Wow, this is one of the better looking days of football in a long time. Lot’s of high scoring games, good players in good matchups, and prices to exploit. Lets dig in!
Treyvon Boykin absolutely deserves the top spot, but I feel that it is unnecessary for me to talk about him because it’s such an obvious play and he’s very expensive so I’ll give a couple less expensive players as well. But, Boykin is far and away the top option of the day.
Matt Johnson $9400
Johnson torched the Memphis defense last week to the tune of 443 yards and 4 touchdowns. It’s a lot to expect of a QB to throw for 400 yards every game, but when a QB as talented as Matt Johnson gets to throw the ball 50 times per game, it’s not that outlandish. I’m not going to guarantee another 40 fantasy point game, but he’s playing in the game with the highest total of the day against a mediocre defense.
Jerrod Heard $7400
I fully expected Heard to be at least $8500 after his coming out party last week against Cal. The Oklahoma State defense is better than Cal’s, but it’s far from being a great defense. Heard ran the ball 24 times for 163 yards and 3 touchdowns. That’s the upside that he possesses as a run first QB, but he also threw for 364 yards so OSU has to respect his arm as well. I see no way Heard doesn’t score 25 fantasy points in this one.
Jordan Howard $8400
While Leonard Fournette is far and away the top RB play, he’s very expensive and therefore hard to fit in to any kind of roster. I think Jordan Howard is a similar $/point play though, so he’s going to get this spot. He showed us his floor two weeks ago by scoring 20 fantasy points. I think the 30 points he scored last week is what we can expect going forward, especially if the game script plays in his favor. He’s one of the safest DFS options there is.
Shock Linwood $7200
The Baylor offense is amazing that has so many incredible weapons, as you’ll read in a minute. Shock was very disappointing agianst SMU in their first game, and then rushed for 130 and 3 touchdowns against Lamar. It’s hard to predict how much Baylor is going to use Linwood, but against a defense as bad as Rice, it’s hard to imagine him being under 100 yards and at least one touchdown.
Baylor WR’s (Corey Coleman $8500, KD Cannon $6300, Jay Lee $6000)
I would say it’s risky to pick one of these guys, but they’re all so talented and Baylor has a team total of 55, so I honestly think they’re all in play at their respective prices. KD Cannon is the riskiest of them all as he’s more reliant on the deep ball than the other two. Jay Lee is probably the best from a $/point perspective, while Coleman has the most upside.
Josh Doctson $7500
It’s definitely necessary to get exposure to the TCU offense and I think Doctson is the way to go. He’s a bit pricy, but Texas Tech has what amounts to a less than mediocre secondary and Treyvon Boykin loves to throw the deep ball to Doctson, as evidenced by his average of almost 20 yards per reception.
Skyler Howard $6800
We finally get our first taste of West Virginia for DFS and it comes in a very nice matchup. Mayland allowed Richmond to score 21 points and Bowling Green to score 48. WVU probably isn’t as high-powered as BGSU, but they’re going to be a good offense and they’re going to score a lot of points, mainly due to the arm (and maybe a little bit of the legs) of Skyler Howard.He’s playing really well to start the year, averaging 311 yards and 2.5 TD’s in his first two contests, albeit against poor competition. I like Howards price and his upside in this game.
Driphus Jackson $5600
Rice is only projected to score 3 touchdowns, all of which should come through Jackson. He’s a talented dual threat QB that has been playing well to start the year outside of one game against Texas. The Baylor defense has many weaknesses and I think Jackson will be able to exploit them with his arms and his legs. He might not be the most popular option, but I’d be willing to bet he’s one of the top value options of the entire day at all positions.
Dwayne Washington $4600
California’s defense is very bad; Jerron Heard proved that last week in his first ever start. Washington isn’t going to touch the ball 20 times per game, but he’s going to be very efficient with his touches. He’s a pretty safe bet for at least one big play against the porous Cal defense and anything less than 15 points would be a disappointment from him this week.
Wendell Smallwood $4900
Smallwood is probably the biggest price discrepancy of the day. He saw 15 and 19 touches in WVU’s first two games which were both blowouts, and scored over 20 fantasy points in each game. He should easily see 20 carries in what projects to be a closer game than their first two, and has a solid chance at another 20 fantasy point game.
Ryan Burbrink $4800
The 4-5k range is littered with good players, Burbrink possible being the one with the highest floor/upside combination. For only $4800, you get a guy that already has 16 catches and 2 touchdowns. He’s also playing in the game that has the highest total of the day, which is always great for a “possession” wide receiver like Burbrink.
Isaiah Ford $5000
If any player in the 4-5k range can rival Burbrink as the best value, it’s Isaiah Ford. He’s the most talented player in this range and his game logs show it. He scored 21.8 fantasy points last week without scoring a touchdown. East Carolina is going to be one of the lesser secondaries in the country again this year, and Ford should have no problem exploiting them this week.
Bowling Green vs Purdue O/U 79
I’m not sure what more needs to be said about Bowling Green this week. Every player on that offense is in play as they’re projected to score 40 points. The puzzling thing is the Purdue offense. They’re starting a new QB named David Blough. He didn’t do much more than dump the ball off on short throws in his limited action against VaTech, but he shouldn’t have a problem getting comfortable against BGSU this week. Markell Jones and DJ Knox split time in the backfield and are both solid GPP plays, but a bit risky as it’s tough to tell who will get more touches. Purdue is a bit lacking from the receiver position, but DeAngelo Yancey is the most talented of the bunch and possesses some decent upside.
TCU (-7) vs Texas Tech O/U 79.5
If you’re going to full stack a single game, this is the game to do it with. Both teams are full of electrifying playmakers and I wouldn’t be surprised if this game goes over 80 points. Texas Tech’s defense is still bad and TCU apparently isn’t nearly as good as people thought they were going to be. If SMU can score 37 on TCU, Texas Tech can easily eclipse their team total of 36. Both quarterbacks are great plays, Boykin being the top play of the entire day. Green and Washington are both solid plays at their respective prices, as are pretty much all of the receivers on both teams. Doctson and Listenbee have great upside and solid floors, while Jakeem Grant is one of the most talented receivers in the country and has great rapport with Treyvon Boykin. Devin Lauderdale took a back seat to Ian Sadler last week, but they’re both nice GPP plays this week.
Underowned QB/WR Pair
Mason Rudolph/David Glidden – Oklahoma State
In all the hustle and bustle of the great value plays and the high over unders, I really think these two will get overlooked. Mason Rudolph is quietly having a solid season, partially because of David Glidden’s quiet, yet solid season. Neither player is way too cheap by any means, but Glidden is a talented receiver that has a ton of upside and Mason Rudolph is a very fundamentally sound quarterback, just the type to pick apart a mediocre Texas defense.
Western Michigan Players
This might seem like an obvious statement, but it needs to be said. Ohio State is one of the top defenses in the country, and while the WMU guys stat lines look incredible, especially Daniel Braverman, they’ve yet to face a defense close to the caliber of Ohio State, even Michigan State is a bit overrated this year.
Depth Chart News
Jeremy Johnson – QB Auburn
Johnson is getting benched in favor of Sean White or Saturday’s contest. White is not a player I would target in the late slate as this Auburn offense has a touch matchup and some serious issues to work out.
David Blough – QB Purdue
Blough is starting against Bowling Green in the highest over/under of the day, but it’s hard to imagine him with a very long leash, as controlling the turnovers is something that Purdue really needs to do, and a Freshman isn’t guaranteed to do that.
That’s about all of the news that is fantasy relevant at this point. You’re more than welcome, and encouraged, to follow me on twitter @TheJourdanCase and ask questions regarding news, strategy, or just general football questions and I’ll get back to you as soon as I can.