushing souls to let Linwood take part in any of the fun. I think there will be a bit more balance in production between the two this week, and Shock’s price is the best it’s been all year.
Saquon Barkley $5600
Maryland is allowing 197 yards on the ground, which is just insane. Penn State isn’t really the greatest offense, but even they can move the ball on Maryland. Barkley has really only played in 4 games and has at least 115 rushing yards and/or a touchdown in every game this year. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Barkley have his highest output of the season in this game against the worst defense in the Big 10.
Tajae Sharpe $7200
Somehow, Kent State became only the second team all year to hold Tajae Sharpe under 130 yards, the other team being Notre Dame, possibly giving some validity to their stout defensive numbers. Toledo won’t have that same fortune this week against Sharpe. They have one of the least talented secondaries in all of the FBS and Sharpe leads the FBS with 16.2 targets per game.
Aaron Burbridge $6700
Aaron Burbridge is back! There was a time early in the season that I thought he was going to be the best DFS receiver in the country, and then Connor Cook remembered he was Connor Cook and things slowed down a bit for a couple games. Any player that can torch the Michigan defense the way that Burbridge did last week is obviously a talented receiver, match that talent with the incredible matchup with Indiana and a nice tag and Burbridge becomes a great play.
Christian Hackenberg $5600
It almost makes me sick to my stomach that I have to talk about Hackenberg, but he’s one of the better value plays of this slate at the quarterback position. Maryland one of the worst defense of all the power conferences, allowing 260.8 passing yards per game and just shy of 35 points per game. Hackenberg isn’t great, but the price and matchup put him in play.
Blake Frohnapfel $5900
I wish I could say I feel a lot more comfortable with Frohno than I do Hackenberg, but they’re a very similar play this week. Frohno is going to have to throw the ball more, but I’m not entirely convinced that he’s a legitimate D1 quarterback. However, he does one thing well, and that is destroy bad defenses, which is exactly what Toledo is. Their overall numbers aren’t completely terrible, but they have yet to play a good offense. I fully expect Frohnapfel to bounce back after a dismal performance last week and put up another 300 yard, 3 touchdown performance.
Gerard Wicks $3600
Wicks finally laid an egg last week for the first time since week 1. He continues to be, quite possibly, the best value in DFS as he’s near minimum salary, highly involved in the passing game, and has another nice matchup with Arizona, who is allowing almost 250 passing yards per game and 177 rushing yards per game. WSU is a 7 point underdog, so they should be throwing even more than normal against a mediocre defense, opening up even more opportunity for Wicks.
Corey Clement $4200
All indicators say that Corey Clement will be back this week for Wisconsin. Taiwan Deal is injured and Wisconsin loves to use two running backs regularly. Clement was dressed last week, but didn’t play as they really didn’t need him against Purdue. I don’t expect Clement to get a full workload, but I could see something like 10-15 carries if he plays. Of course, keep an eye on the injury news. If Clement doesn’t play, Dare Ogunbowale is a solid play once again.
Rodney Mills $3400
Rodney Mills is actually a tight end for UMass, but he’s so talented that his $3400 price tag is asinine. He has 3 straight games with at least 4 catches for 96 yards. Toledo isn’t going to know what to do with a tight end as talented as Mills. If he does anything less than 4 catches for 100 yards, I’ll be completely shocked. At $3400, he’s all but a must play.
Canaan Severin $4100
Most people will have no idea who Canaan Severin is and it’s a shame. The stud Virginia receiver gets no recognition because he plays for Virginia. Matt Johns has molded himself in to a solid quarterback and this week they get a wonderful matchup with a UNC team that I refuse to believe is anything close to as good as their numbers suggest. They’ve played nothing but bad offenses or run first offenses. Severin has only had one game under 14 fantasy points, and that shouldn’t change this week.
Washington State vs Arizona (-7) O/U 72
It’s kind of an ugly day of games. The highest total is a game that features an Arizona team full of players that nobody really wants to play. Anu Solomon just isn’t very good. Nick Wilson is dealing with a foot injury that kept him out of last week’s game. And they have 5 receivers that all get a pretty even amount of targets, so it’s tough to pinpoint which player will have the big game. The playable players in this game are almost all going to come from the Washington State side. Luke Falk is always a great option as he’s going to throw the ball close to 50 times. Gerard Wicks is a steal once again and is heavily involved in the passing game. Gabe Marks, River Cracraft, and Dom Williams are all very solid options at their respective prices.
Underowned QB/WR Pair
Joel Stave/Alex Erickson – Wisconsin
This pairing is just as un-sexy as last week’s pairing of Mitch Leidner and KJ May, which happened to work out nicely if you played them. Wisconsin gets the matchup with Illinois who has yet to face a team that really wants to throw the ball. Wisconsin isn’t one of those teams, but Stave and Erickson are both talented/cheap enough that this combination can really work out. I refuse to believe that Illinois is a good team and Erickson has had at least 7 catches in 3 of his last 4 games.
Anu Solomon $6900
I mentioned briefly that I don’t think Anu Solomon is very good. It’s not that I think he’s a bad play this week, because he’s in a great spot, but his price is just a little bit more expensive than I would be willing to pay for him. He’s probably going to throw for 250 yards and maybe one touchdown. He has some solid running ability, but he gets sacked too much for it to matter. He also has Jerrard Randall waiting right behind him to come in the game and use his explosive running ability to torch a defense.
Depth Chart News
Michael Brewer – QB Virginia Tech – $5500
Brewer is back, healthy, and starting this week against Duke. The matchup leaves a lot to be desired, so I wouldn’t necessarily recommend playing him for DFS purposes this week.
Corey Clement – RB Wisconsin – $4200
I already wrote about Clement, but it’s been a pretty slow week for news, so Clement gets a spot here. He’s in a great spot against Illinois and, if he plays, is a solid value this week.